Tournament: Colleyville | Round: 4 | Opponent: Dulles TY | Judge: Broussard, Austin
Cicero once said "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within."
Brands 18 ~Hal, Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments." American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump." Page 21-23~
Fifth and finally, sustaining America's post–Cold War strategy entails persuading the American
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a grand strategy that has delivered pretty good results for a quarter century.
Be highly skeptical of heg bad arguments – their evidence is epistemologically suspect and bought off by revisionist powers
Gilsinan 20 ~(Kathy, a St. Louis-based contributing writer at The Atlantic. Her book, The Helpers: Profiles From the Front Lines of the Pandemic, comes out in March 2022. She was previously an editor at World Politics Review.) "How China Is Planning to Win Back the World" The Atlantic, 5/28/2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/china-disinformation-propaganda-united-states-xi-jinping/612085/~~ BC
This was a bizarre salvo in China's propaganda war with the United States over the
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and that the reeling world may condemn it but still depends on it.
US leadership in this decade solves global war and results in a peaceful end to Chinese revisionism
Erickson and Collins 10/21 ~(Andrew, A professor of strategy in the U.S. Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute)(Gabriel, Baker Botts fellow in energy and environmental regulatory affairs at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy) "A Dangerous Decade of Chinese Power Is Here," Foreign Policy, 10/18/2021~ *brackets for ableist language
U.S. and allied policymakers are facing the most important foreign-policy challenge of the 21st century. China's power is peaking; so is the political position of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) domestic strength. In the long term, China's likely decline after this peak is a good thing. But right now, it creates a decade of danger from a system that increasingly realizes it only has a short time to fulfill some of its most critical, long-held goals.
Within the next five years, China's leaders are likely to
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can realistically achieve no later than the mid-to-late 2020s.
Beckley and Brands 12-17 — Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University and Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute
~Michael, and Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, "Competition With China Could Be Short and Sharp," Foreign Affairs, 12-17-20, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-12-17/competition-china-could-be-short-and-sharp, accessed 12-20-20~
In foreign policy circles, it has become conventional wisdom that the United States and
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needs to blunt a potential surge of Chinese aggression and expansion this decade.
Hal Brands, 5-1-2021, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor At The Johns Hopkins School Of Advanced International Studies, China's Creative Challenge—and the Threat to America, Commentary Magazine, https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/hal-brands/chinas-geopolitical-challenge-threat-to-america//Khan
FINALLY, CHINA is testing the patterns of history simply by taking on the United
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Chinese strategy in overcoming the great obstacles that litter Beijing's path to hegemony.
Overwhelming power is key — uncertainty alone emboldens revisionism and erodes alliances.
Brands and Edel, 19 — Hal Brands; PhD, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Charles Edel; PhD, Senior Fellow and Visiting Scholar at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. ("The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order;" Ch. 6: The Darkening Horizon; Published by Yale University Press; GrRv)
Concerns about American reliability are not new, of course, and too much U
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is happening. The effects are unlikely to be either trivial or benign.
Primacy and allied commitments solves arms races and great power war—-reject old defense that ignores emerging instability and compounding risk. Unipolarity is sustainable and stops power vacuums and escalation across the globe
Brands 18 ~Hal, Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments." American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump." Page 129-133~
Since World War II, the United States has had a military second to none
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Russian and Chinese modernization efforts are now creating a far more competitive environment.
A strong alliance network is an impact filter — solves great-power war, growth, and democracy.
Brands and Edel, 19 — Hal Brands; PhD, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Charles Edel; PhD, Senior Fellow and Visiting Scholar at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. ("The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order;" Ch. 7: Rediscovering Tragedy; Published by Yale University Press; GrRv)
What's true for America is equally true for its broader coalition of like-minded
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some burdens are tolerable because they help prevent something far, far worse.
Ted R. Bromund et. al 17—(Ted R. Bromund, Studies Anglo-American relations, U.S. relations with Europe and the EU, and the U.S.'s leadership role in the world, Reclaiming American Realism, American Affairs Journal, accessed 6-28-2019, https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2017/05/reclaiming-american-realism/)//ND
As Americans, we should know what it is to live in a tough,
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Asia), were a paper tiger and could be intimidated into eventual withdrawal.
Tepperman 21 – a former editor in chief of Foreign Policy and the author of The Fix: How Countries Use Crises to Solve the World's Worst Problems. (Jonathan, "Biden Was Right: America Is Back," Foreign Policy, 2-23-2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/23/biden-was-right-america-is-back/, Accessed 11-17-2021, LASA-SC)
President Joe Biden's declaration to the Munich Security Conference last Friday that "America is
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a critical sense. And that's something we should all be grateful for.
Beckley 15 (Michael Beckley is a research fellow in the International Security Program at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs., "The Myth of Entangling Alliances Michael Beckley Reassessing the Security Risks of U.S. Defense Pacts", http://live.belfercenter.org/files/IS3904_pp007-048.pdf)
The finding that U.S. entanglement is rare has important implications for international
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leaving it without partners to share the burden when those interventions go awry.
Lanoszka, 19 — Alexander Lanoszka, PhD, is an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo, has held fellowships at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Dartmouth College. ("Alliances and Nuclear Proliferation in the Trump Era;" The Washington Quarterly; 41:4; pg. 87-88; GrRv)
If treaty pledges are insufficient and threats of nuclear retaliation lack believability, then what
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Germany's nuclear intentions troubled U.S. decision makers for another decade.
Hayes 18 ~Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, California, USA; Center for International Security Studies, Sydney University. Trump and the Interregnum of American Nuclear Hegemony. November 8, 2018. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/25751654.2018.1532525~~
During a post-hegemonic era, long-standing nuclear alliances are likely to
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second time, less so, the third time, the new normal.
Kroenig 15 (Matthew, Associate Professor and International Relations Field Chair in the Department of Government and School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 2015. "The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have a Future?" Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 38, Issue 1-2, 2015)
The spread of nuclear weapons poses at least six severe threats to international peace and
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, any one of those crises could result in a catastrophic nuclear exchange.
Choi 18 ~Ji Young Choi, associate professor in the Department of Politics and Government and affiliated professor in the International Studies Program and East Asian Studies Program at Ohio Wesleyan University. "Historical and Theoretical Perspectives on the Rise of China: Long Cycles, Power Transitions, and China's Ascent"~
Another important aspect is that Beijing is beginning to voice its dissatisfaction with the existing
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can set mutually agreeable international rules on traditional security issues including territorial disputes.
Strong onshore naval power solves Middle Eastern failed states, ISIS rise, and the refugee crisis.
Abenheim et al., 19 — Donald Abenheim is an Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. Ryan Gingeras serves as an Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. James A. Russell is an Associate Professor in the Depatment of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. James J. Wirtz is the Dean of the School for International Graduate Studies at the Naval Postgraduate School. Thomas-Durell Young is the Program Manager for Europe, Center for Civil-Military Relations and Academic Associate for comparative defense planning curriculum, Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. Christopher Twomey serves as an Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. (March 25th, 2019; "American sea power in the contemporary security environment;" Comparative Strategy; 37:5; pg. 398-399; DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2018.1526566; GrRv)
Despite significant surges in deployment as a result of the 1991 and 2003 wars in
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part to the fear of immigration from the war-torn Middle East.
AND — key to nuclear deterrence, the economy, and overall readiness.
Abenheim et al., 19 — Donald Abenheim is an Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. Ryan Gingeras serves as an Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. James A. Russell is an Associate Professor in the Depatment of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. James J. Wirtz is the Dean of the School for International Graduate Studies at the Naval Postgraduate School. Thomas-Durell Young is the Program Manager for Europe, Center for Civil-Military Relations and Academic Associate for comparative defense planning curriculum, Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School. Christopher Twomey serves as an Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. (March 25th, 2019; "American sea power in the contemporary security environment;" Comparative Strategy; 37:5; pg. 394-395; DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2018.1526566; GrRv)
21st century maritime strategy and sea power
The end of the Cold War saw
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(ISIS) and its affiliates across the wider Middle East and Africa.
Removing presence makes terror worse by emboldening extremism and undermining security networks necessary for counter-insurgent strategy
Brands 18 ~Hal, Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments." American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump." Page 38-40~
Take the issue of terrorism. To be clear, offshore balancers are right that
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regarding counterterrorism: it offers some advantages but brings major liabilities as well.