Opponent: Mission San Jose | Judge: Bennett Dombcik
1AC V6
1NC T-Must Implement T-Spec Appropriation DA-China Space Dominance DA-Macron CP-Viasat PIC CP-Mercury PIC Cap Good
2NR DA-China Space Dominance Case
2AR Case DA
Cal
Doubles
Opponent: Isidore Newman EE | Judge: Vishvak Bandi, Truman Le, Lindsay Van Luvanee
1AC V7
1NC
Cal Round Robin
3
Opponent: Northland Christian LB | Judge: Jared Burke, Sam Larson
1AC V5
1NC China Econ Debris Cleanup CP Mining PIC Cap Good
2NR Mining PIC
Cal Round Robin
6
Opponent: Harvard Westlake IC | Judge: Gabriel Morbeck, Joshua StPeter
1AC V5
1NC T-Spec DA-Space for Space CP-Ozone Cap Good
2NR CP-Ozone DA-Space for Space Case
2AR Case CP DA
Cal Round Robin
7
Opponent: Strath Haven AM | Judge: Aryan Jasani, Chris Theis
1AC V5
1NC CP-Nationalize Cap Good
2NR Cap Good
Emory
4
Opponent: Harker MK | Judge: Samantha McLoughlin
1AC V4
1NC Polycentrism DA Case
2NR DA Case
Emory
6
Opponent: Carnegie Vanguard SR | Judge: Cyprian Dumas
1AC V5
1NC Innovation DA Xi DA Elevators PIC
2NR PIC
Emory
4
Opponent: Harker MK | Judge: Samantha McLoughlin
1AC V4
1NC Polycentrism DA Case
2NR DA Case
Greenhill
2
Opponent: Garland AA | Judge: Serena Lu
1AC Vaccine Imperialism
1NC Innovation DA Case
2NR Innovation DA Case
2AR All
Greenhill
4
Opponent: Westwood PM | Judge: Adam Torson
1AC Vaccine Imperialism
2NR Infrastructure DA Case
2AR Case DA
Harvard Westlake
2
Opponent: Immaculate Heart BC | Judge: Claudia Ribera
1AC Cosmic Colonialism V2
1NC Broadband PIC Broadband DA Heg DA Cap Good Disease Good
1AR All Condo PICs
2NR Heg DA Case
2AR Case Heg DA
Harvard Westlake
4
Opponent: Brentwood AR | Judge: Lena Mizrahi
1AC Cosmic Colonialism v2
1NC Mining DA Regulation CP Cap Good
2NR CP DA Case
2AR All
Harvard Westlake
6
Opponent: Harker AR | Judge: Margaret Strong
1AC Cosmic Colonialism V3
1NC T-Spec Appropriation DA-Heg Cap Good Case
2NR Heg DA Case
Loyola
1
Opponent: Immaculate Heart AW | Judge: Nathan Russell
1AC Vaccine Imperialism
1NC Bioterror DA Nebel T Case Turns
1AR All
2NR Bioterror DA Case
2AR All
Loyola
4
Opponent: Memorial SC | Judge: Neville Tom
1AC Vaccine Imperialism
1NC Must Spec ROB Truth Testing A shit ton of a prioris Moral Egoism NC Counterstandard Innovation DA
1AR A Prioris Bad Comparative Worlds Must Spec ROB
2NR Must Spec ROB A Prioris Bad
2AR A Prioris Bad Must Spec ROB
Loyola
6
Opponent: Strake Jesuit JW | Judge: Tej Gedela
1AC Vaccine Imperialism
1NC Psychoanalysis K Solvency Advocate Theory Indigenous Patents PIC Log Con other tricks Case
1AR All A Prioris Bad Conditionality Bad
2NR Psychoanalysis K A Prioris Good Condo Good
2AR A Prioris Bad
Loyola
Quarters
Opponent: Diamond Bar NC | Judge: Lena Mizrahi, Danielle Dosch, James Stuckert
1AC Vaccine Imperialism
1NC WTO Collapse DA Donate CP Climate Patents DA Dual Use Tech PIC Orphan Drug PIC
1AR All Conditionality Bad
2NR Dual Use Tech PIC
2AR Condo
Loyola
Octas
Opponent: Ayala AM | Judge: Danielle Dosch, Valorie Lam, Ben Cortez
1AC Vaccine Imperialism
1NC Orphan Drug PIC Consult WHO CP Bioterror DA NATO G-7 CP
1AR All
2NR Orphan Drug PIC Case
2AR Case Orphan Drug PIC
Meadows
2
Opponent: Immaculate Heart AW | Judge: Rafael Sanchez
1AC - Vaccine Imperialism 1NC - Consult WHO Biotech DA Case 1AR - All 2NR - CP Case 2AR - Case CP
Meadows
4
Opponent: Ardsley LL | Judge: Kabir Dubey
1AC - Vaccine Imperialism 1NC - Licensing CP Innovation DA Biotech DA Case 2NR - All 2AR - All
Meadows
6
Opponent: Immaculate Heart JL | Judge: Jonathan Hsu
1AC - Vaccine Imperialism 1NC - T Vaccines Fisheries DA Donate CP Consult WHO Remdesivir PIC Case 2NR - Fisheries DA Case
Meadows
Doubles
Opponent: Southlake Carroll PK | Judge: Claudia Ribera, Jonathan Hsu, Ben Cortez
1AC - Vaccine Imperialism 1NC - China Heg Good CP Case 2NR - CP
Meadows
Octas
Opponent: Orange Lutheran AZ | Judge: Ben Cortez, Kabir Dubey, Aryan Jasani
1AC - Vaccine Imperialism 1NC - T Eliminate Solvency Advocate Theory Util NC Filibuster DA Emergencies CP Bioterror DA Nanomedicines PIC Neolib K 1AR Theory Hedge Case 1AR - All Condo Pics 2NR - Emergencies CP Case 2AR - Case CP
NDCA
2
Opponent: Immaculate Heart SP | Judge: Justin Hsu
1AC v8
1NC JCPOA DA Case
2NR JCPOA DA
NDCA
4
Opponent: Monta Vista KR | Judge: Ben Cortez
1AC v9
1NC Debris Cleanup CP CIL CP UN CP Security K Case
2NR UN CP Case
2AR Case CP
NDCA
6
Opponent: Strake Jesuit KS | Judge: John Sims
1AC V7 with Util stuff
1NC Kant NC Space Elevators PIC Xi DA Case
2NR Xi DA Case
2AR Case Xi DA
Newark
2
Opponent: Harrison JC | Judge: Vishnu Vennelakanti
lay debate 1AC Stock
1NC Stock
Newark
4
Opponent: Lexington AG | Judge: Anshuman Mishra
1AC Cosmic Colonialism
1NC T-Framework REM PIC Cap Good
2NR Cap Good
Newark
5
Opponent: Catonsville AT | Judge: Cyrus Jackson
1AC Cosmic Colonialism 1NC ISA CP Heg DA Innovation DA Case
2NR ISA CP Heg DA Case
Newark
Semis
Opponent: Village RB | Judge: Caroline Barry, Kristen Arnold, Chris Randall
1AC Cosmic Colonialism
1NC Settlerism K Case
2NR K Case
To modify or delete round reports, edit the associated round.
Cites
Entry
Date
0 -- Contact Information
Tournament: Penvitational | Round: Finals | Opponent: Aaron Zhang | Judge: Austin Li Rhys Moon (he/him) Peninsula '22
Resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust.
The Advantage is Cosmic Colonialism.
Private appropriation of outer space expands corporate colonialism.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 3-5~ TDI The 2010s may very well be remembered as the ‘Age of NewSpace', the
AND
space, or ‘astrosociologists' (Dickens and Ormrod, 2007a, 2007b).
The insistence on outer space as corporate capital’s spatial fix accelerates environmental degradation.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 6-8~ julian As Earth’s empty spaces are filled, as our planet comes to be shorn of
AND
capital itself that must outlive Earth—even into the darkness of space.
Environmental degradation causes extinction.
Dr. Peter Kareiva 18, Ph.D. in Ecology and Applied Mathematics from Cornell University, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, Pritzker Distinguished Professor in Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, et al., September 2018, "Existential Risk Due To Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back", Futures, Volume 102, p. 39-50 In summary, six of the nine proposed planetary boundaries (phosphorous, nitrogen,
AND
complete scientific understanding when it comes to positive feedback loops and climate change.
Our internal link is reverse causal. The "spatial fix" ensures infinite environmental destruction.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 5-6~ julian No longer terra nullius, space is now the new terra firma of capitalistkind:
AND
as a domain made accessible in legal, technical, and economic ways.
Corporate colonialism concentrates society around collective effervescence, which effaces safeguards to capital’s negative externalities.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM The geographer David Harvey draws on Karl Marx’s idea of surplus capital to suggest that
AND
terrestrial life and feed the desire for excitement and the duty of excitability.
Corporate colonialism necessitates mass launch.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM When speaking of viability, one aspect that gets underplayed are the significant ecological effects
AND
rockets into space—precisely in order to preserve life here on Earth.
That depletes the ozone layer, open the floodgates for existential UV floods, and leaves residual black carbon.
Grush 17 ~Loren Grush, Loren Grush is a science reporter for The Verge, the technology and culture brand from Vox Media, where she specializes in all things space—from distant stars and planets to human space flight and the commercial space race. The daughter of two NASA engineers, she grew up surrounded by space shuttles and rocket scientists—literally. She is also the host of Space Craft, an original online video series that examines what it takes to send people to space. Before joining The Verge, Loren published stories in Popular Science, The New York Times, Nautilus Magazine, Digital Trends, Fox News, and ABC News.) "Why it’s time to study how rocket emissions change the atmosphere: Get the data now before the problem gets worse" The Verge, May 31, 2018~ RM Every time a rocket launches, it produces a plume of exhaust in its wake
AND
. "WE WANT TO BE PROACTIVE BEFORE THIS TIPPING POINT OCCURS."
occur again, dangerously exposing surface and shallow sea life to harmful radiation.
UV floods cause extinction—no defense assumes rampant UV poisoning.
Lucas et al 14 (R. M. Lucas (National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth 6008, Australia), M. Norval (Biomedical Sciences, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK), R. E. Neale (QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane 4029, Australia), A. R. Young (King's College London (KCL), St John's Institute of Dermatology, London SE1 9RT, UK), F. R. de Gruijl (Department of Dermatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, P.O. Box 9600, NL-2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands), Y. (Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita-shi, Akita Prefecture, Japan, National Institute for Minamata Diseases, Minamata-sh, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan) and J. C. van der Leun (iEcofys, Kanaalweg 16G, NL-3526 KL Utrecht, The Netherlands), "The consequences for human health of stratospheric ozone depletion in association with other environmental factors", November 10th, 2014, https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2015/pp/c4pp90033b) CS Effects of solar UV radiation on immune function and consequences for disease Mechanisms UV photons
AND
in preventing the development of skin cancers and actinic keratoses.212–214
That causes viruses to human bacterial genome to damage will ensure the next pandemic is existential
Supriya 4/19 ~Lakshmi Supriya got her BSc in Industrial Chemistry from IIT Kharagpur (India) and a Ph.D. in Polymer Science and Engineering from Virginia Tech (USA). She has more than a decade of global industry experience working in the USA, Europe, and India. After her Ph.D., she worked as part of the RandD group in diverse industries starting with semiconductor packaging at Intel, Arizona, where she developed a new elastomeric thermal solution, which has now been commercialized and is used in the core i3 and i5 processors. From there she went on to work at two startups, one managing the microfluidics chip manufacturing lab at a biotechnology company and the other developing polymer formulations for oil extraction from oil sands. She also worked at Saint Gobain North America, developing various material solutions for photovoltaics and processing techniques and new applications for fluoropolymers. Most recently, she managed the Indian RandD team of Enthone (now part of MacDermid) developing electroplating technologies for precious metals.) "Humans versus viruses - Can we avoid extinction in near future?" News Medical Life Sciences, 4/19/21, https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/Humans-versus-viruses-Can-we-avoid-extinction-in-near-future.aspx~~ RM Expert argues that human-caused changes to the environment can lead to the emergence
AND
the consequences may be and the next pandemic could lead us to extinction.
====Black carbon locks in widespread and dangerous pollution, which kills millions.==== CHO 16 ~Renee Cho, Communications Coordinator for Riverkeeper, the Hudson River environmental organization, Columbia Climate School - State of the Planet, "The Damaging Effects of Black Carbon", MARCH 22, 2016, https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2016/03/22/the-damaging-effects-of-black-carbon/~~ BD Air pollution, both outdoors and indoors, causes millions of premature deaths each year
AND
reflecting power of a surface), warming the snow, and hastening melting.
Corporate colonialism also locks the Global South out of space, which internal link turns any negative offense because it magnifies interstellar inequality.
Stockwell 20 ~Sam Stockwell is a research assistant at RAND Europe working in the area of defence, security and infrastructure. His research interests include terrorism and counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, emerging technologies in conflict environments, and space security. Prior to RAND, Stockwell was a research assistant at The Henry Jackson Society, a security think tank, where he studied the impact of coronavirus on online extremist content. He has also worked with lecturers at the University of East Anglia on Brexit-related projects. Stockwell achieved a Distinction at King's College London in conflict, security and development studies, specialising in far-right terrorism and cyber security. He holds a First Class B.A. (Hons) degree in politics from the University of East Anglia, where he also received The Thomas Paine Prize in Politics for achieving consistently high marks on assignments throughout his course.) "Legal ‘Black Holes’ in Outer Space: The Regulation of Private Space Companies" E-International Relations, July 20, 2020~ RM Corporate Space Debris, Security Tensions and Environmental Contamination Space debris can be defined
AND
‘global commons’ is slowly turning into one of a ‘global commodity’.
1AC – Framing
Existential threats independently outweigh – all life has infinite value and extinction eliminates the possibility for future generations
GPP 17 (Global Priorities Project, Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, "Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance," Global Priorities Project, 2017, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf, 1.2. THE ETHICS OF EXISTENTIAL RISK In his book Reasons and Persons
AND
other cognitive biases are likely to affect the evaluation of existential risks.75
Pleasure and pain are intrinsically valuable.
Moen 16 ~Ole Martin Moen, Research Fellow in Philosophy at University of Oslo "An Argument for Hedonism" Journal of Value Inquiry (Springer), 50 (2) 2016: 267–281~ SJDI Let us start by observing, empirically, that a widely shared judgment about intrinsic
AND
places where we reach the end of the line in matters of value.
Thus, the standard is maximizing expected well-being – prefer:
1~ Actor specificity – Governments must aggregate since every policy benefits some and harms others, which also means side constraints freeze action. Actor-specificity comes first since different agents have different ethical standings.
2~ No act-omission distinction—governments are responsible for everything in the public sphere so inaction is implicit authorization of action: they have to yes/no bills, which means everything collapse to aggregation.
Resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust.
The Advantage is Cosmic Colonialism.
Private appropriation of outer space expands corporate colonialism.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 3-5~ TDI The 2010s may very well be remembered as the ‘Age of NewSpace', the
AND
space, or ‘astrosociologists' (Dickens and Ormrod, 2007a, 2007b).
The insistence on outer space as corporate capital’s spatial fix accelerates environmental degradation.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 6-8~ julian As Earth’s empty spaces are filled, as our planet comes to be shorn of
AND
capital itself that must outlive Earth—even into the darkness of space.
Environmental degradation causes extinction.
Dr. Peter Kareiva 18, Ph.D. in Ecology and Applied Mathematics from Cornell University, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, Pritzker Distinguished Professor in Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, et al., September 2018, "Existential Risk Due To Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back", Futures, Volume 102, p. 39-50 In summary, six of the nine proposed planetary boundaries (phosphorous, nitrogen,
AND
complete scientific understanding when it comes to positive feedback loops and climate change.
Our internal link is reverse causal. The "spatial fix" ensures infinite environmental destruction.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 5-6~ julian No longer terra nullius, space is now the new terra firma of capitalistkind:
AND
as a domain made accessible in legal, technical, and economic ways.
Corporate colonialism concentrates society around collective effervescence, which effaces safeguards to capital’s negative externalities.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM The geographer David Harvey draws on Karl Marx’s idea of surplus capital to suggest that
AND
terrestrial life and feed the desire for excitement and the duty of excitability.
Corporate colonialism necessitates mass launch.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM When speaking of viability, one aspect that gets underplayed are the significant ecological effects
AND
rockets into space—precisely in order to preserve life here on Earth.
That depletes the ozone layer, open the floodgates for existential UV floods, and leaves residual black carbon.
Grush 17 ~Loren Grush, Loren Grush is a science reporter for The Verge, the technology and culture brand from Vox Media, where she specializes in all things space—from distant stars and planets to human space flight and the commercial space race. The daughter of two NASA engineers, she grew up surrounded by space shuttles and rocket scientists—literally. She is also the host of Space Craft, an original online video series that examines what it takes to send people to space. Before joining The Verge, Loren published stories in Popular Science, The New York Times, Nautilus Magazine, Digital Trends, Fox News, and ABC News.) "Why it’s time to study how rocket emissions change the atmosphere: Get the data now before the problem gets worse" The Verge, May 31, 2018~ RM Every time a rocket launches, it produces a plume of exhaust in its wake
AND
. "WE WANT TO BE PROACTIVE BEFORE THIS TIPPING POINT OCCURS."
occur again, dangerously exposing surface and shallow sea life to harmful radiation.
UV floods cause extinction—no defense assumes rampant UV poisoning.
Lucas et al 14 (R. M. Lucas (National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth 6008, Australia), M. Norval (Biomedical Sciences, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK), R. E. Neale (QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane 4029, Australia), A. R. Young (King's College London (KCL), St John's Institute of Dermatology, London SE1 9RT, UK), F. R. de Gruijl (Department of Dermatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, P.O. Box 9600, NL-2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands), Y. (Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita-shi, Akita Prefecture, Japan, National Institute for Minamata Diseases, Minamata-sh, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan) and J. C. van der Leun (iEcofys, Kanaalweg 16G, NL-3526 KL Utrecht, The Netherlands), "The consequences for human health of stratospheric ozone depletion in association with other environmental factors", November 10th, 2014, https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2015/pp/c4pp90033b) CS Effects of solar UV radiation on immune function and consequences for disease Mechanisms UV photons
AND
in preventing the development of skin cancers and actinic keratoses.212–214
That causes viruses to human bacterial genome to damage will ensure the next pandemic is existential
Supriya 4/19 ~Lakshmi Supriya got her BSc in Industrial Chemistry from IIT Kharagpur (India) and a Ph.D. in Polymer Science and Engineering from Virginia Tech (USA). She has more than a decade of global industry experience working in the USA, Europe, and India. After her Ph.D., she worked as part of the RandD group in diverse industries starting with semiconductor packaging at Intel, Arizona, where she developed a new elastomeric thermal solution, which has now been commercialized and is used in the core i3 and i5 processors. From there she went on to work at two startups, one managing the microfluidics chip manufacturing lab at a biotechnology company and the other developing polymer formulations for oil extraction from oil sands. She also worked at Saint Gobain North America, developing various material solutions for photovoltaics and processing techniques and new applications for fluoropolymers. Most recently, she managed the Indian RandD team of Enthone (now part of MacDermid) developing electroplating technologies for precious metals.) "Humans versus viruses - Can we avoid extinction in near future?" News Medical Life Sciences, 4/19/21, https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/Humans-versus-viruses-Can-we-avoid-extinction-in-near-future.aspx~~ RM Expert argues that human-caused changes to the environment can lead to the emergence
AND
the consequences may be and the next pandemic could lead us to extinction.
====Black carbon locks in widespread and dangerous pollution, which kills millions.==== CHO 16 ~Renee Cho, Communications Coordinator for Riverkeeper, the Hudson River environmental organization, Columbia Climate School - State of the Planet, "The Damaging Effects of Black Carbon", MARCH 22, 2016, https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2016/03/22/the-damaging-effects-of-black-carbon/~~ BD Air pollution, both outdoors and indoors, causes millions of premature deaths each year
AND
reflecting power of a surface), warming the snow, and hastening melting.
Corporate colonialism also locks the Global South out of space, which internal link turns any negative offense because it magnifies interstellar inequality.
Stockwell 20 ~Sam Stockwell is a research assistant at RAND Europe working in the area of defence, security and infrastructure. His research interests include terrorism and counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, emerging technologies in conflict environments, and space security. Prior to RAND, Stockwell was a research assistant at The Henry Jackson Society, a security think tank, where he studied the impact of coronavirus on online extremist content. He has also worked with lecturers at the University of East Anglia on Brexit-related projects. Stockwell achieved a Distinction at King's College London in conflict, security and development studies, specialising in far-right terrorism and cyber security. He holds a First Class B.A. (Hons) degree in politics from the University of East Anglia, where he also received The Thomas Paine Prize in Politics for achieving consistently high marks on assignments throughout his course.) "Legal ‘Black Holes’ in Outer Space: The Regulation of Private Space Companies" E-International Relations, July 20, 2020~ RM Corporate Space Debris, Security Tensions and Environmental Contamination Space debris can be defined
AND
‘global commons’ is slowly turning into one of a ‘global commodity’.
NewSpace actors engage in historical revisionism that moralistically justifies endless accumulation by displacing neoliberal guilt.
Johnson ‘20 (Johnson, Matthew Robert. "Mining the high frontier: sovereignty, property and humankind’s common heritage in outer space." PhD diss., University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 2020-08-26; JPark) The trope of the frontier speaks to both violent appropriation and – as it appears
AND
outer space for peaceful purposes" (Outer Space Treaty 1967, preamble).
NewSpace valorizes private property, advances American exceptionalism, and uses the frontier to greenlight exploitation, colonialism, and violence.
Johnson ‘20 (Johnson, Matthew Robert. "Mining the high frontier: sovereignty, property and humankind’s common heritage in outer space." PhD diss., University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 2020-08-26; JPark) ~Bolded Brackets~ inserted for footnote clarity 5. Privateering the cosmic frontier: empire, myth and the violence of property93
AND
" of history (2001 ~n.d.~, p.35).
1AC – Framing
The standard is maximizing expected well-being.
Existential threats independently outweigh – all life has infinite value and extinction eliminates the possibility for future generations
GPP 17 (Global Priorities Project, Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, "Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance," Global Priorities Project, 2017, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf, 1.2. THE ETHICS OF EXISTENTIAL RISK In his book Reasons and Persons
AND
other cognitive biases are likely to affect the evaluation of existential risks.75
Pleasure and pain are intrinsically valuable.
Moen 16 ~Ole Martin Moen, Research Fellow in Philosophy at University of Oslo "An Argument for Hedonism" Journal of Value Inquiry (Springer), 50 (2) 2016: 267–281~ SJDI Let us start by observing, empirically, that a widely shared judgment about intrinsic
AND
places where we reach the end of the line in matters of value.
Thus, the standard is maximizing expected well-being – prefer:
1~ Actor specificity – Governments must aggregate since every policy benefits some and harms others, which also means side constraints freeze action. Actor-specificity comes first since different agents have different ethical standings.
2~ No act-omission distinction—governments are responsible for everything in the public sphere so inaction is implicit authorization of action: they have to yes/no bills, which means everything collapse to aggregation.
1/15/22
JANFEB - 1AC - Cosmic Colonialism v3
Tournament: Harvard Westlake | Round: 6 | Opponent: Harker AR | Judge: Margaret Strong
1AC
1AC – Cosmic Colonialism
Resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust.
The Advantage is Cosmic Colonialism.
Private appropriation of outer space expands corporate colonialism.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 3-5~ TDI The 2010s may very well be remembered as the ‘Age of NewSpace', the
AND
space, or ‘astrosociologists' (Dickens and Ormrod, 2007a, 2007b).
The insistence on outer space as corporate capital’s spatial fix accelerates environmental degradation.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 6-8~ julian As Earth’s empty spaces are filled, as our planet comes to be shorn of
AND
capital itself that must outlive Earth—even into the darkness of space.
Environmental degradation causes extinction.
Dr. Peter Kareiva 18, Ph.D. in Ecology and Applied Mathematics from Cornell University, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, Pritzker Distinguished Professor in Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, et al., September 2018, "Existential Risk Due To Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back", Futures, Volume 102, p. 39-50 In summary, six of the nine proposed planetary boundaries (phosphorous, nitrogen,
AND
complete scientific understanding when it comes to positive feedback loops and climate change.
Our internal link is reverse causal. The "spatial fix" ensures infinite environmental destruction.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 5-6~ julian No longer terra nullius, space is now the new terra firma of capitalistkind:
AND
as a domain made accessible in legal, technical, and economic ways.
Corporate colonialism concentrates society around collective effervescence, which effaces safeguards to capital’s negative externalities.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM The geographer David Harvey draws on Karl Marx’s idea of surplus capital to suggest that
AND
terrestrial life and feed the desire for excitement and the duty of excitability.
Corporate colonialism necessitates mass launch.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM When speaking of viability, one aspect that gets underplayed are the significant ecological effects
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rockets into space—precisely in order to preserve life here on Earth.
That depletes the ozone layer, open the floodgates for existential UV floods, and leaves residual black carbon.
Grush 17 ~Loren Grush, Loren Grush is a science reporter for The Verge, the technology and culture brand from Vox Media, where she specializes in all things space—from distant stars and planets to human space flight and the commercial space race. The daughter of two NASA engineers, she grew up surrounded by space shuttles and rocket scientists—literally. She is also the host of Space Craft, an original online video series that examines what it takes to send people to space. Before joining The Verge, Loren published stories in Popular Science, The New York Times, Nautilus Magazine, Digital Trends, Fox News, and ABC News.) "Why it’s time to study how rocket emissions change the atmosphere: Get the data now before the problem gets worse" The Verge, May 31, 2018~ RM Every time a rocket launches, it produces a plume of exhaust in its wake
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. "WE WANT TO BE PROACTIVE BEFORE THIS TIPPING POINT OCCURS."
occur again, dangerously exposing surface and shallow sea life to harmful radiation.
UV floods cause extinction—no defense assumes rampant UV poisoning.
Lucas et al 14 (R. M. Lucas (National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth 6008, Australia), M. Norval (Biomedical Sciences, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK), R. E. Neale (QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane 4029, Australia), A. R. Young (King's College London (KCL), St John's Institute of Dermatology, London SE1 9RT, UK), F. R. de Gruijl (Department of Dermatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, P.O. Box 9600, NL-2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands), Y. (Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita-shi, Akita Prefecture, Japan, National Institute for Minamata Diseases, Minamata-sh, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan) and J. C. van der Leun (iEcofys, Kanaalweg 16G, NL-3526 KL Utrecht, The Netherlands), "The consequences for human health of stratospheric ozone depletion in association with other environmental factors", November 10th, 2014, https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2015/pp/c4pp90033b) CS Effects of solar UV radiation on immune function and consequences for disease Mechanisms UV photons
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in preventing the development of skin cancers and actinic keratoses.212–214
That causes viruses to human bacterial genome to damage will ensure the next pandemic is existential
Supriya 4/19 ~Lakshmi Supriya got her BSc in Industrial Chemistry from IIT Kharagpur (India) and a Ph.D. in Polymer Science and Engineering from Virginia Tech (USA). She has more than a decade of global industry experience working in the USA, Europe, and India. After her Ph.D., she worked as part of the RandD group in diverse industries starting with semiconductor packaging at Intel, Arizona, where she developed a new elastomeric thermal solution, which has now been commercialized and is used in the core i3 and i5 processors. From there she went on to work at two startups, one managing the microfluidics chip manufacturing lab at a biotechnology company and the other developing polymer formulations for oil extraction from oil sands. She also worked at Saint Gobain North America, developing various material solutions for photovoltaics and processing techniques and new applications for fluoropolymers. Most recently, she managed the Indian RandD team of Enthone (now part of MacDermid) developing electroplating technologies for precious metals.) "Humans versus viruses - Can we avoid extinction in near future?" News Medical Life Sciences, 4/19/21, https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/Humans-versus-viruses-Can-we-avoid-extinction-in-near-future.aspx~~ RM Expert argues that human-caused changes to the environment can lead to the emergence
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the consequences may be and the next pandemic could lead us to extinction.
====Black carbon locks in widespread and dangerous pollution, which kills millions.==== CHO 16 ~Renee Cho, Communications Coordinator for Riverkeeper, the Hudson River environmental organization, Columbia Climate School - State of the Planet, "The Damaging Effects of Black Carbon", MARCH 22, 2016, https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2016/03/22/the-damaging-effects-of-black-carbon/~~ BD Air pollution, both outdoors and indoors, causes millions of premature deaths each year
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reflecting power of a surface), warming the snow, and hastening melting.
Corporate colonialism also locks the Global South out of space, which internal link turns any negative offense because it magnifies interstellar inequality.
Stockwell 20 ~Sam Stockwell is a research assistant at RAND Europe working in the area of defence, security and infrastructure. His research interests include terrorism and counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, emerging technologies in conflict environments, and space security. Prior to RAND, Stockwell was a research assistant at The Henry Jackson Society, a security think tank, where he studied the impact of coronavirus on online extremist content. He has also worked with lecturers at the University of East Anglia on Brexit-related projects. Stockwell achieved a Distinction at King's College London in conflict, security and development studies, specialising in far-right terrorism and cyber security. He holds a First Class B.A. (Hons) degree in politics from the University of East Anglia, where he also received The Thomas Paine Prize in Politics for achieving consistently high marks on assignments throughout his course.) "Legal ‘Black Holes’ in Outer Space: The Regulation of Private Space Companies" E-International Relations, July 20, 2020~ RM Corporate Space Debris, Security Tensions and Environmental Contamination Space debris can be defined
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‘global commons’ is slowly turning into one of a ‘global commodity’.
It’s terrestrially unsustainable—-underlying market principles, failed economic policy, and income inequality.
Jackson 19 (Jackson, Tim—- ecological economist and professor of sustainable development at the University of Surrey. (2019). The Post-growth Challenge: Secular Stagnation, Inequality and the Limits to Growth. Ecological Economics, 156, 236–246. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.10.010, sci-hub.tw/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.10.010) MWE A decade after the financial crisis, growth rates in advanced economies have still not
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), that task is precise, de fi nable, pragmatic and achievable.
NewSpace actors engage in historical revisionism that moralistically justifies endless accumulation by displacing neoliberal guilt.
Johnson ‘20 (Johnson, Matthew Robert. "Mining the high frontier: sovereignty, property and humankind’s common heritage in outer space." PhD diss., University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 2020-08-26; JPark) The trope of the frontier speaks to both violent appropriation and – as it appears
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outer space for peaceful purposes" (Outer Space Treaty 1967, preamble).
NewSpace valorizes private property, advances American exceptionalism, and uses the frontier to greenlight exploitation, colonialism, and violence.
Johnson ‘20 (Johnson, Matthew Robert. "Mining the high frontier: sovereignty, property and humankind’s common heritage in outer space." PhD diss., University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 2020-08-26; JPark) ~Bolded Brackets~ inserted for footnote clarity 5. Privateering the cosmic frontier: empire, myth and the violence of property93
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" of history (2001 ~n.d.~, p.35).
1AC – Framing
The standard is maximizing expected well-being.
Existential threats independently outweigh – all life has infinite value and extinction eliminates the possibility for future generations
GPP 17 (Global Priorities Project, Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, "Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance," Global Priorities Project, 2017, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf, 1.2. THE ETHICS OF EXISTENTIAL RISK In his book Reasons and Persons
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other cognitive biases are likely to affect the evaluation of existential risks.75
Pleasure and pain are intrinsically valuable.
Moen 16 ~Ole Martin Moen, Research Fellow in Philosophy at University of Oslo "An Argument for Hedonism" Journal of Value Inquiry (Springer), 50 (2) 2016: 267–281~ SJDI Let us start by observing, empirically, that a widely shared judgment about intrinsic
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places where we reach the end of the line in matters of value.
Thus, the standard is maximizing expected well-being – prefer:
1~ Actor specificity – Governments must aggregate since every policy benefits some and harms others, which also means side constraints freeze action. Actor-specificity comes first since different agents have different ethical standings.
2~ No act-omission distinction—governments are responsible for everything in the public sphere so inaction is implicit authorization of action: they have to yes/no bills, which means everything collapse to aggregation.
Bostrom 12 ~(Nick Bostrom, Faculty of Philosophy and Oxford Martin School University of Oxford) "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority." Global Policy, 2012~ TDI These reflections on moral uncertainty suggest an alternative, complementary way of looking at existential
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of value. To do this, we must prevent any existential catastrophe.
Pleasure and pain are intrinsically valuable.
Moen 16 ~Ole Martin Moen, Research Fellow in Philosophy at University of Oslo "An Argument for Hedonism" Journal of Value Inquiry (Springer), 50 (2) 2016: 267–281~ TDI Let us start by observing, empirically, that a widely shared judgment about intrinsic
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places where we reach the end of the line in matters of value.
Thus, the standard is maximizing expected well-being – prefer:
1~ Actor specificity – Governments must aggregate since every policy benefits some and harms others, which also means side constraints freeze action.
2~ No act-omission distinction—governments are responsible for everything in the public sphere so inaction is implicit authorization of action: they have to yes/no bills, which means everything collapse to aggregation.
1AC – Cosmic Colonialism
Advantage 1 is Cosmic Colonialism.
Private appropriation of outer space expands corporate colonialism.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 3-5~ TDI The 2010s may very well be remembered as the ‘Age of NewSpace', the
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space, or ‘astrosociologists' (Dickens and Ormrod, 2007a, 2007b).
NewSpace actors engage in historical revisionism that moralistically justifies endless accumulation by displacing neoliberal guilt.
Johnson ‘20 (Johnson, Matthew Robert. "Mining the high frontier: sovereignty, property and humankind’s common heritage in outer space." PhD diss., University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 2020-08-26; JPark) This card basically says that, independent from the actual material expansion of capitalism/
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outer space for peaceful purposes" (Outer Space Treaty 1967, preamble).
The insistence on outer space as corporate capital’s spatial fix accelerates environmental degradation.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 6-8~ julian As Earth’s empty spaces are filled, as our planet comes to be shorn of
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capital itself that must outlive Earth—even into the darkness of space.
Environmental degradation causes extinction.
Dr. Peter Kareiva 18, Ph.D. in Ecology and Applied Mathematics from Cornell University, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, Pritzker Distinguished Professor in Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, et al., September 2018, "Existential Risk Due To Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back", Futures, Volume 102, p. 39-50 In summary, six of the nine proposed planetary boundaries (phosphorous, nitrogen,
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complete scientific understanding when it comes to positive feedback loops and climate change.
Corporate colonialism necessitates mass launch.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM When speaking of viability, one aspect that gets underplayed are the significant ecological effects
AND
rockets into space—precisely in order to preserve life here on Earth.
That depletes the ozone layer, open the floodgates for existential UV floods, and leaves residual black carbon.
Grush 17 ~Loren Grush, Loren Grush is a science reporter for The Verge, the technology and culture brand from Vox Media, where she specializes in all things space—from distant stars and planets to human space flight and the commercial space race. The daughter of two NASA engineers, she grew up surrounded by space shuttles and rocket scientists—literally. She is also the host of Space Craft, an original online video series that examines what it takes to send people to space. Before joining The Verge, Loren published stories in Popular Science, The New York Times, Nautilus Magazine, Digital Trends, Fox News, and ABC News.) "Why it’s time to study how rocket emissions change the atmosphere: Get the data now before the problem gets worse" The Verge, May 31, 2018~ RM Every time a rocket launches, it produces a plume of exhaust in its wake
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. "WE WANT TO BE PROACTIVE BEFORE THIS TIPPING POINT OCCURS."
occur again, dangerously exposing surface and shallow sea life to harmful radiation.
UV floods supress immune responses and lead to radiation
Lucas et al 14 (R. M. Lucas (National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth 6008, Australia), M. Norval (Biomedical Sciences, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK), R. E. Neale (QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane 4029, Australia), A. R. Young (King's College London (KCL), St John's Institute of Dermatology, London SE1 9RT, UK), F. R. de Gruijl (Department of Dermatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, P.O. Box 9600, NL-2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands), Y. (Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita-shi, Akita Prefecture, Japan, National Institute for Minamata Diseases, Minamata-sh, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan) and J. C. van der Leun (iEcofys, Kanaalweg 16G, NL-3526 KL Utrecht, The Netherlands), "The consequences for human health of stratospheric ozone depletion in association with other environmental factors", November 10th, 2014, https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2015/pp/c4pp90033b) CS Effects of solar UV radiation on immune function and consequences for disease Mechanisms UV photons
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in preventing the development of skin cancers and actinic keratoses.212–214
Viruses to human bacterial genome to damage will ensure the next pandemic is existential
Supriya 4/19 ~Lakshmi Supriya got her BSc in Industrial Chemistry from IIT Kharagpur (India) and a Ph.D. in Polymer Science and Engineering from Virginia Tech (USA). She has more than a decade of global industry experience working in the USA, Europe, and India. After her Ph.D., she worked as part of the RandD group in diverse industries starting with semiconductor packaging at Intel, Arizona, where she developed a new elastomeric thermal solution, which has now been commercialized and is used in the core i3 and i5 processors. From there she went on to work at two startups, one managing the microfluidics chip manufacturing lab at a biotechnology company and the other developing polymer formulations for oil extraction from oil sands. She also worked at Saint Gobain North America, developing various material solutions for photovoltaics and processing techniques and new applications for fluoropolymers. Most recently, she managed the Indian RandD team of Enthone (now part of MacDermid) developing electroplating technologies for precious metals.) "Humans versus viruses - Can we avoid extinction in near future?" News Medical Life Sciences, 4/19/21, https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/Humans-versus-viruses-Can-we-avoid-extinction-in-near-future.aspx~~ RM Expert argues that human-caused changes to the environment can lead to the emergence
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the consequences may be and the next pandemic could lead us to extinction.
1AC – Space War
Advantage 2 is Space War
Deep space exploration is a shared goal that prevents escalation of US-Russia tensions. But privatization threatens it independent of our other internal links
a phase out date of Russian RD-180 rocket engines by 2022.
It’s make or break for the relationship—Ukraine, decline of US moral authority on international affairs puts us at the brink of the end of Russian diplomacy and even war
Weir 21 ~(Fred Weir has been the Monitor's Moscow correspondent, covering Russia and the former Soviet Union, since 1998. He's traveled over much of that vast territory, reporting on stories ranging from Russia's financial crash to the war in Chechnya, creeping Islamization in central Asia, Russia's demographic crisis, the rise of Vladimir Putin and his repeated returns to the Kremlin, and the ups and downs of US-Russia relations). "Worse than the Cold War? US-Russia relations hit new low." Christian Science Monitor 4-20-2021 https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2021/0420/Worse-than-the-Cold-War-US-Russia-relations-hit-new-low~~ TDI Russia’s relations with the West, and the United States in particular, appear to
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.S. activities and policies that are harmful to our two countries."
Space weapons heighten potential for escalation and make perceptions of US-Russia space conflict key.
Alexey Arbatov et al, head of the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Major General Vladimir Dvorkin, a principal researcher at the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations and Peter Topychkanov, fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, ‘17 "Russian And Chinese Perspectives On Non-Nuclear Weapons And Nuclear Risks" Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publications, https://www.russiamatters.org/sites/default/files/media/files/Entanglement'interior'FNL.pdf Against this background, Russian military and technical experts are currently engaged in efforts to
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discusses how new and emerging military technologies might contribute to such an escalation.
It’s existential.
Owen Cotton-Barratt 17. PhD in Pure Mathematics, Oxford, Lecturer in Mathematics at Oxford, Research Associate at the Future of Humanity Institute. 2-3-2017. "Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance." https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki demonstrated the unprecedented destructive power of nuclear weapons.
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unreasonable to rule out the possibility of them rising further in the future.
1AC – Debris
Advantage 3 is Debris
Asteroid mining spikes the risk of satellite-dust collisions
Commercial rocket launches produce space clutter—increased debris could reach a tipping point. AND private companies are impossible to control – only space decolonization solves
Thompson 20 ~(Clive, author of Coders: The Making of a New Tribe and the Remaking of the World, a columnist for Wired magazine, and a contributing writer to The New York Times Magazine) "Monetizing the Final Frontier The strange new push for space privatization," December 3, 2020 https://newrepublic.com/article/160303/monetizing-final-frontier~~ TDI "Physics tells us that two things can’t occupy the same space at the same
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as how a Mars colony might exist without becoming a human rights nightmare.
Private space companies vastly outpace the public sector and avoid regulation which makes it a uniquely dangerous industry
Seminar focuses on possible legal frameworks for governing commercial activity in outer space.
Space dust wrecks satellites and debris exponentially spirals
Intagliata 17 ~~~(Christopher Intagliata, MA Journalism from NYU, Editor for NPRs All Things Considered, Reporter/Host for Scientific American’s 60 Second Science) "The Sneaky Danger of Space Dust," Scientific American, May 11, 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-sneaky-danger-of-space-dust/~~~~~~ TDI When tiny particles of space debris slam into satellites, the collision could cause the emission of hardware-frying radiation, Christopher Intagliata reports. Aside from all the satellites, and the space station orbiting the Earth, there's a lot of trash circling the planet, too. Twenty-one thousand baseball-sized chunks of debris, according to NASA. But that number's dwarfed by the number of small particles. There's hundreds of millions of those. "And those smaller particles tend to be going fast. Think of picking up a grain of sand at the beach, and that would be on the large side. But they're going 60 kilometers per second." Sigrid Close, an applied physicist and astronautical engineer at Stanford University. Close says that whereas mechanical damage—like punctures—is the worry with the bigger chunks, the dust-sized stuff might leave more insidious, invisible marks on satellites—by causing electrical damage. "We also think this phenomenon can be attributed to some of the failures and anomalies we see on orbit, that right now are basically tagged as 'unknown cause.'" Close and her colleague Alex Fletcher modeled this phenomenon mathematically, based on plasma physics behavior. And here's what they think happens. First, the dust slams into the spacecraft. Incredibly fast. It vaporizes and ionizes a bit of the ship—and itself. Which generates a cloud of ions and electrons, traveling at different speeds. And then: "It's like a spring action, the electrons are pulled back to the ions, ions are being pushed ahead a little bit. And then the electrons overshoot the ions, so they oscillate, and then they go back out again." That movement of electrons creates a pulse of electromagnetic radiation, which Close says could be the culprit for some of that electrical damage to satellites. The study is in the journal Physics of Plasmas. ~~~Alex C. Fletcher and Sigrid Close, Particle-in-cell simulations of an RF emission mechanism associated with hypervelocity impact plasmas~~~
Early warning satellites going dark signals attacks – causes miscalc and goes nuclear
Orwig 16 ~~~(Jessica, MS in science and tech journalism from Texas AandM, BS in astronomy and physics from Ohio State) "Russia says a growing problem in space could be enough to spark a war," Insider,’ January 26, 2016, https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-says-space-junk-could-spark-war-2016-1~~~~~~ TDI NASA has already warned that the large amount of space junk around our planet is growing beyond our control, but now a team of Russian scientists has cited another potentially unforeseen consequence of that debris: War. Scientists estimate that anywhere from 500,000 to 600,000 pieces of human-made space debris between 0.4 and 4 inches in size are currently orbiting the Earth and traveling at speeds over 17,000 miles per hour. If one of those pieces smashed into a military satellite it "may provoke political or even armed conflict between space-faring nations," Vitaly Adushkin, a researcher for the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, reported in a paper set to be published in the peer-reviewed journal Acta Astronautica, which is sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics. Say, for example, that a satellite was destroyed or significantly damaged in orbit — something that a 4-inch hunk of space junk could easily do traveling at speeds of 17,500 miles per hour, Adushkin reported. (Even smaller pieces no bigger than size of a pea could cause enough damage to the satellite that it would no longer operate correctly, he notes.) It would be difficult for anyone to determine whether the event was accidental or deliberate. This lack of immediate proof could lead to false accusations, heated arguments and, eventually, war, according to Adushkin and his colleagues. A politically dangerous dilemma In the report, the Adushkin said that there have already been repeated "sudden failures" of military spacecraft in the last two decades that cannot be explained. "So, there are two possible explanations," he wrote. The first is "unregistered collisions with space objects." The second is "machinations" ~~~deliberate action~~~ of the space adversary. "This is a politically dangerous dilemma," he added. But these mysterious failures in the past aren't what concerns Adushkin most. It's a future threat of what experts call the cascade effect that has Adushkin and other scientists around the world extremely concerned. The Kessler Syndrome In 1978, American astrophysicist Donald Kessler predicted that the amount of space debris around Earth would begin to grow exponentially after the turn of the millennium. Kessler 's predictions rely on the fact that over time, space junk accumulates. We leave most of our defunct satellites in space, and when meteors and other man-made space debris slam into them, you get a cascade of debris. The cascade effect — also known as the Kessler Syndrome — refers to a critical point wherein the density of space junk grows so large that a single collision could set off a domino effect of increasingly more collisions. For Kessler, this is a problem because it would "create small debris faster than it can be removed," Kessler said last year. And this cloud of junk could eventually make missions to space too dangerous. For Adushkin, this would exacerbate the issue of identifying what, or who, could be behind broken satellites. The future So far, the US and Russian Space Surveillance Systems have catalogued 170,000 pieces of large space debris (between 4 and 8 inches wide) and are currently tracking them to prevent anymore dilemmas like the ones Adushkin and his colleagues cite in their paper. But it's not just the large objects that concern Adushkin, who reported that even small objects (less than 1/3 of an inch) could damage satellites to the point they can't function properly. Using mathematical models, Adushkin and his colleagues calculated what the situtation will be like in 200 years if we continue to leave satellites in space and make no effort to clean up the mess. They estimate we'll have: 1.5 times more fragments greater than 8 inches across 3.2 times more fragments between 4 and 8 inches across 13-20 times more smaller-sized fragments less than 4 inches across "The number of small-size, non-catalogued objects will grow exponentially in mutual collisions," the researchers reported.
Anti-Satellite Weapons and Space Debris Collisions Lead to Arms Race and War
Blatt 20 Talia M. Blatt ~I am a rising sophomore at Harvard, considering a joint concentration in Social Studies and Integrative Biology with a citation in Chinese. I specialize in East Asian geopolitics and security issues~., 26.MAY.2020, "Anti-Satellite Weapons and the Emerging Space Arms Race," Harvard International Review, https://hir.harvard.edu/anti-satellite-weapons-and-the-emerging-space-arms-race/ Despite their deterrent functions, ASATs are more likely to provoke or exacerbate conflicts than dampen them, especially given the risk they pose to early warning satellites. These satellites are a crucial element of US ballistic missile defense, capable of detecting missiles immediately after launch and tracking their paths. Suppose a US early warning satellite goes dark, or is shut down. Going dark could signal a glitch, but in a world in which other countries have ASATs, it could also signal the beginning of an attack. Without early warning satellites, the United States is much more susceptible to nuclear missiles. Given the strategy of counterforcing—targeting nuclear silos rather than populous cities to prevent a nuclear counterattack—the Americans might believe their nuclear weapons are imminently at risk. It could be twelve hours before the United States regains satellite function, which is too long to wait to put together a nuclear counterattack. The United States, therefore, might move to mobilize a nuclear attack against Russia or China over what might just be a piece of debris shutting off a satellite. Additionally, accidental warfare, or strategic miscalculation, is uniquely likely in space. It is much easier to hold an adversary’s space systems in jeopardy with destructive ASATs than it is to sustainably defend a system, which is expensive and in some cases not technologically feasible because of limitations on satellite movement. Space is therefore considered offense-dominant; offensive tactics like weapons development are prioritized over defensive measures, such as improving GPS or making satellites more resistant to jamming. As a result, countries are left with poorly defended space systems and rely on offensive posturing, which increases the risk that their actions are perceived as aggressive and incentivizes rapid, risky counterattacks because militaries cannot rely on their spaced-based systems after first strikes. There are several hotspots in which ASATs and offensive-dominant systems are particularly relevant. Early warning satellites play a central role in US readiness in the event of a conflict involving North Korea. News of North Korean missile launches comes from these satellites. Given North Korea’s history of nuclear provocations, unflinchingly hostile rhetoric towards the United States and South Korea, and diplomatic opacity, North Korea is always a threatening, unknowable adversary, but recent developments have magnified the risk. With the health of Kim Jong-un potentially in jeopardy, a succession battle or even civil war on the peninsula raises the chances of loose nukes. If the regime is terminal, traditional MAD risk calculus will become moot; with nothing to lose, North Korea would have no reason to hold back its nuclear arsenal. Or China might decide to seize military assets and infrastructure of the regime. If the US does not have its early warning satellites because they have been taken out in an ASAT attack, the US, South Korea, and Japan are all in imminent nuclear peril, while China could be in a position to fundamentally reshape East Asian geopolitics. The South China Sea is another hotspot in which ASATs could risk escalation. China is developing Anti-Access Area Denial (A2/AD) in the South China Sea, a combination of long range radar with air and maritime defense meant to deny US freedom of navigation in the region. Given the disputed nature of territory in the South China Sea, the United States and its allies do not want China to successfully close off the region. But the most effective way to break an A2/AD system would be with anti-satellite weapons. ASATs could neutralize the maritime surveillance China relies upon to deny access to the region and guide cruise missiles. Thus, China is extremely wary of US ASAT development: risks to Beijing’s South China Sea strategy are seen as threats to China itself because of territorial sovereignty claims that are deeply important to the regime and have only become more pronounced under President Xi Jinping. If a Chinese satellite went dark, Beijing might perceive it as a US ASAT designed to undermine the A2/AD approach, and escalate with conventional force. Many of these conflict scenarios start with the loss of satellite function, which may seem unlikely. But ASATs threaten satellites through more than just direct attack. ASAT testing, rather than deployment, risks the exponential accumulation of debris, which endangers satellites and creates a host of other problems. KE-ASATs rely on smashing satellites into thousands of pieces, so each test adds tremendous amounts of space debris. The 2007 Chinese KE-ASAT test alone increased the number of objects in orbit by 20 percent, producing more than two thousand pieces of debris large enough to be tracked and likely thousands more too small to be counted that will remain in orbit for centuries. Even the smallest pieces of debris can do great damage; traveling at more than 15,000 miles per hour, they can crash into other debris in a proliferation known as the Kessler Syndrome. The situation in space could approach a critical mass in which collision cascading occurs even if all launches were halted, choking orbits with debris until all satellites are destroyed and spaceflight rendered impossible. Compared to the negligible debris created during commercial launches, ASAT tests—especially if the arms race continues to escalate and countries with less developed space programs join with cruder designs—may accelerate the debris in space closer and closer to this critical mass. If debris knocks out a satellite, an increasingly likely possibility in a world with ASAT tests, then the aforementioned conflict scenarios become more likely. Conflict aside, ASAT-based debris clouds are terrifying in their own right. Public health, transportation, climate science, and a litany of other crucial infrastructures are dependent on satellites that are now at risk. Satellite GPS is a cornerstone of the modern economy; some pundits believe that the slightest glitch in GPS satellites could shock the stock market and further destabilize an unstable global economy. During the pandemic, satellites are playing a crucial role in geospatial data collection for infectious disease modeling. Essentially, it is hard to imagine a world without satellites, but that is a possible outcome given that there are no reliable methods of withdrawing debris from space.
Nuke war causes extinction – it won’t stay limited
Edwards 17 ~~~(Paul N. Edwards, CISAC’s William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Being interviewed by EarthSky/card is only parts of the interview directly from Paul Edwards.) "How nuclear war would affect Earth’s climate," EarthSky, September 8, 2017, earthsky.org/human-world/how-nuclear-war-would-affect-earths-climate~~~ TDI We are not talking enough about the climatic effects of nuclear war. The "nuclear winter" theory of the mid-1980s played a significant role in the arms reductions of that period. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reduction of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, this aspect of nuclear war has faded from view. That’s not good. In the mid-2000s, climate scientists such as Alan Robock (Rutgers) took another look at nuclear winter theory. This time around, they used much-improved and much more detailed climate models than those available 20 years earlier. They also tested the potential effects of smaller nuclear exchanges. The result: an exchange involving just 50 nuclear weapons — the kind of thing we might see in an India-Pakistan war, for example — could loft 5 billion kilograms of smoke, soot and dust high into the stratosphere. That’s enough to cool the entire planet by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.25 degrees Celsius) — about where we were during the Little Ice Age of the 17th century. Growing seasons could be shortened enough to create really significant food shortages. So the climatic effects of even a relatively small nuclear war would be planet-wide. What about a larger-scale conflict? A U.S.-Russia war currently seems unlikely, but if it were to occur, hundreds or even thousands of nuclear weapons might be launched. The climatic consequences would be catastrophic: global average temperatures would drop as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius) for up to several years — temperatures last seen during the great ice ages. Meanwhile, smoke and dust circulating in the stratosphere would darken the atmosphere enough to inhibit photosynthesis, causing disastrous crop failures, widespread famine and massive ecological disruption. The effect would be similar to that of the giant meteor believed to be responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs. This time, we would be the dinosaurs. Many people are concerned about North Korea’s advancing missile capabilities. Is nuclear war likely in your opinion? At this writing, I think we are closer to a nuclear war than we have been since the early 1960s. In the North Korea case, both Kim Jong-un and President Trump are bullies inclined to escalate confrontations. President Trump lacks impulse control, and there are precious few checks on his ability to initiate a nuclear strike. We have to hope that our generals, both inside and outside the White House, can rein him in. North Korea would most certainly "lose" a nuclear war with the United States. But many millions would die, including hundreds of thousands of Americans currently living in South Korea and Japan (probable North Korean targets). Such vast damage would be wrought in Korea, Japan and Pacific island territories (such as Guam) that any "victory" wouldn’t deserve the name. Not only would that region be left with horrible suffering amongst the survivors; it would also immediately face famine and rampant disease. Radioactive fallout from such a war would spread around the world, including to the U.S. It has been more than 70 years since the last time a nuclear bomb was used in warfare. What would be the effects on the environment and on human health today? To my knowledge, most of the changes in nuclear weapons technology since the 1950s have focused on making them smaller and lighter, and making delivery systems more accurate, rather than on changing their effects on the environment or on human health. So-called "battlefield" weapons with lower explosive yields are part of some arsenals now — but it’s quite unlikely that any exchange between two nuclear powers would stay limited to these smaller, less destructive bombs.
1AC – Advocacy
Thus, resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust.
Bostrom 12 ~(Nick Bostrom, Faculty of Philosophy and Oxford Martin School University of Oxford) "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority." Global Policy, 2012~ TDI These reflections on moral uncertainty suggest an alternative, complementary way of looking at existential
AND
of value. To do this, we must prevent any existential catastrophe.
Pleasure and pain are intrinsically valuable.
Moen 16 ~Ole Martin Moen, Research Fellow in Philosophy at University of Oslo "An Argument for Hedonism" Journal of Value Inquiry (Springer), 50 (2) 2016: 267–281~ TDI Let us start by observing, empirically, that a widely shared judgment about intrinsic
AND
places where we reach the end of the line in matters of value.
Thus, the standard is maximizing expected well-being – prefer:
1~ Actor specificity – Governments must aggregate since every policy benefits some and harms others, which also means side constraints freeze action.
2~ No act-omission distinction—governments are responsible for everything in the public sphere so inaction is implicit authorization of action: they have to yes/no bills, which means everything collapse to aggregation.
1AC – Cosmic Colonialism
Advantage 1 is Cosmic Colonialism.
Private appropriation of outer space expands corporate colonialism.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 3-5~ TDI The 2010s may very well be remembered as the ‘Age of NewSpace', the
AND
space, or ‘astrosociologists' (Dickens and Ormrod, 2007a, 2007b).
NewSpace actors engage in historical revisionism that moralistically justifies endless accumulation by displacing neoliberal guilt.
Johnson ‘20 (Johnson, Matthew Robert. "Mining the high frontier: sovereignty, property and humankind’s common heritage in outer space." PhD diss., University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 2020-08-26; JPark) This card basically says that, independent from the actual material expansion of capitalism/
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outer space for peaceful purposes" (Outer Space Treaty 1967, preamble).
The insistence on outer space as corporate capital’s spatial fix accelerates environmental degradation.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 6-8~ julian As Earth’s empty spaces are filled, as our planet comes to be shorn of
AND
capital itself that must outlive Earth—even into the darkness of space.
Environmental degradation causes extinction.
Dr. Peter Kareiva 18, Ph.D. in Ecology and Applied Mathematics from Cornell University, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, Pritzker Distinguished Professor in Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, et al., September 2018, "Existential Risk Due To Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back", Futures, Volume 102, p. 39-50 In summary, six of the nine proposed planetary boundaries (phosphorous, nitrogen,
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complete scientific understanding when it comes to positive feedback loops and climate change.
Corporate colonialism necessitates mass launch.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM When speaking of viability, one aspect that gets underplayed are the significant ecological effects
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rockets into space—precisely in order to preserve life here on Earth.
That depletes the ozone layer, open the floodgates for existential UV floods, and leaves residual black carbon.
Grush 17 ~Loren Grush, Loren Grush is a science reporter for The Verge, the technology and culture brand from Vox Media, where she specializes in all things space—from distant stars and planets to human space flight and the commercial space race. The daughter of two NASA engineers, she grew up surrounded by space shuttles and rocket scientists—literally. She is also the host of Space Craft, an original online video series that examines what it takes to send people to space. Before joining The Verge, Loren published stories in Popular Science, The New York Times, Nautilus Magazine, Digital Trends, Fox News, and ABC News.) "Why it’s time to study how rocket emissions change the atmosphere: Get the data now before the problem gets worse" The Verge, May 31, 2018~ RM Every time a rocket launches, it produces a plume of exhaust in its wake
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. "WE WANT TO BE PROACTIVE BEFORE THIS TIPPING POINT OCCURS."
occur again, dangerously exposing surface and shallow sea life to harmful radiation.
UV floods supress immune responses and lead to radiation
Lucas et al 14 (R. M. Lucas (National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth 6008, Australia), M. Norval (Biomedical Sciences, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK), R. E. Neale (QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane 4029, Australia), A. R. Young (King's College London (KCL), St John's Institute of Dermatology, London SE1 9RT, UK), F. R. de Gruijl (Department of Dermatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, P.O. Box 9600, NL-2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands), Y. (Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita-shi, Akita Prefecture, Japan, National Institute for Minamata Diseases, Minamata-sh, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan) and J. C. van der Leun (iEcofys, Kanaalweg 16G, NL-3526 KL Utrecht, The Netherlands), "The consequences for human health of stratospheric ozone depletion in association with other environmental factors", November 10th, 2014, https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2015/pp/c4pp90033b) CS Effects of solar UV radiation on immune function and consequences for disease Mechanisms UV photons
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in preventing the development of skin cancers and actinic keratoses.212–214
Viruses to human bacterial genome to damage will ensure the next pandemic is existential
Supriya 4/19 ~Lakshmi Supriya got her BSc in Industrial Chemistry from IIT Kharagpur (India) and a Ph.D. in Polymer Science and Engineering from Virginia Tech (USA). She has more than a decade of global industry experience working in the USA, Europe, and India. After her Ph.D., she worked as part of the RandD group in diverse industries starting with semiconductor packaging at Intel, Arizona, where she developed a new elastomeric thermal solution, which has now been commercialized and is used in the core i3 and i5 processors. From there she went on to work at two startups, one managing the microfluidics chip manufacturing lab at a biotechnology company and the other developing polymer formulations for oil extraction from oil sands. She also worked at Saint Gobain North America, developing various material solutions for photovoltaics and processing techniques and new applications for fluoropolymers. Most recently, she managed the Indian RandD team of Enthone (now part of MacDermid) developing electroplating technologies for precious metals.) "Humans versus viruses - Can we avoid extinction in near future?" News Medical Life Sciences, 4/19/21, https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/Humans-versus-viruses-Can-we-avoid-extinction-in-near-future.aspx~~ RM Expert argues that human-caused changes to the environment can lead to the emergence
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the consequences may be and the next pandemic could lead us to extinction.
1AC – Space War
Advantage 2 is Space War
Deep space exploration is a shared goal that prevents escalation of US-Russia tensions. But privatization threatens it independent of our other internal links
a phase out date of Russian RD-180 rocket engines by 2022.
It’s make or break for the relationship—Ukraine, decline of US moral authority on international affairs puts us at the brink of the end of Russian diplomacy and even war
Weir 21 ~(Fred Weir has been the Monitor's Moscow correspondent, covering Russia and the former Soviet Union, since 1998. He's traveled over much of that vast territory, reporting on stories ranging from Russia's financial crash to the war in Chechnya, creeping Islamization in central Asia, Russia's demographic crisis, the rise of Vladimir Putin and his repeated returns to the Kremlin, and the ups and downs of US-Russia relations). "Worse than the Cold War? US-Russia relations hit new low." Christian Science Monitor 4-20-2021 https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2021/0420/Worse-than-the-Cold-War-US-Russia-relations-hit-new-low~~ TDI Russia’s relations with the West, and the United States in particular, appear to
AND
.S. activities and policies that are harmful to our two countries."
Space weapons heighten potential for escalation and make perceptions of US-Russia space conflict key.
Alexey Arbatov et al, head of the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Major General Vladimir Dvorkin, a principal researcher at the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations and Peter Topychkanov, fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, ‘17 "Russian And Chinese Perspectives On Non-Nuclear Weapons And Nuclear Risks" Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publications, https://www.russiamatters.org/sites/default/files/media/files/Entanglement'interior'FNL.pdf Against this background, Russian military and technical experts are currently engaged in efforts to
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discusses how new and emerging military technologies might contribute to such an escalation.
It’s existential.
Owen Cotton-Barratt 17. PhD in Pure Mathematics, Oxford, Lecturer in Mathematics at Oxford, Research Associate at the Future of Humanity Institute. 2-3-2017. "Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance." https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki demonstrated the unprecedented destructive power of nuclear weapons.
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unreasonable to rule out the possibility of them rising further in the future.
1AC – Debris
Advantage 3 is Debris
Asteroid mining spikes the risk of satellite-dust collisions
Commercial rocket launches produce space clutter—increased debris could reach a tipping point. AND private companies are impossible to control – only space decolonization solves
Thompson 20 ~(Clive, author of Coders: The Making of a New Tribe and the Remaking of the World, a columnist for Wired magazine, and a contributing writer to The New York Times Magazine) "Monetizing the Final Frontier The strange new push for space privatization," December 3, 2020 https://newrepublic.com/article/160303/monetizing-final-frontier~~ TDI "Physics tells us that two things can’t occupy the same space at the same
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as how a Mars colony might exist without becoming a human rights nightmare.
Private space companies vastly outpace the public sector and avoid regulation which makes it a uniquely dangerous industry
Seminar focuses on possible legal frameworks for governing commercial activity in outer space.
Space dust wrecks satellites and debris exponentially spirals
Intagliata 17 ~~~(Christopher Intagliata, MA Journalism from NYU, Editor for NPRs All Things Considered, Reporter/Host for Scientific American’s 60 Second Science) "The Sneaky Danger of Space Dust," Scientific American, May 11, 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-sneaky-danger-of-space-dust/~~~~~~ TDI When tiny particles of space debris slam into satellites, the collision could cause the emission of hardware-frying radiation, Christopher Intagliata reports. Aside from all the satellites, and the space station orbiting the Earth, there's a lot of trash circling the planet, too. Twenty-one thousand baseball-sized chunks of debris, according to NASA. But that number's dwarfed by the number of small particles. There's hundreds of millions of those. "And those smaller particles tend to be going fast. Think of picking up a grain of sand at the beach, and that would be on the large side. But they're going 60 kilometers per second." Sigrid Close, an applied physicist and astronautical engineer at Stanford University. Close says that whereas mechanical damage—like punctures—is the worry with the bigger chunks, the dust-sized stuff might leave more insidious, invisible marks on satellites—by causing electrical damage. "We also think this phenomenon can be attributed to some of the failures and anomalies we see on orbit, that right now are basically tagged as 'unknown cause.'" Close and her colleague Alex Fletcher modeled this phenomenon mathematically, based on plasma physics behavior. And here's what they think happens. First, the dust slams into the spacecraft. Incredibly fast. It vaporizes and ionizes a bit of the ship—and itself. Which generates a cloud of ions and electrons, traveling at different speeds. And then: "It's like a spring action, the electrons are pulled back to the ions, ions are being pushed ahead a little bit. And then the electrons overshoot the ions, so they oscillate, and then they go back out again." That movement of electrons creates a pulse of electromagnetic radiation, which Close says could be the culprit for some of that electrical damage to satellites. The study is in the journal Physics of Plasmas. ~~~Alex C. Fletcher and Sigrid Close, Particle-in-cell simulations of an RF emission mechanism associated with hypervelocity impact plasmas~~~
Early warning satellites going dark signals attacks – causes miscalc and goes nuclear
Orwig 16 ~~~(Jessica, MS in science and tech journalism from Texas AandM, BS in astronomy and physics from Ohio State) "Russia says a growing problem in space could be enough to spark a war," Insider,’ January 26, 2016, https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-says-space-junk-could-spark-war-2016-1~~~~~~ TDI NASA has already warned that the large amount of space junk around our planet is growing beyond our control, but now a team of Russian scientists has cited another potentially unforeseen consequence of that debris: War. Scientists estimate that anywhere from 500,000 to 600,000 pieces of human-made space debris between 0.4 and 4 inches in size are currently orbiting the Earth and traveling at speeds over 17,000 miles per hour. If one of those pieces smashed into a military satellite it "may provoke political or even armed conflict between space-faring nations," Vitaly Adushkin, a researcher for the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, reported in a paper set to be published in the peer-reviewed journal Acta Astronautica, which is sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics. Say, for example, that a satellite was destroyed or significantly damaged in orbit — something that a 4-inch hunk of space junk could easily do traveling at speeds of 17,500 miles per hour, Adushkin reported. (Even smaller pieces no bigger than size of a pea could cause enough damage to the satellite that it would no longer operate correctly, he notes.) It would be difficult for anyone to determine whether the event was accidental or deliberate. This lack of immediate proof could lead to false accusations, heated arguments and, eventually, war, according to Adushkin and his colleagues. A politically dangerous dilemma In the report, the Adushkin said that there have already been repeated "sudden failures" of military spacecraft in the last two decades that cannot be explained. "So, there are two possible explanations," he wrote. The first is "unregistered collisions with space objects." The second is "machinations" ~~~deliberate action~~~ of the space adversary. "This is a politically dangerous dilemma," he added. But these mysterious failures in the past aren't what concerns Adushkin most. It's a future threat of what experts call the cascade effect that has Adushkin and other scientists around the world extremely concerned. The Kessler Syndrome In 1978, American astrophysicist Donald Kessler predicted that the amount of space debris around Earth would begin to grow exponentially after the turn of the millennium. Kessler 's predictions rely on the fact that over time, space junk accumulates. We leave most of our defunct satellites in space, and when meteors and other man-made space debris slam into them, you get a cascade of debris. The cascade effect — also known as the Kessler Syndrome — refers to a critical point wherein the density of space junk grows so large that a single collision could set off a domino effect of increasingly more collisions. For Kessler, this is a problem because it would "create small debris faster than it can be removed," Kessler said last year. And this cloud of junk could eventually make missions to space too dangerous. For Adushkin, this would exacerbate the issue of identifying what, or who, could be behind broken satellites. The future So far, the US and Russian Space Surveillance Systems have catalogued 170,000 pieces of large space debris (between 4 and 8 inches wide) and are currently tracking them to prevent anymore dilemmas like the ones Adushkin and his colleagues cite in their paper. But it's not just the large objects that concern Adushkin, who reported that even small objects (less than 1/3 of an inch) could damage satellites to the point they can't function properly. Using mathematical models, Adushkin and his colleagues calculated what the situtation will be like in 200 years if we continue to leave satellites in space and make no effort to clean up the mess. They estimate we'll have: 1.5 times more fragments greater than 8 inches across 3.2 times more fragments between 4 and 8 inches across 13-20 times more smaller-sized fragments less than 4 inches across "The number of small-size, non-catalogued objects will grow exponentially in mutual collisions," the researchers reported.
Anti-Satellite Weapons and Space Debris Collisions Lead to Arms Race and War
Blatt 20 Talia M. Blatt ~I am a rising sophomore at Harvard, considering a joint concentration in Social Studies and Integrative Biology with a citation in Chinese. I specialize in East Asian geopolitics and security issues~., 26.MAY.2020, "Anti-Satellite Weapons and the Emerging Space Arms Race," Harvard International Review, https://hir.harvard.edu/anti-satellite-weapons-and-the-emerging-space-arms-race/ Despite their deterrent functions, ASATs are more likely to provoke or exacerbate conflicts than dampen them, especially given the risk they pose to early warning satellites. These satellites are a crucial element of US ballistic missile defense, capable of detecting missiles immediately after launch and tracking their paths. Suppose a US early warning satellite goes dark, or is shut down. Going dark could signal a glitch, but in a world in which other countries have ASATs, it could also signal the beginning of an attack. Without early warning satellites, the United States is much more susceptible to nuclear missiles. Given the strategy of counterforcing—targeting nuclear silos rather than populous cities to prevent a nuclear counterattack—the Americans might believe their nuclear weapons are imminently at risk. It could be twelve hours before the United States regains satellite function, which is too long to wait to put together a nuclear counterattack. The United States, therefore, might move to mobilize a nuclear attack against Russia or China over what might just be a piece of debris shutting off a satellite. Additionally, accidental warfare, or strategic miscalculation, is uniquely likely in space. It is much easier to hold an adversary’s space systems in jeopardy with destructive ASATs than it is to sustainably defend a system, which is expensive and in some cases not technologically feasible because of limitations on satellite movement. Space is therefore considered offense-dominant; offensive tactics like weapons development are prioritized over defensive measures, such as improving GPS or making satellites more resistant to jamming. As a result, countries are left with poorly defended space systems and rely on offensive posturing, which increases the risk that their actions are perceived as aggressive and incentivizes rapid, risky counterattacks because militaries cannot rely on their spaced-based systems after first strikes. There are several hotspots in which ASATs and offensive-dominant systems are particularly relevant. Early warning satellites play a central role in US readiness in the event of a conflict involving North Korea. News of North Korean missile launches comes from these satellites. Given North Korea’s history of nuclear provocations, unflinchingly hostile rhetoric towards the United States and South Korea, and diplomatic opacity, North Korea is always a threatening, unknowable adversary, but recent developments have magnified the risk. With the health of Kim Jong-un potentially in jeopardy, a succession battle or even civil war on the peninsula raises the chances of loose nukes. If the regime is terminal, traditional MAD risk calculus will become moot; with nothing to lose, North Korea would have no reason to hold back its nuclear arsenal. Or China might decide to seize military assets and infrastructure of the regime. If the US does not have its early warning satellites because they have been taken out in an ASAT attack, the US, South Korea, and Japan are all in imminent nuclear peril, while China could be in a position to fundamentally reshape East Asian geopolitics. The South China Sea is another hotspot in which ASATs could risk escalation. China is developing Anti-Access Area Denial (A2/AD) in the South China Sea, a combination of long range radar with air and maritime defense meant to deny US freedom of navigation in the region. Given the disputed nature of territory in the South China Sea, the United States and its allies do not want China to successfully close off the region. But the most effective way to break an A2/AD system would be with anti-satellite weapons. ASATs could neutralize the maritime surveillance China relies upon to deny access to the region and guide cruise missiles. Thus, China is extremely wary of US ASAT development: risks to Beijing’s South China Sea strategy are seen as threats to China itself because of territorial sovereignty claims that are deeply important to the regime and have only become more pronounced under President Xi Jinping. If a Chinese satellite went dark, Beijing might perceive it as a US ASAT designed to undermine the A2/AD approach, and escalate with conventional force. Many of these conflict scenarios start with the loss of satellite function, which may seem unlikely. But ASATs threaten satellites through more than just direct attack. ASAT testing, rather than deployment, risks the exponential accumulation of debris, which endangers satellites and creates a host of other problems. KE-ASATs rely on smashing satellites into thousands of pieces, so each test adds tremendous amounts of space debris. The 2007 Chinese KE-ASAT test alone increased the number of objects in orbit by 20 percent, producing more than two thousand pieces of debris large enough to be tracked and likely thousands more too small to be counted that will remain in orbit for centuries. Even the smallest pieces of debris can do great damage; traveling at more than 15,000 miles per hour, they can crash into other debris in a proliferation known as the Kessler Syndrome. The situation in space could approach a critical mass in which collision cascading occurs even if all launches were halted, choking orbits with debris until all satellites are destroyed and spaceflight rendered impossible. Compared to the negligible debris created during commercial launches, ASAT tests—especially if the arms race continues to escalate and countries with less developed space programs join with cruder designs—may accelerate the debris in space closer and closer to this critical mass. If debris knocks out a satellite, an increasingly likely possibility in a world with ASAT tests, then the aforementioned conflict scenarios become more likely. Conflict aside, ASAT-based debris clouds are terrifying in their own right. Public health, transportation, climate science, and a litany of other crucial infrastructures are dependent on satellites that are now at risk. Satellite GPS is a cornerstone of the modern economy; some pundits believe that the slightest glitch in GPS satellites could shock the stock market and further destabilize an unstable global economy. During the pandemic, satellites are playing a crucial role in geospatial data collection for infectious disease modeling. Essentially, it is hard to imagine a world without satellites, but that is a possible outcome given that there are no reliable methods of withdrawing debris from space.
Nuke war causes extinction – it won’t stay limited
Edwards 17 ~~~(Paul N. Edwards, CISAC’s William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Being interviewed by EarthSky/card is only parts of the interview directly from Paul Edwards.) "How nuclear war would affect Earth’s climate," EarthSky, September 8, 2017, earthsky.org/human-world/how-nuclear-war-would-affect-earths-climate~~~ TDI We are not talking enough about the climatic effects of nuclear war. The "nuclear winter" theory of the mid-1980s played a significant role in the arms reductions of that period. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reduction of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, this aspect of nuclear war has faded from view. That’s not good. In the mid-2000s, climate scientists such as Alan Robock (Rutgers) took another look at nuclear winter theory. This time around, they used much-improved and much more detailed climate models than those available 20 years earlier. They also tested the potential effects of smaller nuclear exchanges. The result: an exchange involving just 50 nuclear weapons — the kind of thing we might see in an India-Pakistan war, for example — could loft 5 billion kilograms of smoke, soot and dust high into the stratosphere. That’s enough to cool the entire planet by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.25 degrees Celsius) — about where we were during the Little Ice Age of the 17th century. Growing seasons could be shortened enough to create really significant food shortages. So the climatic effects of even a relatively small nuclear war would be planet-wide. What about a larger-scale conflict? A U.S.-Russia war currently seems unlikely, but if it were to occur, hundreds or even thousands of nuclear weapons might be launched. The climatic consequences would be catastrophic: global average temperatures would drop as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius) for up to several years — temperatures last seen during the great ice ages. Meanwhile, smoke and dust circulating in the stratosphere would darken the atmosphere enough to inhibit photosynthesis, causing disastrous crop failures, widespread famine and massive ecological disruption. The effect would be similar to that of the giant meteor believed to be responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs. This time, we would be the dinosaurs. Many people are concerned about North Korea’s advancing missile capabilities. Is nuclear war likely in your opinion? At this writing, I think we are closer to a nuclear war than we have been since the early 1960s. In the North Korea case, both Kim Jong-un and President Trump are bullies inclined to escalate confrontations. President Trump lacks impulse control, and there are precious few checks on his ability to initiate a nuclear strike. We have to hope that our generals, both inside and outside the White House, can rein him in. North Korea would most certainly "lose" a nuclear war with the United States. But many millions would die, including hundreds of thousands of Americans currently living in South Korea and Japan (probable North Korean targets). Such vast damage would be wrought in Korea, Japan and Pacific island territories (such as Guam) that any "victory" wouldn’t deserve the name. Not only would that region be left with horrible suffering amongst the survivors; it would also immediately face famine and rampant disease. Radioactive fallout from such a war would spread around the world, including to the U.S. It has been more than 70 years since the last time a nuclear bomb was used in warfare. What would be the effects on the environment and on human health today? To my knowledge, most of the changes in nuclear weapons technology since the 1950s have focused on making them smaller and lighter, and making delivery systems more accurate, rather than on changing their effects on the environment or on human health. So-called "battlefield" weapons with lower explosive yields are part of some arsenals now — but it’s quite unlikely that any exchange between two nuclear powers would stay limited to these smaller, less destructive bombs.
1AC – Advocacy
Thus, resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust.
2/19/22
JANFEB - 1AC - Cosmic Colonialism v6
Tournament: Cal | Round: 6 | Opponent: Mission San Jose | Judge: Bennett Dombcik
1AC – Cosmic Colonialism
1AC
1AC – Framing
Extinction first —- moral uncertainty.
Bostrom 12 ~(Nick Bostrom, Faculty of Philosophy and Oxford Martin School University of Oxford) "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority." Global Policy, 2012~ TDI These reflections on moral uncertainty suggest an alternative, complementary way of looking at existential
AND
of value. To do this, we must prevent any existential catastrophe.
Pleasure and pain are intrinsically valuable.
Moen 16 ~Ole Martin Moen, Research Fellow in Philosophy at University of Oslo "An Argument for Hedonism" Journal of Value Inquiry (Springer), 50 (2) 2016: 267–281~ TDI Let us start by observing, empirically, that a widely shared judgment about intrinsic
AND
places where we reach the end of the line in matters of value.
1AC – Cosmic Colonialism
Advantage 1 is Cosmic Colonialism.
Private appropriation of outer space expands corporate colonialism.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 3-5~ TDI The 2010s may very well be remembered as the ‘Age of NewSpace', the
AND
space, or ‘astrosociologists' (Dickens and Ormrod, 2007a, 2007b).
NewSpace actors engage in historical revisionism that moralistically justifies endless accumulation by displacing neoliberal guilt.
Johnson ‘20 (Johnson, Matthew Robert. "Mining the high frontier: sovereignty, property and humankind’s common heritage in outer space." PhD diss., University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 2020-08-26; JPark) This card basically says that, independent from the actual material expansion of capitalism/
AND
outer space for peaceful purposes" (Outer Space Treaty 1967, preamble).
The insistence on outer space as corporate capital’s spatial fix accelerates environmental degradation.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 6-8~ julian As Earth’s empty spaces are filled, as our planet comes to be shorn of
AND
capital itself that must outlive Earth—even into the darkness of space.
Environmental degradation causes extinction.
Dr. Peter Kareiva 18, Ph.D. in Ecology and Applied Mathematics from Cornell University, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, Pritzker Distinguished Professor in Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, et al., September 2018, "Existential Risk Due To Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back", Futures, Volume 102, p. 39-50 In summary, six of the nine proposed planetary boundaries (phosphorous, nitrogen,
AND
complete scientific understanding when it comes to positive feedback loops and climate change.
Corporate colonialism necessitates mass launch.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM When speaking of viability, one aspect that gets underplayed are the significant ecological effects
AND
rockets into space—precisely in order to preserve life here on Earth.
That depletes the ozone layer, open the floodgates for existential UV floods, and leaves residual black carbon.
Grush 17 ~Loren Grush, Loren Grush is a science reporter for The Verge, the technology and culture brand from Vox Media, where she specializes in all things space—from distant stars and planets to human space flight and the commercial space race. The daughter of two NASA engineers, she grew up surrounded by space shuttles and rocket scientists—literally. She is also the host of Space Craft, an original online video series that examines what it takes to send people to space. Before joining The Verge, Loren published stories in Popular Science, The New York Times, Nautilus Magazine, Digital Trends, Fox News, and ABC News.) "Why it’s time to study how rocket emissions change the atmosphere: Get the data now before the problem gets worse" The Verge, May 31, 2018~ RM Every time a rocket launches, it produces a plume of exhaust in its wake
AND
. "WE WANT TO BE PROACTIVE BEFORE THIS TIPPING POINT OCCURS."
occur again, dangerously exposing surface and shallow sea life to harmful radiation.
UV floods supress immune responses and lead to radiation
Lucas et al 14 (R. M. Lucas (National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth 6008, Australia), M. Norval (Biomedical Sciences, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK), R. E. Neale (QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane 4029, Australia), A. R. Young (King's College London (KCL), St John's Institute of Dermatology, London SE1 9RT, UK), F. R. de Gruijl (Department of Dermatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, P.O. Box 9600, NL-2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands), Y. (Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita-shi, Akita Prefecture, Japan, National Institute for Minamata Diseases, Minamata-sh, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan) and J. C. van der Leun (iEcofys, Kanaalweg 16G, NL-3526 KL Utrecht, The Netherlands), "The consequences for human health of stratospheric ozone depletion in association with other environmental factors", November 10th, 2014, https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2015/pp/c4pp90033b) CS Effects of solar UV radiation on immune function and consequences for disease Mechanisms UV photons
AND
in preventing the development of skin cancers and actinic keratoses.212–214
Viruses to human bacterial genome to damage will ensure the next pandemic is existential
Supriya 4/19 ~Lakshmi Supriya got her BSc in Industrial Chemistry from IIT Kharagpur (India) and a Ph.D. in Polymer Science and Engineering from Virginia Tech (USA). She has more than a decade of global industry experience working in the USA, Europe, and India. After her Ph.D., she worked as part of the RandD group in diverse industries starting with semiconductor packaging at Intel, Arizona, where she developed a new elastomeric thermal solution, which has now been commercialized and is used in the core i3 and i5 processors. From there she went on to work at two startups, one managing the microfluidics chip manufacturing lab at a biotechnology company and the other developing polymer formulations for oil extraction from oil sands. She also worked at Saint Gobain North America, developing various material solutions for photovoltaics and processing techniques and new applications for fluoropolymers. Most recently, she managed the Indian RandD team of Enthone (now part of MacDermid) developing electroplating technologies for precious metals.) "Humans versus viruses - Can we avoid extinction in near future?" News Medical Life Sciences, 4/19/21, https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/Humans-versus-viruses-Can-we-avoid-extinction-in-near-future.aspx~~ RM Expert argues that human-caused changes to the environment can lead to the emergence
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the consequences may be and the next pandemic could lead us to extinction.
1AC – Space War
Advantage 2 is Space War
Deep space exploration is a shared goal that prevents escalation of US-Russia tensions. But privatization threatens it independent of our other internal links
a phase out date of Russian RD-180 rocket engines by 2022.
It’s make or break for the relationship—Ukraine, decline of US moral authority on international affairs puts us at the brink of the end of Russian diplomacy and even war
Weir 21 ~(Fred Weir has been the Monitor's Moscow correspondent, covering Russia and the former Soviet Union, since 1998. He's traveled over much of that vast territory, reporting on stories ranging from Russia's financial crash to the war in Chechnya, creeping Islamization in central Asia, Russia's demographic crisis, the rise of Vladimir Putin and his repeated returns to the Kremlin, and the ups and downs of US-Russia relations). "Worse than the Cold War? US-Russia relations hit new low." Christian Science Monitor 4-20-2021 https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2021/0420/Worse-than-the-Cold-War-US-Russia-relations-hit-new-low~~ TDI Russia’s relations with the West, and the United States in particular, appear to
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.S. activities and policies that are harmful to our two countries."
Space weapons heighten potential for escalation and make perceptions of US-Russia space conflict key.
Alexey Arbatov et al, head of the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Major General Vladimir Dvorkin, a principal researcher at the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations and Peter Topychkanov, fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, ‘17 "Russian And Chinese Perspectives On Non-Nuclear Weapons And Nuclear Risks" Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publications, https://www.russiamatters.org/sites/default/files/media/files/Entanglement'interior'FNL.pdf Against this background, Russian military and technical experts are currently engaged in efforts to
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discusses how new and emerging military technologies might contribute to such an escalation.
It’s existential.
Owen Cotton-Barratt 17. PhD in Pure Mathematics, Oxford, Lecturer in Mathematics at Oxford, Research Associate at the Future of Humanity Institute. 2-3-2017. "Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance." https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki demonstrated the unprecedented destructive power of nuclear weapons.
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unreasonable to rule out the possibility of them rising further in the future.
1AC – Debris
Advantage 3 is Debris
Asteroid mining spikes the risk of satellite-dust collisions
Commercial rocket launches produce space clutter—increased debris could reach a tipping point. AND private companies are impossible to control – only space decolonization solves
Thompson 20 ~(Clive, author of Coders: The Making of a New Tribe and the Remaking of the World, a columnist for Wired magazine, and a contributing writer to The New York Times Magazine) "Monetizing the Final Frontier The strange new push for space privatization," December 3, 2020 https://newrepublic.com/article/160303/monetizing-final-frontier~~ TDI "Physics tells us that two things can’t occupy the same space at the same
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as how a Mars colony might exist without becoming a human rights nightmare.
Private space companies vastly outpace the public sector and avoid regulation which makes it a uniquely dangerous industry
Seminar focuses on possible legal frameworks for governing commercial activity in outer space.
Space dust wrecks satellites and debris exponentially spirals
Intagliata 17 ~~~(Christopher Intagliata, MA Journalism from NYU, Editor for NPRs All Things Considered, Reporter/Host for Scientific American’s 60 Second Science) "The Sneaky Danger of Space Dust," Scientific American, May 11, 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-sneaky-danger-of-space-dust/~~~~~~ TDI When tiny particles of space debris slam into satellites, the collision could cause the emission of hardware-frying radiation, Christopher Intagliata reports. Aside from all the satellites, and the space station orbiting the Earth, there's a lot of trash circling the planet, too. Twenty-one thousand baseball-sized chunks of debris, according to NASA. But that number's dwarfed by the number of small particles. There's hundreds of millions of those. "And those smaller particles tend to be going fast. Think of picking up a grain of sand at the beach, and that would be on the large side. But they're going 60 kilometers per second." Sigrid Close, an applied physicist and astronautical engineer at Stanford University. Close says that whereas mechanical damage—like punctures—is the worry with the bigger chunks, the dust-sized stuff might leave more insidious, invisible marks on satellites—by causing electrical damage. "We also think this phenomenon can be attributed to some of the failures and anomalies we see on orbit, that right now are basically tagged as 'unknown cause.'" Close and her colleague Alex Fletcher modeled this phenomenon mathematically, based on plasma physics behavior. And here's what they think happens. First, the dust slams into the spacecraft. Incredibly fast. It vaporizes and ionizes a bit of the ship—and itself. Which generates a cloud of ions and electrons, traveling at different speeds. And then: "It's like a spring action, the electrons are pulled back to the ions, ions are being pushed ahead a little bit. And then the electrons overshoot the ions, so they oscillate, and then they go back out again." That movement of electrons creates a pulse of electromagnetic radiation, which Close says could be the culprit for some of that electrical damage to satellites. The study is in the journal Physics of Plasmas. ~~~Alex C. Fletcher and Sigrid Close, Particle-in-cell simulations of an RF emission mechanism associated with hypervelocity impact plasmas~~~
Early warning satellites going dark signals attacks – causes miscalc and goes nuclear
Orwig 16 ~~~(Jessica, MS in science and tech journalism from Texas AandM, BS in astronomy and physics from Ohio State) "Russia says a growing problem in space could be enough to spark a war," Insider,’ January 26, 2016, https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-says-space-junk-could-spark-war-2016-1~~~~~~ TDI NASA has already warned that the large amount of space junk around our planet is growing beyond our control, but now a team of Russian scientists has cited another potentially unforeseen consequence of that debris: War. Scientists estimate that anywhere from 500,000 to 600,000 pieces of human-made space debris between 0.4 and 4 inches in size are currently orbiting the Earth and traveling at speeds over 17,000 miles per hour. If one of those pieces smashed into a military satellite it "may provoke political or even armed conflict between space-faring nations," Vitaly Adushkin, a researcher for the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, reported in a paper set to be published in the peer-reviewed journal Acta Astronautica, which is sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics. Say, for example, that a satellite was destroyed or significantly damaged in orbit — something that a 4-inch hunk of space junk could easily do traveling at speeds of 17,500 miles per hour, Adushkin reported. (Even smaller pieces no bigger than size of a pea could cause enough damage to the satellite that it would no longer operate correctly, he notes.) It would be difficult for anyone to determine whether the event was accidental or deliberate. This lack of immediate proof could lead to false accusations, heated arguments and, eventually, war, according to Adushkin and his colleagues. A politically dangerous dilemma In the report, the Adushkin said that there have already been repeated "sudden failures" of military spacecraft in the last two decades that cannot be explained. "So, there are two possible explanations," he wrote. The first is "unregistered collisions with space objects." The second is "machinations" ~~~deliberate action~~~ of the space adversary. "This is a politically dangerous dilemma," he added. But these mysterious failures in the past aren't what concerns Adushkin most. It's a future threat of what experts call the cascade effect that has Adushkin and other scientists around the world extremely concerned. The Kessler Syndrome In 1978, American astrophysicist Donald Kessler predicted that the amount of space debris around Earth would begin to grow exponentially after the turn of the millennium. Kessler 's predictions rely on the fact that over time, space junk accumulates. We leave most of our defunct satellites in space, and when meteors and other man-made space debris slam into them, you get a cascade of debris. The cascade effect — also known as the Kessler Syndrome — refers to a critical point wherein the density of space junk grows so large that a single collision could set off a domino effect of increasingly more collisions. For Kessler, this is a problem because it would "create small debris faster than it can be removed," Kessler said last year. And this cloud of junk could eventually make missions to space too dangerous. For Adushkin, this would exacerbate the issue of identifying what, or who, could be behind broken satellites. The future So far, the US and Russian Space Surveillance Systems have catalogued 170,000 pieces of large space debris (between 4 and 8 inches wide) and are currently tracking them to prevent anymore dilemmas like the ones Adushkin and his colleagues cite in their paper. But it's not just the large objects that concern Adushkin, who reported that even small objects (less than 1/3 of an inch) could damage satellites to the point they can't function properly. Using mathematical models, Adushkin and his colleagues calculated what the situtation will be like in 200 years if we continue to leave satellites in space and make no effort to clean up the mess. They estimate we'll have: 1.5 times more fragments greater than 8 inches across 3.2 times more fragments between 4 and 8 inches across 13-20 times more smaller-sized fragments less than 4 inches across "The number of small-size, non-catalogued objects will grow exponentially in mutual collisions," the researchers reported.
Anti-Satellite Weapons and Space Debris Collisions Lead to Arms Race and War
Blatt 20 Talia M. Blatt ~I am a rising sophomore at Harvard, considering a joint concentration in Social Studies and Integrative Biology with a citation in Chinese. I specialize in East Asian geopolitics and security issues~., 26.MAY.2020, "Anti-Satellite Weapons and the Emerging Space Arms Race," Harvard International Review, https://hir.harvard.edu/anti-satellite-weapons-and-the-emerging-space-arms-race/ Despite their deterrent functions, ASATs are more likely to provoke or exacerbate conflicts than dampen them, especially given the risk they pose to early warning satellites. These satellites are a crucial element of US ballistic missile defense, capable of detecting missiles immediately after launch and tracking their paths. Suppose a US early warning satellite goes dark, or is shut down. Going dark could signal a glitch, but in a world in which other countries have ASATs, it could also signal the beginning of an attack. Without early warning satellites, the United States is much more susceptible to nuclear missiles. Given the strategy of counterforcing—targeting nuclear silos rather than populous cities to prevent a nuclear counterattack—the Americans might believe their nuclear weapons are imminently at risk. It could be twelve hours before the United States regains satellite function, which is too long to wait to put together a nuclear counterattack. The United States, therefore, might move to mobilize a nuclear attack against Russia or China over what might just be a piece of debris shutting off a satellite. Additionally, accidental warfare, or strategic miscalculation, is uniquely likely in space. It is much easier to hold an adversary’s space systems in jeopardy with destructive ASATs than it is to sustainably defend a system, which is expensive and in some cases not technologically feasible because of limitations on satellite movement. Space is therefore considered offense-dominant; offensive tactics like weapons development are prioritized over defensive measures, such as improving GPS or making satellites more resistant to jamming. As a result, countries are left with poorly defended space systems and rely on offensive posturing, which increases the risk that their actions are perceived as aggressive and incentivizes rapid, risky counterattacks because militaries cannot rely on their spaced-based systems after first strikes. There are several hotspots in which ASATs and offensive-dominant systems are particularly relevant. Early warning satellites play a central role in US readiness in the event of a conflict involving North Korea. News of North Korean missile launches comes from these satellites. Given North Korea’s history of nuclear provocations, unflinchingly hostile rhetoric towards the United States and South Korea, and diplomatic opacity, North Korea is always a threatening, unknowable adversary, but recent developments have magnified the risk. With the health of Kim Jong-un potentially in jeopardy, a succession battle or even civil war on the peninsula raises the chances of loose nukes. If the regime is terminal, traditional MAD risk calculus will become moot; with nothing to lose, North Korea would have no reason to hold back its nuclear arsenal. Or China might decide to seize military assets and infrastructure of the regime. If the US does not have its early warning satellites because they have been taken out in an ASAT attack, the US, South Korea, and Japan are all in imminent nuclear peril, while China could be in a position to fundamentally reshape East Asian geopolitics. The South China Sea is another hotspot in which ASATs could risk escalation. China is developing Anti-Access Area Denial (A2/AD) in the South China Sea, a combination of long range radar with air and maritime defense meant to deny US freedom of navigation in the region. Given the disputed nature of territory in the South China Sea, the United States and its allies do not want China to successfully close off the region. But the most effective way to break an A2/AD system would be with anti-satellite weapons. ASATs could neutralize the maritime surveillance China relies upon to deny access to the region and guide cruise missiles. Thus, China is extremely wary of US ASAT development: risks to Beijing’s South China Sea strategy are seen as threats to China itself because of territorial sovereignty claims that are deeply important to the regime and have only become more pronounced under President Xi Jinping. If a Chinese satellite went dark, Beijing might perceive it as a US ASAT designed to undermine the A2/AD approach, and escalate with conventional force. Many of these conflict scenarios start with the loss of satellite function, which may seem unlikely. But ASATs threaten satellites through more than just direct attack. ASAT testing, rather than deployment, risks the exponential accumulation of debris, which endangers satellites and creates a host of other problems. KE-ASATs rely on smashing satellites into thousands of pieces, so each test adds tremendous amounts of space debris. The 2007 Chinese KE-ASAT test alone increased the number of objects in orbit by 20 percent, producing more than two thousand pieces of debris large enough to be tracked and likely thousands more too small to be counted that will remain in orbit for centuries. Even the smallest pieces of debris can do great damage; traveling at more than 15,000 miles per hour, they can crash into other debris in a proliferation known as the Kessler Syndrome. The situation in space could approach a critical mass in which collision cascading occurs even if all launches were halted, choking orbits with debris until all satellites are destroyed and spaceflight rendered impossible. Compared to the negligible debris created during commercial launches, ASAT tests—especially if the arms race continues to escalate and countries with less developed space programs join with cruder designs—may accelerate the debris in space closer and closer to this critical mass. If debris knocks out a satellite, an increasingly likely possibility in a world with ASAT tests, then the aforementioned conflict scenarios become more likely. Conflict aside, ASAT-based debris clouds are terrifying in their own right. Public health, transportation, climate science, and a litany of other crucial infrastructures are dependent on satellites that are now at risk. Satellite GPS is a cornerstone of the modern economy; some pundits believe that the slightest glitch in GPS satellites could shock the stock market and further destabilize an unstable global economy. During the pandemic, satellites are playing a crucial role in geospatial data collection for infectious disease modeling. Essentially, it is hard to imagine a world without satellites, but that is a possible outcome given that there are no reliable methods of withdrawing debris from space.
Nuke war causes extinction – it won’t stay limited
Edwards 17 ~~~(Paul N. Edwards, CISAC’s William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Being interviewed by EarthSky/card is only parts of the interview directly from Paul Edwards.) "How nuclear war would affect Earth’s climate," EarthSky, September 8, 2017, earthsky.org/human-world/how-nuclear-war-would-affect-earths-climate~~~ TDI We are not talking enough about the climatic effects of nuclear war. The "nuclear winter" theory of the mid-1980s played a significant role in the arms reductions of that period. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reduction of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, this aspect of nuclear war has faded from view. That’s not good. In the mid-2000s, climate scientists such as Alan Robock (Rutgers) took another look at nuclear winter theory. This time around, they used much-improved and much more detailed climate models than those available 20 years earlier. They also tested the potential effects of smaller nuclear exchanges. The result: an exchange involving just 50 nuclear weapons — the kind of thing we might see in an India-Pakistan war, for example — could loft 5 billion kilograms of smoke, soot and dust high into the stratosphere. That’s enough to cool the entire planet by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.25 degrees Celsius) — about where we were during the Little Ice Age of the 17th century. Growing seasons could be shortened enough to create really significant food shortages. So the climatic effects of even a relatively small nuclear war would be planet-wide. What about a larger-scale conflict? A U.S.-Russia war currently seems unlikely, but if it were to occur, hundreds or even thousands of nuclear weapons might be launched. The climatic consequences would be catastrophic: global average temperatures would drop as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius) for up to several years — temperatures last seen during the great ice ages. Meanwhile, smoke and dust circulating in the stratosphere would darken the atmosphere enough to inhibit photosynthesis, causing disastrous crop failures, widespread famine and massive ecological disruption. The effect would be similar to that of the giant meteor believed to be responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs. This time, we would be the dinosaurs. Many people are concerned about North Korea’s advancing missile capabilities. Is nuclear war likely in your opinion? At this writing, I think we are closer to a nuclear war than we have been since the early 1960s. In the North Korea case, both Kim Jong-un and President Trump are bullies inclined to escalate confrontations. President Trump lacks impulse control, and there are precious few checks on his ability to initiate a nuclear strike. We have to hope that our generals, both inside and outside the White House, can rein him in. North Korea would most certainly "lose" a nuclear war with the United States. But many millions would die, including hundreds of thousands of Americans currently living in South Korea and Japan (probable North Korean targets). Such vast damage would be wrought in Korea, Japan and Pacific island territories (such as Guam) that any "victory" wouldn’t deserve the name. Not only would that region be left with horrible suffering amongst the survivors; it would also immediately face famine and rampant disease. Radioactive fallout from such a war would spread around the world, including to the U.S. It has been more than 70 years since the last time a nuclear bomb was used in warfare. What would be the effects on the environment and on human health today? To my knowledge, most of the changes in nuclear weapons technology since the 1950s have focused on making them smaller and lighter, and making delivery systems more accurate, rather than on changing their effects on the environment or on human health. So-called "battlefield" weapons with lower explosive yields are part of some arsenals now — but it’s quite unlikely that any exchange between two nuclear powers would stay limited to these smaller, less destructive bombs.
1AC – Advocacy
Thus, resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust.
2/20/22
JANFEB - 1AC - Cosmic Colonialism v7
Tournament: Cal | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Isidore Newman EE | Judge: Vishvak Bandi, Truman Le, Lindsay Van Luvanee
1AC – Cosmic Colonialism
1AC
1AC – Framing
Extinction first —- moral uncertainty.
Bostrom 12 ~(Nick Bostrom, Faculty of Philosophy and Oxford Martin School University of Oxford) "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority." Global Policy, 2012~ TDI These reflections on moral uncertainty suggest an alternative, complementary way of looking at existential
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of value. To do this, we must prevent any existential catastrophe.
Pleasure and pain are intrinsically valuable.
Moen 16 ~Ole Martin Moen, Research Fellow in Philosophy at University of Oslo "An Argument for Hedonism" Journal of Value Inquiry (Springer), 50 (2) 2016: 267–281~ TDI Let us start by observing, empirically, that a widely shared judgment about intrinsic
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places where we reach the end of the line in matters of value.
1AC – Cosmic Colonialism
Advantage 1 is Cosmic Colonialism.
Private appropriation of outer space expands corporate colonialism.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 3-5~ TDI The 2010s may very well be remembered as the ‘Age of NewSpace', the
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space, or ‘astrosociologists' (Dickens and Ormrod, 2007a, 2007b).
NewSpace actors engage in historical revisionism that moralistically justifies endless accumulation by displacing neoliberal guilt.
Johnson ‘20 (Johnson, Matthew Robert. "Mining the high frontier: sovereignty, property and humankind’s common heritage in outer space." PhD diss., University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 2020-08-26; JPark) This card basically says that, independent from the actual material expansion of capitalism/
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outer space for peaceful purposes" (Outer Space Treaty 1967, preamble).
The insistence on outer space as corporate capital’s spatial fix accelerates environmental degradation.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~(Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "One giant leap for capitalistkind: private enterprise in outer space," 1-29-2019, pg. 6-8~ julian As Earth’s empty spaces are filled, as our planet comes to be shorn of
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capital itself that must outlive Earth—even into the darkness of space.
Environmental degradation causes extinction.
Dr. Peter Kareiva 18, Ph.D. in Ecology and Applied Mathematics from Cornell University, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, Pritzker Distinguished Professor in Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, et al., September 2018, "Existential Risk Due To Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back", Futures, Volume 102, p. 39-50 In summary, six of the nine proposed planetary boundaries (phosphorous, nitrogen,
AND
complete scientific understanding when it comes to positive feedback loops and climate change.
Corporate colonialism necessitates mass launch.
Shammas and Holen 19 ~Victor L, a sociologist working at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo; Tomas B., independent scholar in Oslo, Norway) "Capitalism and Outer Space: Replies to an Interlocutor" Dr. Victor Lund Shammas Blog, https://www.victorshammas.com/blog/2019/12/17/capitalism-and-outer-space, 12/18/2019~ RM When speaking of viability, one aspect that gets underplayed are the significant ecological effects
AND
rockets into space—precisely in order to preserve life here on Earth.
That depletes the ozone layer, open the floodgates for existential UV floods, and leaves residual black carbon.
Grush 17 ~Loren Grush, Loren Grush is a science reporter for The Verge, the technology and culture brand from Vox Media, where she specializes in all things space—from distant stars and planets to human space flight and the commercial space race. The daughter of two NASA engineers, she grew up surrounded by space shuttles and rocket scientists—literally. She is also the host of Space Craft, an original online video series that examines what it takes to send people to space. Before joining The Verge, Loren published stories in Popular Science, The New York Times, Nautilus Magazine, Digital Trends, Fox News, and ABC News.) "Why it’s time to study how rocket emissions change the atmosphere: Get the data now before the problem gets worse" The Verge, May 31, 2018~ RM Every time a rocket launches, it produces a plume of exhaust in its wake
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. "WE WANT TO BE PROACTIVE BEFORE THIS TIPPING POINT OCCURS."
occur again, dangerously exposing surface and shallow sea life to harmful radiation.
UV floods supress immune responses and lead to radiation
Lucas et al 14 (R. M. Lucas (National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth 6008, Australia), M. Norval (Biomedical Sciences, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK), R. E. Neale (QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane 4029, Australia), A. R. Young (King's College London (KCL), St John's Institute of Dermatology, London SE1 9RT, UK), F. R. de Gruijl (Department of Dermatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, P.O. Box 9600, NL-2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands), Y. (Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita-shi, Akita Prefecture, Japan, National Institute for Minamata Diseases, Minamata-sh, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan) and J. C. van der Leun (iEcofys, Kanaalweg 16G, NL-3526 KL Utrecht, The Netherlands), "The consequences for human health of stratospheric ozone depletion in association with other environmental factors", November 10th, 2014, https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2015/pp/c4pp90033b) CS Effects of solar UV radiation on immune function and consequences for disease Mechanisms UV photons
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in preventing the development of skin cancers and actinic keratoses.212–214
Viruses to human bacterial genome to damage will ensure the next pandemic is existential
Supriya 4/19 ~Lakshmi Supriya got her BSc in Industrial Chemistry from IIT Kharagpur (India) and a Ph.D. in Polymer Science and Engineering from Virginia Tech (USA). She has more than a decade of global industry experience working in the USA, Europe, and India. After her Ph.D., she worked as part of the RandD group in diverse industries starting with semiconductor packaging at Intel, Arizona, where she developed a new elastomeric thermal solution, which has now been commercialized and is used in the core i3 and i5 processors. From there she went on to work at two startups, one managing the microfluidics chip manufacturing lab at a biotechnology company and the other developing polymer formulations for oil extraction from oil sands. She also worked at Saint Gobain North America, developing various material solutions for photovoltaics and processing techniques and new applications for fluoropolymers. Most recently, she managed the Indian RandD team of Enthone (now part of MacDermid) developing electroplating technologies for precious metals.) "Humans versus viruses - Can we avoid extinction in near future?" News Medical Life Sciences, 4/19/21, https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/Humans-versus-viruses-Can-we-avoid-extinction-in-near-future.aspx~~ RM Expert argues that human-caused changes to the environment can lead to the emergence
AND
the consequences may be and the next pandemic could lead us to extinction.
1AC – Debris
Advantage 2 is Debris
Asteroid mining spikes the risk of satellite-dust collisions
Commercial rocket launches produce space clutter—increased debris could reach a tipping point. AND private companies are impossible to control – only space decolonization solves
Thompson 20 ~(Clive, author of Coders: The Making of a New Tribe and the Remaking of the World, a columnist for Wired magazine, and a contributing writer to The New York Times Magazine) "Monetizing the Final Frontier The strange new push for space privatization," December 3, 2020 https://newrepublic.com/article/160303/monetizing-final-frontier~~ TDI "Physics tells us that two things can’t occupy the same space at the same
AND
as how a Mars colony might exist without becoming a human rights nightmare.
Private space companies vastly outpace the public sector and avoid regulation which makes it a uniquely dangerous industry
Seminar focuses on possible legal frameworks for governing commercial activity in outer space.
Space dust wrecks satellites and debris exponentially spirals
Intagliata 17 ~~~(Christopher Intagliata, MA Journalism from NYU, Editor for NPRs All Things Considered, Reporter/Host for Scientific American’s 60 Second Science) "The Sneaky Danger of Space Dust," Scientific American, May 11, 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-sneaky-danger-of-space-dust/~~~~~~ TDI When tiny particles of space debris slam into satellites, the collision could cause the emission of hardware-frying radiation, Christopher Intagliata reports. Aside from all the satellites, and the space station orbiting the Earth, there's a lot of trash circling the planet, too. Twenty-one thousand baseball-sized chunks of debris, according to NASA. But that number's dwarfed by the number of small particles. There's hundreds of millions of those. "And those smaller particles tend to be going fast. Think of picking up a grain of sand at the beach, and that would be on the large side. But they're going 60 kilometers per second." Sigrid Close, an applied physicist and astronautical engineer at Stanford University. Close says that whereas mechanical damage—like punctures—is the worry with the bigger chunks, the dust-sized stuff might leave more insidious, invisible marks on satellites—by causing electrical damage. "We also think this phenomenon can be attributed to some of the failures and anomalies we see on orbit, that right now are basically tagged as 'unknown cause.'" Close and her colleague Alex Fletcher modeled this phenomenon mathematically, based on plasma physics behavior. And here's what they think happens. First, the dust slams into the spacecraft. Incredibly fast. It vaporizes and ionizes a bit of the ship—and itself. Which generates a cloud of ions and electrons, traveling at different speeds. And then: "It's like a spring action, the electrons are pulled back to the ions, ions are being pushed ahead a little bit. And then the electrons overshoot the ions, so they oscillate, and then they go back out again." That movement of electrons creates a pulse of electromagnetic radiation, which Close says could be the culprit for some of that electrical damage to satellites. The study is in the journal Physics of Plasmas. ~~~Alex C. Fletcher and Sigrid Close, Particle-in-cell simulations of an RF emission mechanism associated with hypervelocity impact plasmas~~~
Early warning satellites going dark signals attacks – causes miscalc and goes nuclear
Orwig 16 ~~~(Jessica, MS in science and tech journalism from Texas AandM, BS in astronomy and physics from Ohio State) "Russia says a growing problem in space could be enough to spark a war," Insider,’ January 26, 2016, https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-says-space-junk-could-spark-war-2016-1~~~~~~ TDI NASA has already warned that the large amount of space junk around our planet is growing beyond our control, but now a team of Russian scientists has cited another potentially unforeseen consequence of that debris: War. Scientists estimate that anywhere from 500,000 to 600,000 pieces of human-made space debris between 0.4 and 4 inches in size are currently orbiting the Earth and traveling at speeds over 17,000 miles per hour. If one of those pieces smashed into a military satellite it "may provoke political or even armed conflict between space-faring nations," Vitaly Adushkin, a researcher for the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, reported in a paper set to be published in the peer-reviewed journal Acta Astronautica, which is sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics. Say, for example, that a satellite was destroyed or significantly damaged in orbit — something that a 4-inch hunk of space junk could easily do traveling at speeds of 17,500 miles per hour, Adushkin reported. (Even smaller pieces no bigger than size of a pea could cause enough damage to the satellite that it would no longer operate correctly, he notes.) It would be difficult for anyone to determine whether the event was accidental or deliberate. This lack of immediate proof could lead to false accusations, heated arguments and, eventually, war, according to Adushkin and his colleagues. A politically dangerous dilemma In the report, the Adushkin said that there have already been repeated "sudden failures" of military spacecraft in the last two decades that cannot be explained. "So, there are two possible explanations," he wrote. The first is "unregistered collisions with space objects." The second is "machinations" ~~~deliberate action~~~ of the space adversary. "This is a politically dangerous dilemma," he added. But these mysterious failures in the past aren't what concerns Adushkin most. It's a future threat of what experts call the cascade effect that has Adushkin and other scientists around the world extremely concerned. The Kessler Syndrome In 1978, American astrophysicist Donald Kessler predicted that the amount of space debris around Earth would begin to grow exponentially after the turn of the millennium. Kessler 's predictions rely on the fact that over time, space junk accumulates. We leave most of our defunct satellites in space, and when meteors and other man-made space debris slam into them, you get a cascade of debris. The cascade effect — also known as the Kessler Syndrome — refers to a critical point wherein the density of space junk grows so large that a single collision could set off a domino effect of increasingly more collisions. For Kessler, this is a problem because it would "create small debris faster than it can be removed," Kessler said last year. And this cloud of junk could eventually make missions to space too dangerous. For Adushkin, this would exacerbate the issue of identifying what, or who, could be behind broken satellites. The future So far, the US and Russian Space Surveillance Systems have catalogued 170,000 pieces of large space debris (between 4 and 8 inches wide) and are currently tracking them to prevent anymore dilemmas like the ones Adushkin and his colleagues cite in their paper. But it's not just the large objects that concern Adushkin, who reported that even small objects (less than 1/3 of an inch) could damage satellites to the point they can't function properly. Using mathematical models, Adushkin and his colleagues calculated what the situtation will be like in 200 years if we continue to leave satellites in space and make no effort to clean up the mess. They estimate we'll have: 1.5 times more fragments greater than 8 inches across 3.2 times more fragments between 4 and 8 inches across 13-20 times more smaller-sized fragments less than 4 inches across "The number of small-size, non-catalogued objects will grow exponentially in mutual collisions," the researchers reported.
Nuke war causes extinction – it won’t stay limited
Edwards 17 ~~~(Paul N. Edwards, CISAC’s William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Being interviewed by EarthSky/card is only parts of the interview directly from Paul Edwards.) "How nuclear war would affect Earth’s climate," EarthSky, September 8, 2017, earthsky.org/human-world/how-nuclear-war-would-affect-earths-climate~~~ TDI We are not talking enough about the climatic effects of nuclear war. The "nuclear winter" theory of the mid-1980s played a significant role in the arms reductions of that period. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reduction of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, this aspect of nuclear war has faded from view. That’s not good. In the mid-2000s, climate scientists such as Alan Robock (Rutgers) took another look at nuclear winter theory. This time around, they used much-improved and much more detailed climate models than those available 20 years earlier. They also tested the potential effects of smaller nuclear exchanges. The result: an exchange involving just 50 nuclear weapons — the kind of thing we might see in an India-Pakistan war, for example — could loft 5 billion kilograms of smoke, soot and dust high into the stratosphere. That’s enough to cool the entire planet by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.25 degrees Celsius) — about where we were during the Little Ice Age of the 17th century. Growing seasons could be shortened enough to create really significant food shortages. So the climatic effects of even a relatively small nuclear war would be planet-wide. What about a larger-scale conflict? A U.S.-Russia war currently seems unlikely, but if it were to occur, hundreds or even thousands of nuclear weapons might be launched. The climatic consequences would be catastrophic: global average temperatures would drop as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius) for up to several years — temperatures last seen during the great ice ages. Meanwhile, smoke and dust circulating in the stratosphere would darken the atmosphere enough to inhibit photosynthesis, causing disastrous crop failures, widespread famine and massive ecological disruption. The effect would be similar to that of the giant meteor believed to be responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs. This time, we would be the dinosaurs. Many people are concerned about North Korea’s advancing missile capabilities. Is nuclear war likely in your opinion? At this writing, I think we are closer to a nuclear war than we have been since the early 1960s. In the North Korea case, both Kim Jong-un and President Trump are bullies inclined to escalate confrontations. President Trump lacks impulse control, and there are precious few checks on his ability to initiate a nuclear strike. We have to hope that our generals, both inside and outside the White House, can rein him in. North Korea would most certainly "lose" a nuclear war with the United States. But many millions would die, including hundreds of thousands of Americans currently living in South Korea and Japan (probable North Korean targets). Such vast damage would be wrought in Korea, Japan and Pacific island territories (such as Guam) that any "victory" wouldn’t deserve the name. Not only would that region be left with horrible suffering amongst the survivors; it would also immediately face famine and rampant disease. Radioactive fallout from such a war would spread around the world, including to the U.S. It has been more than 70 years since the last time a nuclear bomb was used in warfare. What would be the effects on the environment and on human health today? To my knowledge, most of the changes in nuclear weapons technology since the 1950s have focused on making them smaller and lighter, and making delivery systems more accurate, rather than on changing their effects on the environment or on human health. So-called "battlefield" weapons with lower explosive yields are part of some arsenals now — but it’s quite unlikely that any exchange between two nuclear powers would stay limited to these smaller, less destructive bombs.
Satellite internet constellations accelerate collision risks – more close encounters and less transparency means bad decisions are inevitable.
Pultarova 21 "SpaceX Starlink satellites responsible for over half of close encounters in orbit, scientist says" Tereza Pultarova ~Master's in Science from the International Space University, France, to her Bachelor's in Journalism and Master's in Cultural Anthropology from Prague's Charles University. She worked as a reporter at the Engineering and Technology magazine, freelanced for a range of publications including Live Science, Space.com, Professional Engineering, Via Satellite and Space News and served as a maternity cover science editor at the European Space Agency.~, August 18, 2021 https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellite-collision-alerts-on-the-rise SM SpaceX Starlink satellites responsible for over half of close encounters in orbit, scientist says Starlink satellites might soon be involved in 90 of close encounters between two spacecraft in low Earth orbit. Operators of satellite constellations are constantly forced to move their satellites because of encounters with other spacecraft and pieces of space junk. And, thanks to SpaceX's Starlink satellites, the number of such dangerous approaches will continue to grow, according to estimates based on available data. SpaceX's Starlink satellites alone are involved in about 1,600 close encounters between two spacecraft every week, that's about 50 of all such incidents, according to Hugh Lewis, the head of the Astronautics Research Group at the University of Southampton, U.K. These encounters include situations when two spacecraft pass within a distance of 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) from each other. Lewis, Europe's leading expert on space debris, makes regular estimates of the situation in orbit based on data from the Socrates (Satellite Orbital Conjunction Reports Assessing Threatening Encounters in Space ) database. This tool, managed by Celestrack, provides information about satellite orbits and models their trajectories into the future to assess collision risk. Lewis publishes regular updates on Twitter and has seen a worrying trend in the data that reflects the fast deployment of the Starlink constellation. "I have looked at the data going back to May 2019 when Starlink was first launched to understand the burden of these megaconstellations," Lewis told Space.com. "Since then, the number of encounters picked up by the Socrates database has more than doubled and now we are in a situation where Starlink accounts for half of all encounters." The current 1,600 close passes include those between two Starlink satellites. Excluding these encounters, Starlink satellites approach other operators’ spacecraft 500 times every week. In comparison, Starlink's competitor OneWeb, currently flying over 250 satellites, is involved in 80 close passes with other operators' satellites every week, according to Lewis' data. And the situation is bound to get worse. Only 1,700 satellites of an expected constellation of tens of thousands have been placed into orbit so far. Once SpaceX launches all 12,000 satellites of its first generation constellation, Starlink satellites of all close approaches, Lewis’ calculations suggest.will be involved in 90
A graph showing the number of close encounters between Starlink satellites and spacecraft of other operators plotted by Professor Hugh Lewis based on data from the Socrates database.A graph showing the number of close encounters between Starlink satellites and spacecraft of other operators plotted by Professor Hugh Lewis based on data from the Socrates database. (Image credit: Hugh Lewis) The risk of collision Siemak Hesar, CEO and co-founder of Boulder, Colorado, based Kayhan Space, confirms the trend. His company, which develops a commercial autonomous space traffic management system, estimates that on average, an operator managing about 50 satellites will receive up to 300 official conjunction alerts a week. These alerts include encounters with other satellites as well as pieces of debris. Out of these 300 alerts, up to ten might require operators to perform avoidance maneuvers, Hesar told Space.com. Kayhan Space bases their estimates on data provided by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. This network of radars and telescopes, managed by the U.S. Space Force, closely monitors about 30,000 live and defunct satellites and pieces of debris down to the size of 4 inches (10 centimeters) and provides the most accurate location data of the orbiting objects. The size of this catalog is expected to increase ten times in the near future, Hesar added, partly due to the growth of megaconstellations, such as Starlink, and partly as sensors improve and enable detection of even smaller objects. The more objects in the catalog mean more dangerously close encounters. "This problem is really getting out of control," Hesar said. "The processes that are currently in place are very manual, not scalable, and there is not enough information sharing between parties that might be affected if a collision happens." Hesar compared the problem to driving on a highway and not knowing that there has been an accident a few miles ahead of you. If two spacecraft collide in orbit, the cloud of debris the crash generates would threaten other satellites travelling through the same area. "You want to have that situational awareness for the other actors that are flying in the neighbourhood," Hesar said. Bad decisions Despite the concerns, only three confirmed orbital collisions have happened so far. Earlier this week, astrophysicist and satellite tracker Jonathan McDowell, who's based at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, found evidence in Space-Track data that the Chinese meteorological satellite Yunhai 1-02, which disintegrated in March this year, was actually hit by a piece of space debris. The worst known space collision in history took place in February 2009 when the U.S. telecommunication satellite Iridium 33 and Russia's defunct military satellite Kosmos-2251 crashed at the altitude of 490 miles (789 kilometres). The incident spawned over 1,000 pieces of debris larger than 4 inches (10 cm). Many of these fragments were then involved in further orbital incidents. Lewis is concerned that with the number of close passes growing, the risk of operators at some point making a wrong decision will grow as well. Avoidance maneuvers cost fuel, time and effort. Operators, therefore, always carefully evaluate such risks. A decision not to make an avoidance maneuver following an alert, such as that made by Iridium in 2009, could, however, clutter the orbital environment for years and decades. "In a situation when you are receiving alerts on a daily basis, you can't maneuver for everything," Lewis said. "The maneuvers use propellant, the satellite cannot provide service. So there must be some threshold. But that means you are accepting a certain amount of risk. The problem is that at some point, you are likely to make a wrong decision." Hesar said that uncertainties in the positions of satellites and pieces of debris are still considerable. In case of operational satellites, the error could be up to 330 feet (100 meters) large. When it comes to a piece of debris, the uncertainty about its exact position might be in the order of a mile or more. "This object can be anywhere in this bubble of multiple kilometres," Hesar said. "At this point, and for the foreseeable future, avoidance is our best recourse. People that say 'I'm going to take the risk', in my humble opinion, that's an irresponsible thing to do." Starlink monopoly Lewis is concerned about the growing influence of a single actor — Starlink — on the safety of orbital operations. Especially, he says, as the spaceflight company has entered the satellite operations world only recently. "We place trust in a single company, to do the right thing," Lewis said. "We are in a situation where most of the maneuvers we see will involve Starlink. They were a launch provider before, now they are the world's biggest satellite operator, but they have only been doing that for two years so there is a certain amount of inexperience." SpaceX relies on an autonomous collision avoidance system to keep its fleet away from other spacecraft. That, however, could sometimes introduce further problems. The automatic orbital adjustments change the forecasted trajectory and therefore make collision predictions more complicated, according to Lewis. "Starlink doesn't publicize all the maneuvers that they're making, but it is believed that they are making a lot of small corrections and adjustments all the time," Lewis said. "But that causes problems for everybody else because no one knows where the satellite is going to be and what it is going to do in the next few days."
LEO collisions due to constellations take out ISR and other military assets – debris cascades into different altitudes and triggers Kessler Syndrome.
Wong 19 "Congested Outer Space: Increased Deployment of Small Satellite Constellations Could Hamper Military Space Operations" 2019 Arthur Wong ~Strategic Development of Forces Division, SHAPE. Prior to working at SHAPE he has worked at NATO HQ, within the Defence Investment Division on interoperability for NATO’s multinational battlegroups.~ https://www.japcc.org/congested-outer-space/ SM Since the production of a large number of small satellites in a factory environment will lower the cost of the overall programme, companies such as SpaceX, Amazon and OneWeb have been creating a satellite constellation within the LEO and Medium Earth Orbit (MEO).8, 9 OneWeb is a new company which plans to create an initial constellation of 648 satellites to provide global satellite internet broadband services. Each satellite weighs approximately 150 kg and will be programmed to operate in 20 different orbital planes at an altitude of 1,200 km.10 Creating a large constellation within the LEO could mitigate transmission delays and latency due to their closer range to ground stations while allowing users to send and receive data in a timely manner. The first six of the 648 satellites were launched in early 2019 with more launches scheduled to occur throughout this year. Both SpaceX and Amazon have also announced their intention of creating a separate constellation for internet communication systems. SpaceX satellite constellations, named Starlink, will be the largest constellation ever built when it is completed. The constellations consist of nearly 12,000 satellites in more than 20 different orbital planes.11 The altitude of Starlink will range between 550 km to 1,150 km. SpaceX aims to have a minimum of 2,200 satellites in the next five years and achieve initial commercial operation by 2020.12 Amazon’s version of constellation, named Kuiper, has also been seeking approval from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to launch more than 3,200 satellites between 590 km to 630 km in the LEO.13 Space Debris Threat Increases in the LEO The usage of cube satellite has provided positive impacts in various fields, ranging from environmental studies to offering worldwide internet access in rural areas through communication constellations. However, the current space environment is becoming congested. Hundreds of satellites have already been scheduled to launch each year before the construction of the constellation programme by OneWeb, SpaceX and Amazon. To further worsen the space debris situation in the LEO, direct-ascent Anti-Satellite Testing (ASAT) was conducted in recent years and more debris will be created through such testing. During the Chinese ASAT in 2007, some debris from the collision was blasted outward away from the Earth, causing a potential threat to satellites above the altitude where the ASAT testing occurred.14 Nine years after the incident happened, there are still more than 3,000 traceable pieces in orbit. In 2009, two satellites collided at a speed of 10 km/s at an altitude of 800 km. This was the first time a collision had happened between two satellites. The incident created more than 1,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 cm. Such activity could initiate a chain reaction, creating more collisions from the initial impact. This phenomenon is known as the Kessler Syndrome.15 From early 2019, there were approximately 34,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 cm (similar to the size of a cube satellite) and more than 900,000 pieces of debris ranging from one cm to 10 cm in size. Objects that are smaller than one cm in size are expected to be more than 100 million within the LEO.16 Despite the small size of the space debris, they are travelling at a speed of more than seven km/s. At this speed, tiny objects could harm any large satellite orbiting in the LEO. While satellites can increase their physical hardening to protect the on-board instruments from impact, some satellites cannot be hardened due to the size and dimensional constraints. Furthermore, hardened materials would also increase the overall cost of the satellite. Constellation in the Making Could Impact Space-Based Military Assets The previous examples revealed the congestion of the LEO. With companies continuing to launch thousands of small satellites, the chances of a collision in space will continue to increase. This will hinder space-based Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) support to provide valuable information to military operations. A majority of the ISR assets are orbiting in the LEO. NATO relies on space-based assets to assist its operations. Increasing the number of spacecraft in the LEO could raise problems and threats to military assets as well as access to space assets to support operations. If the orbital path of these smaller objects were not tracked by the Space Operation Centre regularly, larger satellites or manned-space stations could be penetrated by the non-propulsion satellites, making them a potential kinetic kill vehicle. Most satellites within the 600 km region of the LEO are affected by the atmospheric drag, which is helping to bring down some of the obsolete satellites. However, satellites orbiting above 800 km are less likely to be affected by the atmospheric drag, making cube satellites or small satellites without propulsion systems difficult to deorbit once they have reached the EOL.17, 18 The altitude for some of the OneWeb, Starlink and Kuiper constellations is planned to be above the atmospheric drag region. Despite this, Starlink satellites will have propulsion system for orbital manoeuvre and EOL deorbiting, tracking the full constellation with 12,000 satellites could be challenging for the company and the Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC).19 Additionally, there is the possibility of losing contact with satellites before they reach their EOL. Envisat, an 8,210 kg satellite that is currently drifting at an altitude of 785 km, poses a collision threat with other satellites. Envisat was expected to decommission in 2014 but the European Space Agency (ESA) lost contact with the satellite in 2012.20 If no interaction will be made with the Envisat, it is expected to stay in orbit for the next 150 years.21
Collisions with early warning satellites causes miscalc and goes nuclear – magnified by the Kessler effect
Blatt 20 ~Talia, joint concentration in Social Studies and Integrative Biology at Harvard, specialization in East Asian geopolitics and security issues~ "Anti-Satellite Weapons and the Emerging Space Arms Race," Harvard International Review, May 26, 2020, https://hir.harvard.edu/anti-satellite-weapons-and-the-emerging-space-arms-race/ TG Despite their deterrent functions, ASATs are more likely to provoke or exacerbate conflicts than dampen them, especially given the risk they pose to early warning satellites. These satellites are a crucial element of US ballistic missile defense, capable of detecting missiles immediately after launch and tracking their paths. Suppose a US early warning satellite goes dark, or is shut down. Going dark could signal a glitch, but in a world in which other countries have ASATs, it could also signal the beginning of an attack. Without early warning satellites, the United States is much more susceptible to nuclear missiles. Given the strategy of counterforcing—targeting nuclear silos rather than populous cities to prevent a nuclear counterattack—the Americans might believe their nuclear weapons are imminently at risk. It could be twelve hours before the United States regains satellite function, which is too long to wait to put together a nuclear counterattack. The United States, therefore, might move to mobilize a nuclear attack against Russia or China over what might just be a piece of debris shutting off a satellite. Additionally, accidental warfare, or strategic miscalculation, is uniquely likely in space. It is much easier to hold an adversary’s space systems in jeopardy with destructive ASATs than it is to sustainably defend a system, which is expensive and in some cases not technologically feasible because of limitations on satellite movement. Space is therefore considered offense-dominant; offensive tactics like weapons development are prioritized over defensive measures, such as improving GPS or making satellites more resistant to jamming. As a result, countries are left with poorly defended space systems and rely on offensive posturing, which increases the risk that their actions are perceived as aggressive and incentivizes rapid, risky counterattacks because militaries cannot rely on their spaced-based systems after first strikes. There are several hotspots in which ASATs and offensive-dominant systems are particularly relevant. Early warning satellites play a central role in US readiness in the event of a conflict involving North Korea. News of North Korean missile launches comes from these satellites. Given North Korea’s history of nuclear provocations, unflinchingly hostile rhetoric towards the United States and South Korea, and diplomatic opacity, North Korea is always a threatening, unknowable adversary, but recent developments have magnified the risk. With the health of Kim Jong-un potentially in jeopardy, a succession battle or even civil war on the peninsula raises the chances of loose nukes. If the regime is terminal, traditional MAD risk calculus will become moot; with nothing to lose, North Korea would have no reason to hold back its nuclear arsenal. Or China might decide to seize military assets and infrastructure of the regime. If the US does not have its early warning satellites because they have been taken out in an ASAT attack, the US, South Korea, and Japan are all in imminent nuclear peril, while China could be in a position to fundamentally reshape East Asian geopolitics. The South China Sea is another hotspot in which ASATs could risk escalation. China is developing Anti-Access Area Denial (A2/AD) in the South China Sea, a combination of long range radar with air and maritime defense meant to deny US freedom of navigation in the region. Given the disputed nature of territory in the South China Sea, the United States and its allies do not want China to successfully close off the region.
Independently causes cyberwar and satellite hacking which escalates.
Falco 19 "Opinion: Our satellites are prime targets for a cyberattack. And things could get worse." Gregory Falco ~Gregory Falco is a cyber research fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center and a postdoctoral security researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. He is the founder and chief executive of NeuroMesh, a tech security company.~ May 7, 2019 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/our-satellites-are-prime-targets-for-a-cyberattack-and-things-could-get-worse/2019/05/07/31c85438-7041-11e9-8be0-ca575670e91c'story.html SM One minute. That’s how long it took me last month to demonstrate to a major broadcasting company and production team how to access and restart a leading satellite Internet provider’s control system. Five minutes is how long it took me to demonstrate how to gain full control of it. Hackers are always improving their ability to break into our digital infrastructure. Yet the computer systems running our satellites haven’t kept up, making them prime targets for an attack. This makes our space assets a massive vulnerability — and it could get much worse if we’re not careful. This past weekend, SpaceX won approval from the Federal Communications Commission to increase the number of low-flying satellites as part of its Starlink project so that they can provide faster Internet access to the world. Unfortunately, access will be faster for both legitimate users and hackers alike. The FCC does not require applicants to publicly demonstrate how they will secure these satellites or the Internet they plan to provide. SpaceX, like other private space companies, has shared virtually no information about its cybersecurity efforts or plans. This is extremely disconcerting, considering the potential ramifications of a satellite being hacked. The most mundane outcome is that the satellite will no longer function, but the other extreme is for an attacker to break into a satellite and take over any thrusters (which SpaceX has insisted its satellites will have) and then propel the satellite into critical infrastructure and military satellites in other orbits. In other words, attackers could possibly use the hacked satellite as a kinetic weapon. There has long been a void of attention to securing space infrastructure, ranging from space-faring rovers to satellite ground-control systems that manage all the space-based assets. Virtually no policy or oversight agency exists concerning securing space assets — something I’ve discussed with government leadership to little avail. While the FCC regulates communications, it should not necessarily be responsible for all things space security. Perhaps the new Space Development Agency could be. This leaves space security in the hands of the private sector, which is exploiting the recent ease of access to space. The advent of small satellites known as CubeSats offers the chance to launch a satellite into orbit for as little as $30,000 . And because the government wants to encourage economic activity in this area, requirements to do so are extremely light. This leaves those who are creating the satellites responsible for the cybersecurity of their assets, which is not usually part of the rocket scientist’s traditional skill set. As a space cybersecurity researcher, I am excited about the renewed interest in space from both the commercial and exploratory perspectives. But we need to be strategic about the security of these space systems. Unlike "Internet of things" devices such as baby monitors, which we purchase for less than $100 and discard or sell once a new model comes out, satellites often remain in orbit for much longer and are less dispensable. So if we don’t consider the cybersecurity of the space asset now, we’ll likely be dealing with the ramifications of that for several years to come. The lack of government intervention in satellite security does not mean that we can ignore cybersecurity as an issue. Private space companies such as SpaceX, OneWeb and Blue Origin need to join the conversation about cybersecurity and help consumers understand that they are taking it seriously (if they are). (Blue Origin’s founder and owner, Jeff Bezos, also owns The Post.) Right now, there are several job openings for information security analysts at private space companies, indicating that they are likely hurting for talent and are behind in figuring out their security. This isn’t surprising given that space is hard, and traditional IT experts don’t have the right skill sets for a space cybersecurity job. Space systems have unique requirements that are more akin to an industrial control system, such as an energy smart meter, than to an email server. Private space companies need to start a dialogue with the security research community about their particular challenges so that we can help. They should also be transparent with the FCC that they need help in securing their infrastructure. The last thing we need is for China or Russia to take over SpaceX’s satellites and wreak havoc on our space assets.
Empirics prove it’s possible and likely by state and nonstate actors – especially true given private sector cost cutting.
Akoto 20 "Hackers could shut down satellites — or turn them into weapons" February 13, 2020 William Akoto ~a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Denver.~ https://www.upi.com/Top'News/Voices/2020/02/13/Hackers-could-shut-down-satellites-or-turn-them-into-weapons/4091581597502/ SM Feb. 13 (UPI) — Last month, SpaceX became the operator of the world's largest active satellite constellation. As of the end of January, the company had 242 satellites orbiting the planet with plans to launch 42,000 over the next decade. This is part of its ambitious project to provide Internet access across the globe. The race to put satellites in space is on, with Amazon, U.K.-based OneWeb and other companies chomping at the bit to place thousands of satellites in orbit in the coming months. These new satellites have the potential to revolutionize many aspects of everyday life — from bringing Internet access to remote corners of the globe to monitoring the environment and improving global navigation systems. Amid all the fanfare, a critical danger has flown under the radar: the lack of cybersecurity standards and regulations for commercial satellites, in the United States and internationally. As a scholar who studies cyber conflict, I'm keenly aware that this, coupled with satellites' complex supply chains and layers of stakeholders, leaves them highly vulnerable to cyberattacks. If hackers were to take control of these satellites, the consequences could be dire. On the mundane end of scale, hackers could simply shut down satellites, denying access to their services. Hackers could also jam or spoof the signals from satellites, creating havoc for critical infrastructure. This includes electric grids, water networks and transportation systems. Some of these new satellites have thrusters that allow them to speed up, slow down and change direction in space. If hackers took control of these steerable satellites, the consequences could be catastrophic. Hackers could alter the satellites' orbits and crash them into other satellites or even the International Space Station. Commodity parts Makers of these satellites, particularly small CubeSats, use off-the-shelf technology to keep costs low. The wide availability of these components means hackers can analyze them for vulnerabilities. In addition, many of the components draw on open-source technology. The danger here is that hackers could insert back doors and other vulnerabilities into satellites' software. The highly technical nature of these satellites also means multiple manufacturers are involved in building the various components. The process of getting these satellites into space is also complicated, involving multiple companies. Even once they are in space, the organizations that own the satellites often outsource their day-to-day management to other companies. With each additional vendor, the vulnerabilities increase as hackers have multiple opportunities to infiltrate the system. Hacking some of these CubeSats may be as simple as waiting for one of them to pass overhead and then sending malicious commands using specialized ground antennas. Hacking more sophisticated satellites might not be that hard either. Satellites are typically controlled from ground stations. These stations run computers with software vulnerabilities that can be exploited by hackers. If hackers were to infiltrate these computers, they could send malicious commands to the satellites. History of hacks This scenario played out in 1998 when hackers took control of the U.S.-German ROSAT X-Ray satellite. They did it by hacking into computers at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. The hackers then instructed the satellite to aim its solar panels directly at the sun. This effectively fried its batteries and rendered the satellite useless. The defunct satellite eventually crashed back to Earth in 2011. Hackers could also hold satellites for ransom, as happened in 1999 when hackers took control of the U.K.'s SkyNet satellites. Over the years, the threat of cyberattacks on satellites has gotten more dire. In 2008, hackers, possibly from China, reportedly took full control of two NASA satellites, one for about two minutes and the other for about nine minutes. In 2018, another group of Chinese state-backed hackers reportedly launched a sophisticated hacking campaign aimed at satellite operators and defense contractors. Iranian hacking groups have also attempted similar attacks. Although the U.S. Department of Defense and National Security Agency have made some efforts to address space cybersecurity, the pace has been slow. There are no cybersecurity standards for satellites and no governing body to regulate and ensure their cybersecurity. Even if common standards could be developed, there are no mechanisms in place to enforce them. This means responsibility for satellite cybersecurity falls to the individual companies that build and operate them. As they compete to be the dominant satellite operator, SpaceX and rival companies are under increasing pressure to cut costs. There is also pressure to speed up development and production. This makes it tempting for the companies to cut corners in areas like cybersecurity that are secondary to actually getting these satellites in space.
1AC – Advocacy
Thus, resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust.
Resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities in unjust.
AC – Inherency
cotPrivate space mining and ownership allowed now
Williams 20 ~(Matt Williams, Reporter) "Trump signs an executive order allowing mining the moon and asteroids," Phys Org, April 13, 2020, https://phys.org/news/2020-04-trump-moon-asteroids.html~~ TDI Trump signs an executive order allowing mining the moon and asteroids In 2015,
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debate that began with the signing of the Outer Space Treaty in 1967.
New investments coming and companies are launching – economic incentives make it alluring
deGrasse argues that the planet’s first trillionaire will undoubtedly be a space miner.
AC – Debris Advantage
Asteroid mining spikes the risk of satellite-dust collisions
Scoles 15 ~(Sarah Scoles, freelance science writer, contributor at Wired and Popular Science, author of the books Making Contact and They Are Already Here) "Dust from asteroid mining spells danger for satellites," New Scientist, May 27, 2015, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22630235-100-dust-from-asteroid-mining-spells-danger-for-satellites/~~ TDI Study this is citing – Javier Roa, Space Dynamic Group, Applied Physics Department
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30 per cent (arxiv.org/abs/1505.03800).
Space dust wrecks satellites and debris exponentially spirals
Intagliata 17 ~(Christopher Intagliata, MA Journalism from NYU, Editor for NPRs All Things Considered, Reporter/Host for Scientific American’s 60 Second Science) "The Sneaky Danger of Space Dust," Scientific American, May 11, 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-sneaky-danger-of-space-dust/~~ TDI When tiny particles of space debris slam into satellites, the collision could cause the emission of hardware-frying radiation, Christopher Intagliata reports. Aside from all the satellites, and the space station orbiting the Earth, there's a lot of trash circling the planet, too. Twenty-one thousand baseball-sized chunks of debris, according to NASA. But that number's dwarfed by the number of small particles. There's hundreds of millions of those. "And those smaller particles tend to be going fast. Think of picking up a grain of sand at the beach, and that would be on the large side. But they're going 60 kilometers per second." Sigrid Close, an applied physicist and astronautical engineer at Stanford University. Close says that whereas mechanical damage—like punctures—is the worry with the bigger chunks, the dust-sized stuff might leave more insidious, invisible marks on satellites—by causing electrical damage. "We also think this phenomenon can be attributed to some of the failures and anomalies we see on orbit, that right now are basically tagged as 'unknown cause.'" Close and her colleague Alex Fletcher modeled this phenomenon mathematically, based on plasma physics behavior. And here's what they think happens. First, the dust slams into the spacecraft. Incredibly fast. It vaporizes and ionizes a bit of the ship—and itself. Which generates a cloud of ions and electrons, traveling at different speeds. And then: "It's like a spring action, the electrons are pulled back to the ions, ions are being pushed ahead a little bit. And then the electrons overshoot the ions, so they oscillate, and then they go back out again." That movement of electrons creates a pulse of electromagnetic radiation, which Close says could be the culprit for some of that electrical damage to satellites. The study is in the journal Physics of Plasmas. ~Alex C. Fletcher and Sigrid Close, Particle-in-cell simulations of an RF emission mechanism associated with hypervelocity impact plasmas~
Scenario 1 is Climate
Earth observation satellites key to warming adaptation
Klein 14~(Naomi Klein, award-winning journalist, syndicated columnist, former Miliband Fellow at the London School of Economics, member of the board of directors of 350.org), This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate, pp. 12-14~ In a 2012 report, the World Bank laid out the gamble implied by that target. "As global warming approaches and exceeds 2-degrees Celsius, there is a risk of triggering nonlinear tipping elements. Examples include the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet leading to more rapid sea-level rise, or large-scale Amazon dieback drastically affecting ecosystems, rivers, agriculture, energy production, and livelihoods. This would further add to 21st-century global warming and impact entire continents." In other words, once we allow temperatures to climb past a certain point, where the mercury stops is not in our control.¶ But the bigger problem—and the reason Copenhagen caused such great despair—is that because governments did not agree to binding targets, they are free to pretty much ignore their commitments. Which is precisely what is happening. Indeed, emissions are rising so rapidly that unless something radical changes within our economic structure, 2 degrees now looks like a utopian dream. And it’s not just environmentalists who are raising the alarm. The World Bank also warned when it released its report that "we’re on track to a 4-C warmer world ~by century’s end~ marked by extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise." And the report cautioned that, "there is also no certainty that adaptation to a 4-C world is possible." Kevin Anderson, former director (now deputy director) of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, which has quickly established itself as one of the U.K’s premier climate research institutions, is even blunter; he says 4 degrees Celsius warming—7.2 degrees Fahrenheit—is "incompatible with an organized, equitable, and civilized global community."¶ We don’t know exactly what a 4 degree Celsius world would look like, but even the best-case scenario is likely to be calamitous. Four degrees of warming could raise global sea levels by 1 or possibly even 2 meters by 2100 (and would lock in at least a few additional meters over future centuries). This would drown some island nations such as the Maldives and Tuvalu, and inundate many coastal areas from Ecuador and Brazil to the Netherlands to much of California and the northeastern United States as well as huge swaths of South and Southeast Asia. Major cities likely in jeopardy include Boston, New York, greater Los Angeles, Vancouver, London, Mumbai, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.¶ Meanwhile, brutal heat waves that can kill tens of thousands of people, even in wealthy countries, would become entirely unremarkable summer events on every continent but Antarctica. The heat would also cause staple crops to suffer dramatic yield losses across the globe (it is possible that Indian wheat and U.S. could plummet by as much as 60 percent), this at a time when demand will be surging due to population growth and a growing demand for meat. And since crops will be facing not just heat stress but also extreme events such as wide-ranging droughts, flooding, or pest outbreaks, the losses could easily turn out to be more severe than the models have predicted. When you add ruinous hurricanes, raging wildfires, fisheries collapses, widespread disruptions to water supplies, extinctions, and globe-trotting diseases to the mix, it indeed becomes difficult to imagine that a peaceful, ordered society could be sustained (that is, where such a thing exists in the first place).¶ And keep in mind that these are the optimistic scenarios in which warming is more or less stabilized at 4 degrees Celsius and does not trigger tipping points beyond which runaway warming would occur. Based on the latest modeling, it is becoming safer to assume that 4 degrees could bring about a number of extremely dangerous feedback loops—an Arctic that is regularly ice-free in September, for instance, or, according to one recent study, global vegetation that is too saturated to act as a reliable "sink", leading to more carbon being emitted rather than stored. Once this happens, any hope of predicting impacts pretty much goes out the window. And this process may be starting sooner than anyone predicted. In May 2014, NASA and the University of California, Irvine scientists revealed that glacier melt in a section of West Antarctica roughly the size of France now "appears unstoppable." This likely spells down for the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, which according to lead study author Eric Rignot "comes with a sea level rise between three and five metres. Such an event will displace millions of people worldwide." The disintegration, however, could unfold over centuries and there is still time for emission reductions to slow down the process and prevent the worst. ¶ Much more frightening than any of this is the fact that plenty of mainstream analysts think that on our current emissions trajectory, we are headed for even more than 4 degrees of warming. In 2011, the usually staid International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a report predicting that we are actually on track for 6 degrees Celsius—10.8 degrees Fahrenheit—of warming. And as the IEA’s chief economist put it: "Everybody, even the school children, knows that this will have catastrophic implications for all of us." (The evidence indicates that 6 degrees of warming is likely to set in motion several major tipping points—not only slower ones such as the aforementioned breakdown of the West Antarctic ice sheet, but possibly more abrupt ones, like massive releases of methane from Arctic permafrost.) The accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers as also published a report warning businesses that we are headed for "4-C , or even 6-C" of warming.¶ These various projections are the equivalent of every alarm in your house going off simultaneously. And then every alarm on your street going off as well, one by one by one. They mean, quite simply, that climate change has become an existential crisis for the human species. The only historical precedent for a crisis of this depth and scale was the Cold War fear that we were headed toward nuclear holocaust, which would have made much of the planet uninhabitable. But that was (and remains) a threat; a slim possibility, should geopolitics spiral out of control. The vast majority of nuclear scientists never told us that we were almost certainly going to put our civilization in peril if we kept going about our daily lives as usual, doing exactly what we were already going, which is what climate scientists have been telling us for years. ¶ As the Ohio State University climatologist Lonnie G. Thompson, a world-renowned specialist on glacier melt, explained in 2010, "Climatologists, like other scientists, tend to be a stolid group. We are not given to theatrical rantings about falling skies. Most of us are far more comfortable in our laboratories or gathering data in the field than we are giving interviews to journalists or speaking before Congressional committees. When then are climatologists speaking out about the dangers of global warming? The answer is that virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and present danger to civilization."
Scenario 2 is Miscalc
Early warning satellites going dark signals attacks – causes miscalc and goes nuclear
Orwig 16 ~(Jessica, MS in science and tech journalism from Texas AandM, BS in astronomy and physics from Ohio State) "Russia says a growing problem in space could be enough to spark a war," Insider,’ January 26, 2016, https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-says-space-junk-could-spark-war-2016-1~~ TDI NASA has already warned that the large amount of space junk around our planet is growing beyond our control, but now a team of Russian scientists has cited another potentially unforeseen consequence of that debris: War. Scientists estimate that anywhere from 500,000 to 600,000 pieces of human-made space debris between 0.4 and 4 inches in size are currently orbiting the Earth and traveling at speeds over 17,000 miles per hour. If one of those pieces smashed into a military satellite it "may provoke political or even armed conflict between space-faring nations," Vitaly Adushkin, a researcher for the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, reported in a paper set to be published in the peer-reviewed journal Acta Astronautica, which is sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics. Say, for example, that a satellite was destroyed or significantly damaged in orbit — something that a 4-inch hunk of space junk could easily do traveling at speeds of 17,500 miles per hour, Adushkin reported. (Even smaller pieces no bigger than size of a pea could cause enough damage to the satellite that it would no longer operate correctly, he notes.) It would be difficult for anyone to determine whether the event was accidental or deliberate. This lack of immediate proof could lead to false accusations, heated arguments and, eventually, war, according to Adushkin and his colleagues. A politically dangerous dilemma In the report, the Adushkin said that there have already been repeated "sudden failures" of military spacecraft in the last two decades that cannot be explained. "So, there are two possible explanations," he wrote. The first is "unregistered collisions with space objects." The second is "machinations" ~deliberate action~ of the space adversary. "This is a politically dangerous dilemma," he added. But these mysterious failures in the past aren't what concerns Adushkin most. It's a future threat of what experts call the cascade effect that has Adushkin and other scientists around the world extremely concerned. The Kessler Syndrome In 1978, American astrophysicist Donald Kessler predicted that the amount of space debris around Earth would begin to grow exponentially after the turn of the millennium. Kessler 's predictions rely on the fact that over time, space junk accumulates. We leave most of our defunct satellites in space, and when meteors and other man-made space debris slam into them, you get a cascade of debris. The cascade effect — also known as the Kessler Syndrome — refers to a critical point wherein the density of space junk grows so large that a single collision could set off a domino effect of increasingly more collisions. For Kessler, this is a problem because it would "create small debris faster than it can be removed," Kessler said last year. And this cloud of junk could eventually make missions to space too dangerous. For Adushkin, this would exacerbate the issue of identifying what, or who, could be behind broken satellites. The future So far, the US and Russian Space Surveillance Systems have catalogued 170,000 pieces of large space debris (between 4 and 8 inches wide) and are currently tracking them to prevent anymore dilemmas like the ones Adushkin and his colleagues cite in their paper. But it's not just the large objects that concern Adushkin, who reported that even small objects (less than 1/3 of an inch) could damage satellites to the point they can't function properly. Using mathematical models, Adushkin and his colleagues calculated what the situtation will be like in 200 years if we continue to leave satellites in space and make no effort to clean up the mess. They estimate we'll have: 1.5 times more fragments greater than 8 inches across 3.2 times more fragments between 4 and 8 inches across 13-20 times more smaller-sized fragments less than 4 inches across "The number of small-size, non-catalogued objects will grow exponentially in mutual collisions," the researchers reported.
Nuke war could be existential – it won’t stay limited
Edwards 17 ~(Paul N. Edwards, CISAC’s William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Being interviewed by EarthSky/card is only parts of the interview directly from Paul Edwards.) "How nuclear war would affect Earth’s climate," EarthSky, September 8, 2017, earthsky.org/human-world/how-nuclear-war-would-affect-earths-climate~ TDI We are not talking enough about the climatic effects of nuclear war. The "nuclear winter" theory of the mid-1980s played a significant role in the arms reductions of that period. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reduction of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, this aspect of nuclear war has faded from view. That’s not good. In the mid-2000s, climate scientists such as Alan Robock (Rutgers) took another look at nuclear winter theory. This time around, they used much-improved and much more detailed climate models than those available 20 years earlier. They also tested the potential effects of smaller nuclear exchanges. The result: an exchange involving just 50 nuclear weapons — the kind of thing we might see in an India-Pakistan war, for example — could loft 5 billion kilograms of smoke, soot and dust high into the stratosphere. That’s enough to cool the entire planet by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.25 degrees Celsius) — about where we were during the Little Ice Age of the 17th century. Growing seasons could be shortened enough to create really significant food shortages. So the climatic effects of even a relatively small nuclear war would be planet-wide. What about a larger-scale conflict? A U.S.-Russia war currently seems unlikely, but if it were to occur, hundreds or even thousands of nuclear weapons might be launched. The climatic consequences would be catastrophic: global average temperatures would drop as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius) for up to several years — temperatures last seen during the great ice ages. Meanwhile, smoke and dust circulating in the stratosphere would darken the atmosphere enough to inhibit photosynthesis, causing disastrous crop failures, widespread famine and massive ecological disruption. The effect would be similar to that of the giant meteor believed to be responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs. This time, we would be the dinosaurs. Many people are concerned about North Korea’s advancing missile capabilities. Is nuclear war likely in your opinion? At this writing, I think we are closer to a nuclear war than we have been since the early 1960s. In the North Korea case, both Kim Jong-un and President Trump are bullies inclined to escalate confrontations. President Trump lacks impulse control, and there are precious few checks on his ability to initiate a nuclear strike. We have to hope that our generals, both inside and outside the White House, can rein him in. North Korea would most certainly "lose" a nuclear war with the United States. But many millions would die, including hundreds of thousands of Americans currently living in South Korea and Japan (probable North Korean targets). Such vast damage would be wrought in Korea, Japan and Pacific island territories (such as Guam) that any "victory" wouldn’t deserve the name. Not only would that region be left with horrible suffering amongst the survivors; it would also immediately face famine and rampant disease. Radioactive fallout from such a war would spread around the world, including to the U.S. It has been more than 70 years since the last time a nuclear bomb was used in warfare. What would be the effects on the environment and on human health today? To my knowledge, most of the changes in nuclear weapons technology since the 1950s have focused on making them smaller and lighter, and making delivery systems more accurate, rather than on changing their effects on the environment or on human health. So-called "battlefield" weapons with lower explosive yields are part of some arsenals now — but it’s quite unlikely that any exchange between two nuclear powers would stay limited to these smaller, less destructive bombs.
1/8/22
SEPTOCT - 1AC - Vaccine Imperialism
Tournament: Loyola | Round: 1 | Opponent: Immaculate Heart AW | Judge: Nathan Russell
1AC Round 1
1AC – Framing
Prioritize probability.
Kessler 08 (Oliver; April 2008; PhD in IR, professor of sociology at the University of Bielefeld, and professor of history and theory of IR at the Faculty of Arts; Alternatives, Vol. 33, "From Insecurity to Uncertainty: Risk and the Paradox of Security Politics" p. 211-232) The problem of the second method is that it is very difficult to "calculate
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prevail than in situations where security problems can be assessed with relative certainty.
Structural violence is the most important impact – ignoring them actively exacerbates exclusion
Winter and Leighton 99 |Deborah DuNann Winter and Dana C. Leighton. Winter|Psychologist that specializes in Social Psych, Counseling Psych, Historical and Contemporary Issues, Peace Psychology. Leighton: PhD graduate student in the Psychology Department at the University of Arkansas. Knowledgable in the fields of social psychology, peace psychology, and justice and intergroup responses to transgressions of justice "Peace, conflict, and violence: Peace psychology in the 21st century." Pg 4-5 Direct violence is horrific, but its brutality usually gets our attention: we notice
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a moral equivalent to war, in order to build lasting peace.
violates the interpretive ethos of critical international theory than does critical theory itself.
Center the debate on research strategies that minimize oppression
Medina 11 Medina, J. (2011). Toward a Foucaultian Epistemology of Resistance: Counter-Memory, Epistemic Friction, and Guerrilla Pluralism. Foucault Studies, 1(12), 9–35. The central goal of this paper is to show the emancipatory potential of the epistemological
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of those whose marginalized lives have become the silent scars of forgotten struggles.
Racism is the biggest impact – it makes all violence structurally inevitable and is the basis for all morality. Memmi 2k
Albert Memmi2k, Professor Emeritus of Sociology @ U of Paris, Naiteire, Racism, Translated by Steve Martinot, p. 163-165 The struggle against racism will be long, difficult, without intermission, without remission
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. True, it is a wager, but the stakes are irresistible.
Large scale extinction impacts are impossible to predict or simulate and will almost always be wrong – prefer impacts we know are happening
Matheson 15 (Calum Matheson – This is his PhD dissertation at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, "Desired Ground Zeros: Nuclear Imagination and the Death Drive", https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/indexablecontent/uuid:4bbcb13b-0b5f-43a1-884c-fcd6e6411fd6, pgs. 77 – 86,) Herman Kahn and Bernard Brodie, perhaps the most prominent American strategists of the early
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case simply: "People get emotionally involved in games" (20).
1AC – Advantage
The status quo ensures vaccine imperialism. Intellectual property law is the lynchpin of North-South health inequality and has empirically resulted in disparate life outcomes, accelerating disease spread.
at the expense of others continues to reproduce extreme inequality with human costs.
The TRIPS IP regime is at the heart of that imbalance. It creates a privileged class of elites with access to medicine and locks in data exclusivity and evergreening practices that delay the entrance of generic medicines into the market, which would decrease prices.
rising, making essential medicines inaccessible for millions of people around the world.
Vaccine imperialism inevitably commodifies medicine and results in vaccine nationalism that magnifies North-South health disparities.
Seklala et al 21 – Sharifah Sekalala, Warwick Law School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; Lisa Forman, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Timothy Hodgson, International Commission of Jurists, Johannesburg, South Africa,;Moses Mulumba, Center for Health, Human Rights and Development, Kampala, Uganda; Hadijah Namyalo-Ganafa, School of Law, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda; Benjamin Mason Meier, Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA ("Decolonising human rights: how intellectual property laws result in unequal access to the COVID-19 vaccine," 2021, pg. 2-4) julian The development and dissemination of COVID-19 vaccines has highlighted how the international legal
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, and thus consolidating a denial of their obligations to employ TRIPS flexibilities.
Status quo distribution results in disparities between nations. That results in colonial hierarchies of health.
Seklala et al 21 – Sharifah Sekalala, Warwick Law School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; Lisa Forman, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Timothy Hodgson, International Commission of Jurists, Johannesburg, South Africa,;Moses Mulumba, Center for Health, Human Rights and Development, Kampala, Uganda; Hadijah Namyalo-Ganafa, School of Law, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda; Benjamin Mason Meier, Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA ("Decolonising human rights: how intellectual property laws result in unequal access to the COVID-19 vaccine," 2021, pg. 4) julian The current global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is largely dictated by power disparities
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depleted health systems, are forced to divert additional funds to servicing debt.
It also results in inequalities within nations. Politicians create a hierarchy of access, which feeds racism, classism, and corruption.
Seklala et al 21 – Sharifah Sekalala, Warwick Law School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; Lisa Forman, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Timothy Hodgson, International Commission of Jurists, Johannesburg, South Africa; Moses Mulumba, Center for Health, Human Rights and Development, Kampala, Uganda; Hadijah Namyalo-Ganafa, School of Law, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda; Benjamin Mason Meier, Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA ("Decolonising human rights: how intellectual property laws result in unequal access to the COVID-19 vaccine," 2021, pg. 4-5) julian The high costs of vaccines also propagate inequalities within nations, as desperate countries try
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population from exercising their right to freedom of movement on an equal basis.
This means COVID and future pandemics will reproduce untenable working conditions and racialized and classed life outcomes.
Sell 20 – Susan K. Sell is a Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University. ("What COVID 19 Reveals About Twenty First Century Capitalism: Adversity and Opportunity," pg. 152-153) julian The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the lethal consequences of the sharp rise in
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death’ (McNamara and Newman 2020: 11; Sell and Williams 2019).
The plan reverse casually ensures the reduction of vaccine imperialism.
countries in the global south, but also produces asymmetries that perpetuate inequalities.
1AC – Plan
Plan: The member nations of the World Trade Organization ought to eliminate patent protections for medicines.
Adler 21 – Paul Adler is assistant professor of 20th Century U.S. in the World History at Colorado College and author of "No Globalization Without Representation: U.S. Activists and World Inequality," with University of Pennsylvania Press. ("Activism is the key to getting vaccines to the world," 4-23-2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/04/23/activism-is-key-getting-vaccines-world/) julian A major reason for the delay in rolling out vaccinations is that rules protecting intellectual
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international governance that serve the interests of the world’s most impoverished and marginalized.
Prioritize our impacts. Intellectual monopoly capitalism prioritizes profitability over health, which blurs the lines between life and death.
Sell 20 – Susan K. Sell is a Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University. ("What COVID 19 Reveals About Twenty First Century Capitalism: Adversity and Opportunity," pg. 151-152) julian In the late 1970s and early 1980s, US-based IP owners lobbied for
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as reflected in their request for TRIPs waivers in COVID-19 time.
Status quo medical innovation results in inequality, which the aff corrects.
Parthasarathy 20 – Shobita Parthasarathy is Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program at University of Michigan. ("Innovation Policy, Structural Inequality, and COVID-19," 2020, pg. 105-107) julian The private sector then capitalizes on the results of this scientific curiosity to develop socially
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civic duty as it determines pricing for this promising COVID-19 drug.
Flexibilities are insufficient.
Seklala et al 21 – Sharifah Sekalala, Warwick Law School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; Lisa Forman, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Timothy Hodgson, International Commission of Jurists, Johannesburg, South Africa,;Moses Mulumba, Center for Health, Human Rights and Development, Kampala, Uganda; Hadijah Namyalo-Ganafa, School of Law, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda; Benjamin Mason Meier, Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA ("Decolonising human rights: how intellectual property laws result in unequal access to the COVID-19 vaccine," 2021, pg. 4) julian Although countries from the Global South have the option of engaging TRIPS flexibilities in the
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Property Regime (IPR) system to sustain and deepen global health inequities.