1AC - Moon 1NC - K Case 1AR - All 2NR - All 2AR - All
Barkley Forum
3
Opponent: Immaculate Heart AW | Judge: Cale McCrary
1AC - Moon 1NC - T K PIC Case 1AR - Condo PICs Bad All 2NR - 1AR Shells T 2AR - T
Barkley Forum
5
Opponent: Strake Jesuit KS | Judge: Jeffrey Swift
1AC - Moon v3 1NC - DA DA CP Case 1AR - All 2NR - All 2AR - All
Blue Key
2
Opponent: FAU EI | Judge: Eshwar Mohan
1AC - China v1 1NC - NC AC 1AR 2NR 2AR - All
Blue Key
9
Opponent: Note | Judge: Note
Check Cites
Blue Key
Octas
Opponent: Lexington VM | Judge: Panel
1AC - India 1NC - Shell NC Util K Case 1AR - Shell Shell RVI 2NR - All 2AR - RVI
Blue Key RR
2
Opponent: Southlake Carroll EP | Judge: Panel
1AC - China 1NC - T T K 1AR - All 2NR - K 2AR - All
Blue Key RR
3
Opponent: American Heritage SS | Judge: Panel
1AC - China v2 1NC - Shell Skep Case 1AR - All 2NR - All 2AR - All
Blue Key RR
Semis
Opponent: Lexington VM | Judge: Panel
1AC - China v2 1NC - K 1AR 2NR 2AR All
Blue Key RR
Finals
Opponent: Lexington BF | Judge: Panel
1AC - China v1 1NC - DA T T DA Case 1AR - 2 Shells All 2NR - T Hedge Shells 2AR - T
Colleyville
1
Opponent: Memorial SC | Judge: Devin Hernandez
1AC - Dysfluency Baudy Debris Kant China Constellations 5G 1NC - Permiss affirms plans combo shell Quantum IR K Blobjectivism NC Guerilla Warfare spec Dissolution pic Camera Theory Disabled Prep time Must take adderall Must not wear masks Zombies NC Condo affs bad 1AR all 2NR prep time Quantum IR K 2AR All
Colleyville
5
Opponent: Southlake Carroll AA | Judge: David Dosch
1AC - Lunar Heritage 1NC - T DA DA Case 1AR - ALl 2NR - All 2AR - All
1AC - Evergreening 1NC - T NC Case 1AR - IVI All 2NR - UV 2AR - IVI
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Cites
Entry
Date
0 - Contact Information Notes
Tournament: Any | Round: 1 | Opponent: Any | Judge: Any Hey, my name is Siddhartha (Sid) I go by he/him. If my wiki is acting up or you want anything from my wiki that isn't here contact me!
My phone may recognize you as a scam caller so calling may not work but still try it and message me directly, email/message is preferred, facebook message is also good.
I disclose the aff 30 minutes before in prelims. If I don't, assume it is because of technical issues.
Plan: States should reduce appropriation of outer space by private entities that engage in anti-competitive business practices in accordance with the higher ethical principles of the outer space treaty.
Top of Form
Antitrust is uniquely compatible with the Outer Space Treaty, or OST—-the plan generates momentum for international harmonization.
Maria Lucas-Rhimbassen 21, Research Associate at the Chaire SIRIUS (Space Institute AND second stage), especially with regards to the commercialization of the space sector.
Exemptions collapse Rule of the Road – those are necessary to a thriving space industry.
Larsen 18, Paul B. "Minimum International Norms for Managing Space Traffic, Space Debris, and Near Earth Object Impacts." J. Air L. and Com. 83 (2018): 739. (taught air and space law for more than 40 years respectively at Southern Methodist University and at Georgetown University. He is co-author of Lyall and Larsen, Space Law a Treatise (2ne edition Routledge 2017) and of Larsen, Sweeney and Gillick, Aviation Law.)Miller D. NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS AS MODELS FOR MINIMUM SPACE NORMS Space industry operators AND government safety norms will help businesses prosper and allow space exploration to continue.
The Plan's grounding in OST principles harmonizes space governance and broader applications of noble anti-trust.
Rhimbassen 22 ~Maria Rhimbassen, Research Fellow with Open Lunar and PhD Candidate in Space Law at the University of Toulouse and CNES, 2-8-2022, accessed on 4-22-2022, Openlunar, "From Toxic to Noble Competition: Implementing A New Perspective of Antitrust in Outer Space based on Ethics and Beyond - Open Lunar Foundation" https://www.openlunar.org/library/from-toxic-to-noble-competition~~ Adam National legislation can also be approached with amendments proposals in terms of licensing requirements. AND model, and therefore this kind of feedback is critical for successful implementation.
1AC—-Adv—-Space Law
International space law isn't equipped for the privatization of space BUT US-led space antitrust checks its erosion AND allows for international harmonization
Maria Lucas-Rhimbassen 21, Research Associate at the Chaire SIRIUS (Space Institute for Researches on Innovative Usages of Satellites) at the University of Toulouse, J.D. from Moncton University, Certificate in Strategic Space Law from McGill University, PhD Candidate in Space Law at the University of Toulouse; Dr. Lucien Rapp, Affiliate Professor at the HEC Paris School of Law, Head of the SIRIUS at the University of Toulouse, "New Space Property Age: At the Crossroads of Space Commons, Commodities and Competition," August 2021, Journal of Property, Planning, and Environmental Law, Vol. 13, p. 100-101
Discussion Traditionally, international space law, as opposed to national space AND monitors the space commoditization closely, either space derivatives should be significantly regulated.
Space law erosion causes space wars.
Dr. Valentyn Halunko 19, Professor and President of the Research Institute of Public Law in Kyiv, Editor in Chief of the Scientific Law Journals "Advanced Space Law" and "Scientific Bulletin of Public and Private Law; Dr. Serhii Didenko, Associate Professor and Director of the Kherson Institute of Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, "Private International Space Law. Philosophical and Legal AND Earth, negative environmental consequences and legal conflicts, both interstate and private.
They go nuclear—-AND erode nuclear deterrence.
Dr. Robert Farley 22, Assistant Professor of Security and Diplomacy at the Patterson School at the University of Kentucky, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Washington, B.A. from the University of Oregon, "Does A Space War Mean A Nuclear War?," 1945, 1/9/2022, https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/does-a-space-war-mean-a-nuclear-war/ The recent Russian anti-satellite test didn't tell the world anything new, but AND warfighters to consider critical military infrastructure off-limits in any particular conflict.
Antitrust harmonization prevents extinction from resource depletion, human rights abuse, and war
Geoffrey A. Manne 13, Lecturer in Law at Lewis and Clark Law School, Executive Director of the International Center for Law and Economics, JD from the University of Chicago Law School, Former Olin Fellow at the University of Virginia School of Law, and Dr. Seth Weinberger, PhD and MA in Political Science from Duke University, MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University, AB from the University of Chicago, Associate Professor in the Department of Politics and Government at the University of Puget Sound, "International Signals: The Political Dimension of International Competition Law", The Antitrust Bulletin, Volume 57, Number 3, Last Revised 7/18/2013, p. 497-503 A. The international political environment At the root of international political theory is AND , perhaps most notably through the adoption of principled international antitrust standards.37
Private appropriation results in arbitrary valuation of businesses in the space industry and monopolization, which decks innovation and causes armed conflict. Sterns and Tennen 03
P.M. Sterns, L.I. Tennen, Privateering and profiteering on the moon and other celestial bodies: Debunking the myth of property rights in space, Advances in Space Research, Volume 31, Issue 11, 2003, Pages 2433-2440, ISSN 0273-1177, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0273-1177(03)00567-2. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117703005672) If claims of private appropriation are ineffective, in contravention of the corpus juris spatialis AND corpus juris spatialis has made in maintaining outer space exclusively for peaceful purposes.
Uniform rules of the road check Russian and Chinese ASATs—-otherwise, they crush space dominance, cause Taiwan war, AND deck cred among allies.
Dr. Brian G. Chow 20, Independent Policy Analyst, Spent 25 years as a Senior Physical Scientist Specializing in Space and National Security, Ph.D in Physics from Case Western University, MBA and Ph.D in Finance from the University of Michigan, "Space Traffic Management in the New Space Age," Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2020, p. 76-78 Modified for ableist language RPO - Rendezvous and proximity operations The Necessity for AND satellites, degrading or eliminating a critical service needed in peacetime and wartime.
Chinese ASAT attacks go nuclear.
Lee Billings 15, Editor at Scientific American covering space and physics, Citing Michael Krepon, an arms-control expert and co-founder of the Stimson Center, and James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, The Scientific American, August 10, 2015, "War in Space May Be Closer Than Ever", http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/war-in-space-may-be-closer-than-ever/ The world's most worrisome military flashpoint is arguably not in the Strait of Taiwan, AND 000 kilometers above Earth, approaching the safe haven of strategic geosynchronous satellites.
Taiwan conflict causes global nuke war.
Joseph Gerson 21, Executive Director of the Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security and Vice-President of the International Peace Bureau, "Taiwan: The Most Dangerous Flashpoint in the U.S.-China Cold War", Mass Peace Action, 7/19/2021, https://masspeaceaction.org/taiwan-the-most-dangerous-flashpoint-in-the-u-s-chinese-cold-war/ Preventing accidents or miscalculations (political as well as military) that could trigger armed AND political leader who makes a reckless statement could ignite a nuclear World War.
Universalizing principles under the OST creates rules of the road for sustainable space activities.
Rhimbassen 21, Maria, and Lucien Rapp. "Competitive space foresight: Incentivizing compliance through antitrust." Acta Astronautica 189 (2021): 235-240. (serves as a Research Associate at the Chaire SIRIUS and is also a PhD Candidate in space law since 2016)Miller The purpose of this paper is to address STM through an unconventional but pragmatic angle AND regulatory measures in outer space, notably in the STM sub-sector.
STM reverse causally solves Debris.
Larsen 18, Paul B. "Minimum International Norms for Managing Space Traffic, Space Debris, and Near Earth Object Impacts." J. Air L. and Com. 83 (2018): 739. (taught air and space law for more than 40 years respectively at Southern Methodist University and at Georgetown University. He is co-author of Lyall and Larsen, Space Law a Treatise (2ne edition Routledge 2017) and of Larsen, Sweeney and Gillick, Aviation Law.)Miller II. BENEFITS OF INTERNATIONAL NORMS A. PUBLIC SAFETY BENEFIT Commercial space operations are AND , some objects are so small that they cannot be safely tracked.61
Debris cascades—-nuke war.
Les Johnson 13, Deputy Manager for NASA's Advanced Concepts Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center, Co-Investigator for the JAXA T-Rex Space Tether Experiment and PI of NASA's ProSEDS Experiment, Master's Degree in Physics from Vanderbilt University, Popular Science Writer, and NASA Technologist, Frequent Contributor to the Journal of the British Interplanetary Sodety and Member of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, National Space Society, the World Future Society, and MENSA, Sky Alert!: When Satellites Fail, p. 9-12 ~language modified~ Whatever the initial cause, the result may be the same. A satellite destroyed AND , our military advantage over potential adversaries would be dramatically reduced or eliminated.
Extinction
PND 16. internally citing Zbigniew Brzezinski, Council of Foreign Relations and former national security adviser to President Carter, Toon and Robock's 2012 study on nuclear winter in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Gareth Evans' International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Report, Congressional EMP studies, studies on nuclear winter by Seth Baum of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Martin Hellman of Stanford University, and U.S. and Russian former Defense Secretaries and former heads of nuclear missile forces, brief submitted to the United Nations General Assembly, Open-Ended Working Group on nuclear risks. A/AC.286/NGO/13. 05-03-2016. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/OEWG/2016/Documents/NGO13.pdfRe-cut by Elmer Consequences human survival 12. Even if the 'other' side does NOT launch in response AND course the immediate post-nuclear results for Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well.
Currently, the Chinese space industry is set to surpass the US space industry
Patel in 2021 ~(Neel, space reporter for MIT Technology Review, and I also write The Airlock newsletter, your number one source for everything happening off this planet. Before joining, he worked as a freelance science and technology journalist, contributing stories to Popular Science, The Daily Beast, Slate, Wired, the Verge, and elsewhere. Prior to that, he was an associate editor for Inverse, where I grew and led the website's space coverage.) "China's surging private space industry is out to challenge the US" MIT Technology Review, 1/21/2021. https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/21/1016513/china-private-commercial-space-industry-dominance/~~ BC How did China get here—and why? Until recently, China's space activity has been overwhelmingly dominated by two state-owned enterprises: the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation Limited (CASIC) and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC). A few private space firms have been allowed to operate in the country for a while: for example, there's the China Great Wall Industry Corporation Limited (in reality a subsidiary of CASC), which has provided commercial launches since it was established in 1980. But for the most part, China's commercial space industry has been nonexistent. Satellites were expensive to build and launch, and they were too heavy and large for anything but the biggest rockets to actually deliver to orbit. The costs involved were too much for anything but national budgets to handle. That all changed this past decade as the costs of making satellites and launching rockets plunged. In 2014, a year after Xi Jinping took over as the new leader of China, the Chinese government decided to treat civil space development as a key area of innovation, as it had already begun doing with AI and solar power. It issued a policy directive called Document 60 that year to enable large private investment in companies interested in participating in the space industry. "Xi's goal was that if China has to become a critical player in technology, including in civil space and aerospace, it was critical to develop a space ecosystem that includes the private sector," says Namrata Goswami, a geopolitics expert based in Montgomery, Alabama, who's been studying China's space program for many years. "He was taking a cue from the American private sector to encourage innovation from a talent pool that extended beyond state-funded organizations." As a result, there are now 78 commercial space companies operating in China, according to a 2019 report by the Institute for Defense Analyses. More than half have been founded since 2014, and the vast majority focus on satellite manufacturing and launch services. For example, Galactic Energy, founded in February 2018, is building its Ceres rocket to offer rapid launch service for single payloads, while its Pallas rocket is being built to deploy entire constellations. Rival company i-Space, formed in 2016, became the first commercial Chinese company to make it to space with its Hyperbola-1 in July 2019. It wants to pursue reusable first-stage boosters that can land vertically, like those from SpaceX. So does LinkSpace (founded in 2014), although it also hopes to use rockets to deliver packages from one terrestrial location to another. Spacety, founded in 2016, wants to turn around customer orders to build and launch its small satellites in just six months. In December it launched a miniaturized version of a satellite that uses 2D radar images to build 3D reconstructions of terrestrial landscapes. Weeks later, it released the first images taken by the satellite, Hisea-1, featuring three-meter resolution. Spacety wants to launch a constellation of these satellites to offer high-quality imaging at low cost. To a large extent, China is following the same blueprint drawn up by the US: using government contracts and subsidies to give these companies a foot up. US firms like SpaceX benefited greatly from NASA contracts that paid out millions to build and test rockets and space vehicles for delivering cargo to the International Space Station. With that experience under its belt, SpaceX was able to attract more customers with greater confidence. Venture capital is another tried-and-true route. The IDA report estimates that VC funding for Chinese space companies was up to $516 million in 2018—far shy of the $2.2 billion American companies raised, but nothing to scoff at for an industry that really only began seven years ago. At least 42 companies had no known government funding. And much of the government support these companies do receive doesn't have a federal origin, but a provincial one. "~These companies~ are drawing high-tech development to these local communities," says Hines. "And in return, they're given more autonomy by the local government." While most have headquarters in Beijing, many keep facilities in Shenzhen, Chongqing, and other areas that might draw talent from local universities. There's also one advantage specific to China: manufacturing. "What is the best country to trust for manufacturing needs?" asks James Zheng, the CEO of Spacety's Luxembourg headquarters. "It's China. It's the manufacturing center of the world." Zheng believes the country is in a better position than any other to take advantage of the space industry's new need for mass production of satellites and rockets alike. A thriving private space industry is crucial in order for government sponsored operations in space to be economically feasible Patel 21 ~(Neel, space reporter for MIT Technology Review, and I also write The Airlock newsletter, your number one source for everything happening off this planet. Before joining, he worked as a freelance science and technology journalist, contributing stories to Popular Science, The Daily Beast, Slate, Wired, the Verge, and elsewhere. Prior to that, he was an associate editor for Inverse, where I grew and led the website's space coverage.) "China's surging private space industry is out to challenge the US" MIT Technology Review, 1/21/2021. https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/21/1016513/china-private-commercial-space-industry-dominance/~~ BC At first glance, the Ceres-1 launch might seem unremarkable. Ceres-1, however, wasn't built and launched by China's national program. It was a commercial rocket—only the second from a Chinese company ever to go into space. And the launch happened less than three years after the company was founded. The achievement is a milestone for China's fledgling—but rapidly growing—private space industry, an increasingly critical part of the country's quest to dethrone the US as the world's preeminent space power. The rivalry between the US and China, whose space program has surged over the last two decades, is what most people mean when they refer to the 21st-century's space race. China is set to build a new space station later this year and will likely attempt to send its taikonauts to the moon before the decade ends. But these big-picture projects represent just one aspect of the country's space ambitions. Increasingly, the focus is now on the commercial space industry as well. The nation's growing private space business is less focused on bringing prestige and glory to the nation and more concerned with reducing the cost of spaceflight, increasing its international influence—and making money. "The state is really great at large, ambitious projects like going to the moon or developing a large reconnaissance satellite," says Lincoln Hines, a Cornell University researcher who focuses on Chinese foreign policy. "But it's not responsive to meeting market needs"—one big way to encourage rapid technological growth and innovation. "I think the government thinks its commercial space sector can be complementary to the state," he says. What are the market needs that Hines is referring to? Satellites, and rockets that can launch them into orbit. The space industry is undergoing a renaissance thanks to two big trends spurred by the commercial industry: we can make satellites for less money by making them smaller and using off-the-shelf hardware; and we can also make rockets for less money, by using less costly materials or reusing boosters after they've already flown (which SpaceX pioneered with its Falcon 9). These trends mean it is now cheaper to send stuff into space, and the services and data that satellites can offer have come down in price accordingly. China has seen an opportunity. A 2017 report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that the space industry could be worth up to $2.7 trillion by 2030. Setting foot on the moon and establishing a lunar colony might be a statement of national power, but securing a share of such a highly lucrative business is perhaps even more important to the country's future. "In the future, there will be tens of thousands of satellites waiting to launch, which is a major opportunity for Galactic Energy" says Wu Yue, a company spokesperson. The problem is, China has to make up decades' worth of ground lost to the West.
If the Chinese space industry surpasses the U.S. space industry, they will proliferate extremely dangerous Anti-Satellite Weapons – only the affirmative can prevent this – China has a history of foregoing international commitments
Rajagopalan on May 12th ~(Dr Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan is the Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology (CSST) at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Dr Rajagopalan was the Technical Advisor to the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) (July 2018-July 2019). She was also a Non-Resident Indo-Pacific Fellow at the Perth USAsia Centre from April-December 2020. As a senior Asia defence writer for The Diplomat, she writes a weekly column on Asian strategic issues. Dr Rajagopalan joined ORF after a five-year stint at the National Security Council Secretariat (2003-2007), Government of India, where she was an Assistant Director. Prior to joining the NSCS, she was Research Officer at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. She was also a Visiting Professor at the Graduate Institute of International Politics, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan in 2012. Dr Rajagopalan has authored or edited nine books including Global Nuclear Security: Moving Beyond the NSS (2018), Space Policy 2.0 (2017), Nuclear Security in India (2015), Clashing Titans: Military Strategy and Insecurity among Asian Great Powers (2012), The Dragon's Fire: Chinese Military Strategy and Its Implications for Asia (2009). She has published research essays in edited volumes, and in peer reviewed journals such as India Review, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Air and Space Power Journal, International Journal of Nuclear Law and Strategic Analysis. She has also contributed essays to newspapers such as The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Times of India, and The Economic Times. She has been invited to speak at international fora including the United Nations Disarmament Forum (New York), the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) (Vienna), Conference on Disarmament (Geneva), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the European Union.) "China's irresponsible behaviour: A threat to space security" Observer Research Foundation, 5/12/2021. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/chinas-irresponsible-behaviour-a-threat-to-space-security/~~ BC With China planning an ambitious space programme that includes its own space station, it is likely that there will be more such risky incidents in the future as well. It is somewhat disturbing because China's space programme has advanced to a degree that it undertakes missions including landing on the South Pole-Aitken Basin (on the far side of the Moon), returning rocks from the moon, and an interplanetary mission to Mars, which clearly demonstrates China has the technical capability to design and launch rockets whose spent stages can land without putting others at risk. That it has not done so is odd. It is not exactly what can be characterised as responsible behaviour in space. Another example of China breaking norms and engaging in irresponsible behaviour in space is its ASAT test. China's first successful anti-satellite (ASAT) test in January 2007, at an altitude of 850 kilometres, resulted in creating around 3,000 pieces of space debris. More significantly, it broke the unwritten moratorium that was in place for two decades. Beijing also started developing various counterspace capabilities with the goal of competing with the US. Nevertheless, each of China's actions have led to a spiral effect, with others seeking to match China's actions, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, given the contested nature of Asian and global geopolitics. For example, China's repeated ASAT tests have led to the US' own ASAT test (Operation Burnt Frost in 2008), and India's ASAT test (Mission Shakti in 2019). India had no plans to go down this path until China's first ASAT test, which became a gamechanging moment for India. Even so, India did not react to it for more than a decade, but the final decision was a carefully calibrated and a direct response to China's growing military space capabilities and its less-than responsible behaviour. Other countries like Japan and France are also contemplating moves in this direction. Australia may not be far behind either. Even though it may not be linked to the uncontrolled re-entry of the Chinese rocket, Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Astrophysics Center at Harvard University noted that "about six minutes after Tianhe and the CZ-5B separated, they both came close to the ISS—under 300 km, which given uncertainties in trajectory is a tad alarming." Making this point, he added "it's *possible* that this ISS/Tianhe close encounter was one of those unlikely coincidences. I'm open to that possibility, but they should still have spotted the closeness and warned NASA (or better, called a collision avoidance hold in the count)." Rocket re-entries are not uncommon, but space powers have tried to avoid the freefalls by usually conducting controlled re-entries so that they may fall in the ocean, or they may be directed towards the so-called "graveyard" orbits that may lie there for decades. But Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Astrophysics Center at Harvard University argues that the Chinese rocket was designed in a manner that "leaves these big stages in low orbit." And even in the case of controlled re-entries, there are failures sometimes and they can be dangerous too. SpaceX's rocket debris landing on a farm in Washington in March this year is a case in point. Moriba Jah, an Associate Professor at The University of Texas at Austin argues in a media interview that such events are going to become more common, and will happen more frequently and, therefore, humanity should come together to "jointly manage near earth space as a commons in need of coordination, protocols, and practices to maximise safety, security, and sustainability." On the NASA Administrator's statement, Jah said this should not be "singling out China." Certainly, this is not about apportioning blame, but China's actions cannot be condoned either. What can be done? Given that usable orbits in space are finite in nature, there will need to be steps taken by all the space players to ensure that their actions do not contribute to further pollution of space and make it unusable in the near term. States have to invest in technologies that would aid in cleaning up and getting rid of some of the debris. States also need to come together in developing norms, rules of the road, and legally binding and political instruments on large rocket body re-entries. The Long March 5B episode has yet again rekindled the debate on the need for rules for rocket and large body re-entries. Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation, for instance, questioned why, despite all ranting about China's rocket re-entry issues, the US State Department has "consistently oppose~d~ anything stronger than voluntary guidelines." Weeden has provided a useful Twitter thread on the US hesitancy to get on board with legal agreements on outer space. One problem is that while the US abides by international obligations, other do not. This is a concern that Weeden notes "has a grain of truth" but adds the caveat that "reality is not that definitive". While he is correct to note that the issue is complicated, it is also true that countries like China have a terrible track record when it comes to meeting their treaty commitments. China's violation of its own commitments with respect to nuclear non-proliferation, or in the South China Sea and East China Sea are well-known. Given this history, it is difficult to believe that China will allow itself to be bound by any restraints on its space programme, even if it signs any of these agreements. But given the US' almost allergic reaction to signing legal agreements that others like China may violate, it doesn't hurt China to keep bringing up PPWT-like (Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects) measures every now and then. This puts the whole international community in a bind. If we have to ensure safe and uninterrupted access to space, creating a secure, sustainable, and predictable outer space framework is essential. But unless all states demonstrate a commitment to living up to existing rules and norms, creating new ones will be difficult.
Development of Chinese Anti-Satellite Weapons emboldens China to invade Taiwan. If China invades, the U.S. has two options. First, it doesn't follow through on its defense commitment to Taiwan, which will hurt its alliances. Second, it defends Taiwan, which will lead to nuclear war.
Chow and Kelley on August 21st ~(Brian G., policy analyst for the Institute of World Politics, Ph.D in physics from Case Western Reserve University, MBA and Ph.D in finance from the University of Michigan, and Brandon, graduate of Georgetown's School of Foreign Service) "China's Anti-Satellite Weapons Could Conquer Taiwan—Or Start a War," National Interest, 8/21/2021~ JL If current trends hold, then China's Strategic Support Force will be capable by the late 2020s of holding key U.S. space assets at risk. Chinese military doctrine, statements by senior officials, and past behavior all suggest that China may well believe threatening such assets to be an effective means of deterring U.S. intervention. If so, then the United States would face a type of "Sophie's Choice": decline to intervene, potentially leading allies to follow suit and Taiwan to succumb without a fight, thereby enabling Xi to achieve his goal of "peacefully" snuffing out Taiwanese independence; or start a war that would at best be long and bloody and might well even cross the nuclear threshold. This emerging crisis has been three decades in the making. In 1991, China watched from afar as the United States used space-enabled capabilities to obliterate the Iraqi military from a distance in the first Gulf War. The People's Liberation Army quickly set to work developing capabilities targeted at a perceived Achilles' heel of this new American way of war: reliance on vulnerable space systems. This project came to fruition with a direct ascent ASAT weapons test in 2007, but the test was limited in two key respects. First, it only reached low Earth orbit. Second, it generated thousands of pieces of long-lasting space junk, provoking immense international ire. This backlash appears to have taken China by surprise, driving it to seek new, more usable ASAT types with minimal debris production. Now, one such ASAT is nearing operational status: spacecraft capable of rendezvous and proximity operations (RPOs). Such spacecraft are inevitable and cannot realistically be limited. The United States, European Union, China, and others are developing them to provide a range of satellite services essential to the new space economy, such as in situ repairs and refueling of satellites and active removal of space debris. But RPO capabilities are dual-use: if a satellite can grapple space objects for servicing, then it might well be capable of grappling an adversary's satellite to move it out of its servicing orbit. Perhaps it could degrade or disable it by bending or disconnecting its solar panels and antennas all while producing minimal debris. This is a serious threat, primarily because no international rules presently exist to limit close approaches in space. Left unaddressed, this lacuna in international law and space policy could enable a prospective attacker to pre-position, during peacetime, as many spacecraft as they wish as close as they wish to as many high-value targets as they wish. The result would be an ever-present possibility of sudden, bolt-from-the-blue attacks on vital space assets—and worse, on many of them at once. China has conducted at least half a dozen tests of RPO capabilities in space since 2008, two of which went on for years. Influential space experts have noted that these tests have plausible peaceful purposes and are in many cases similar to those conducted by the United States. This, however, does not make it any less important to establish effective legal, policy, and technical counters to their offensive use. Even if it were certain that these capabilities are intended purely for peaceful applications—and it is not at all clear that that is the case—China (or any other country) could at any time decide to repurpose these capabilities for ASAT use. There is still time to get out ahead of this threat, but likely not for much longer. China's RPO capabilities have, thus far, lagged about five years behind those of the United States. There are reasons to believe this gap may close, but even assuming that it holds, we should expect to see China demonstrate an operational dual-use rendezvous spacecraft by around 2025. (The first instance of a U.S. commercial satellite docking with another satellite to change its orbit occurred in February 2020.) At the same time, China is expanding its capacity for rapid spacecraft manufacturing. The Global Times reported in January that China's first intelligent mass production line is set to produce 240 small satellites per year. In April, Andrew Jones at SpaceNews reported that China is developing plans to quickly produce and loft a thirteen thousand-satellite national internet megaconstellation. It is not unreasonable to assume that China could manufacture two hundred small rendezvous ASAT spacecraft by 2029, possibly more. If this happens, and Beijing was to decide in 2029 to launch these two hundred small RPO spacecraft and position them in close proximity to strategically vital assets, then China would be able to simultaneously threaten disablement of the entire constellations of U.S. satellites for missile early warning (about a dozen satellites with spares included); communications in a nuclear-disrupted environment (about a dozen); and positioning, navigation, and timing (about three dozen); along with several dozen key communications, imagery, and meteorology satellites. Losing these assets would severely degrade U.S. deterrence and warfighting capabilities, yet once close pre-positioning has occurred such losses become almost impossible to prevent. For this reason, such pre-positioning could conceivably deter the United States from coming to Taiwan's aid due to the prospect that intervention would spur China to disable these critical space systems. Without their support, the war would be much bloodier and costlier—a daunting proposition for any president. Should the United States fail to intervene, the consequences would be disastrous for both Washington and its allies in East Asia, and potentially the credibility of U.S. defense commitments around the globe. Worse yet, however, might be what could happen if China believes that such a threat will succeed but proves to be wrong. History is rife with examples of major wars arising from miscalculations such as this, and there are many pathways by which such a situation could easily escalate out of control to a full-scale conventional conflict or even to nuclear use.
Cementing America's lead in the commercial space industry is key to preserve hegemony
Autry and Kwast in 2019 ~(Greg, a clinical professor of space leadership, policy, and business at Arizona State University's Thunderbird School of Global Management. He served on the 2016 NASA transition team and as the White House liaison at NASA in 2017. He is the chair of the Safety Working Group for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee.) (Steve, a Lieutenant General and commander of Recruiting, Training, Educating and Development for the Air Force. He is an astronautical engineer and Harvard Fellow in Public Policy.) "America Is Losing the Second Space Race to China" Foreign Policy, 8/22/2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/22/america-is-losing-the-second-space-race-to-china/~~ BC The private sector can give the United States a much-needed rocket boost. The current U.S. space defense strategy is inadequate and on a path to failure. President Donald Trump's vision for a Space Force is big enough. As he said on June 18, "It is not enough to merely have an American presence in space. We must have American dominance in space." But the Air Force is not matching this vision. Instead, the leadership is currently focused on incremental improvements to existing equipment and organizational structures. Dominating the vast and dynamic environment of space will require revolutionary capabilities and resources far deeper than traditional Department of Defense thinking can fund, manage, or even conceive of. Success depends on a much more active partnership with the commercial space industry— and its disruptive capabilities. U.S. military space planners are preparing to repeat a conflict they imagined back in the 1980s, which never actually occurred, against a vanished Soviet empire. Meanwhile, China is executing a winning strategy in the world of today. It is burning hard toward domination of the future space markets that will define the next century. They are planning infrastructure in space that will control 21st-century telecommunications, energy, transportation, and manufacturing. In doing so, they will acquire trillion-dollar revenues as well as the deep capabilities that come from continuous operational experience in space. This will deliver space dominance and global hegemony to China's authoritarian rulers. Despite the fact that many in the policy and intelligence communities understand exactly what China is doing and have been trying to alert leadership, Air Force leadership has convinced the White House to fund only a slightly better satellite command with the same leadership, while sticking a new label onto their outmoded thinking. A U.S. Space Force or Corps with a satellite command will never fulfill Trump's call to dominate space. Air Force leadership is demonstrating the same hubris that Gen. George Custer used in convincing Congress, over President Ulysses S. Grant's better experience intuition, that he could overtake the Black Hills with repeating rifles and artillery. That strategy of technological overconfidence inflamed conflict rather than subduing it, and the 7th Cavalry were wiped out at the Battle of the Little Bighorn. The West was actually won by the settlers, ranchers, miners, and railroad barons who were able to convert the wealth of the territory itself into the means of holding it. They laid the groundwork that made the 20th century the American Century and delivered freedom to millions of people in Europe and Asia. Of course, they also trampled the indigenous people of the American West in their wake—but empty space comes with no such bloody cost. The very emptiness and wealth of this new, if not quite final, frontier, however, means that competition for resources and strategic locations in cislunar space (between the Earth and moon) will be intense over the next two decades. The outcome of this competition will determine the fate of humanity in the next century. China's impending dominance will neutralize U.S. geopolitical power by allowing Beijing to control global information flows from the high ground of space. Imagine a school in Bolivia or a farmer in Kenya choosing between paying for a U.S. satellite internet or image provider or receiving those services for free as a "gift of the Chinese people." It will be of little concern to global consumers that the news they receive is slanted or that searches for "free speech" link to articles about corruption in Western democracies. Nor will they care if concentration camps in Tibet and the Uighur areas of western China are obscured, or if U.S. military action is presented as tyranny and Chinese expansion is described as peacekeeping or liberation. China's aggressive investment in space solar power will allow it to provide cheap, clean power to the world, displacing U.S. energy firms while placing a second yoke around the developing world. Significantly, such orbital power stations have dual use potential and, if properly designed, could serve as powerful offensive weapons platforms. China's first step in this process is to conquer the growing small space launch market. Beijing is providing nominally commercial firms with government-manufactured, mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles they can use to dump launch services on the market below cost. These start-ups are already undercutting U.S. pricing by 80 percent. Based on its previous success in using dumping to take out U.S. developed industries such as solar power modules and drones, China will quickly move upstream to attack the leading U.S. launch providers and secure a global commercial monopoly. Owning the launch market will give them an unsurmountable advantage against U.S. competitors in satellite internet, imaging, and power. The United States can still build a strategy to win. At this moment, it holds the competitive advantage in every critical space technology and has the finest set of commercial space firms in the world. It has pockets of innovative military thinkers within groups like the Defense Innovation Unit, under Mike Griffin, the Pentagon's top research and development official. If the United States simply protects the intellectual property its creative minds unleash and defend its truly free markets from strategic mercantilist attack, it will not lose this new space race. The United States has done this before. It beat Germany to the nuclear bomb, it beat the Soviet Union to the nuclear triad, and it won the first space race. None of those victories was achieved by embracing the existing bureaucracy. Each of them depended on the president of the day following the only proven path to victory in a technological domain: establish a small team with a positively disruptive mindset and empower that team to investigate a wide range of new concepts, work with emerging technologies, and test innovative strategies. Today that means giving a dedicated Space Force the freedom to easily partner with commercial firms and leverage the private capital in building sustainable infrastructure that actually reduces the likelihood of conflict while securing a better economic future for the nation and the world.
United States hegemony in this decade is critical to prevent global war and peacefully end violent Chinese power-grabs Erickson and Collins on October 21st ~(Andrew, A professor of strategy in the U.S. Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute)(Gabriel, Baker Botts fellow in energy and environmental regulatory affairs at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy) "A Dangerous Decade of Chinese Power Is Here," Foreign Policy, 10/18/2021~ U.S. and allied policymakers are facing the most important foreign-policy challenge of the 21st century. China's power is peaking; so is the political position of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) domestic strength. In the long term, China's likely decline after this peak is a good thing. But right now, it creates a decade of danger from a system that increasingly realizes it only has a short time to fulfill some of its most critical, long-held goals.
Within the next five years, China's leaders are likely to conclude that its deteriorating demographic profile, structural economic problems, and technological estrangement from global innovation centers are eroding its leverage to annex Taiwan and achieve other major strategic objectives. As Xi internalizes these challenges, his foreign policy is likely to become even more accepting of risk, feeding on his nearly decadelong track record of successful revisionist action against the rules-based order. Notable examples include China occupying and militarizing sub-tidal features in the South China Sea, ramping up air and maritime incursions against Japan and Taiwan, pushing border challenges against India, occupying Bhutanese and Tibetan lands, perpetrating crimes against humanity in Xinjiang, and coercively enveloping Hong Kong. The relatively low-hanging fruit is plucked, but Beijing is emboldened to grasp the biggest single revisionist prize: Taiwan. Beijing's actions over the last decade have triggered backlash, such as with the so-called AUKUS deal, but concrete constraints on China's strategic freedom of action may not fully manifest until after 2030. It's remarkable and dangerous that China has paid few costs for its actions over the last 10 years, even as its military capacities have rapidly grown. Beijing will likely conclude that under current diplomatic, economic, and force postures for both "gray zone" and high-end scenarios, the 2021 to late 2020s timeframe still favors China—and is attractive for its 68-year-old leader, who seeks a historical achievement at the zenith of his career. U.S. planners must mobilize resources, effort, and risk acceptance to maximize power and thereby deter Chinese aggression in the coming decade—literally starting now—and innovatively employ assets that currently exist or can be operationally assembled and scaled within the next several years. That will be the first step to pushing back against China during the 2020s—a decade of danger—before what will likely be a waning of Chinese power. As Beijing aggressively seeks to undermine the international order and promotes a narrative of inevitable Chinese strategic domination in Asia and beyond, it creates a dangerous contradiction between its goals and its medium-term capacity to achieve them. China is, in fact, likely nearing the apogee of its relative power; and by 2030 to 2035, it will cross a tipping point from which it may never recover strategically. Growing headwinds constraining Chinese growth, while not publicly acknowledged by Beijing, help explain Xi's high and apparently increasing risk tolerance. Beijing's window of strategic opportunity is sliding shut. China's skyrocketing household debt levels exemplify structural economic constraints that are emerging much earlier than they did for the United States when it had similar per capita GDP and income levels. Debt is often a wet blanket on consumption growth. A 2017 analysis published by the Bank for International Settlements found that once the household debt-to-GDP ratio in a sample of 54 countries exceeded 60 percent, "the negative long-run effects on consumption tend to intensify." China's household debt-to-GDP ratio surpassed that empirical danger threshold in late 2020. Rising debt service burdens thus threaten Chinese consumers' capacity to sustain the domestic consumption-focused "dual circulation" economic model that Xi and his advisors seek to build. China's growth record during the past 30 years has been remarkable, but past exceptionalism does not confer future immunity from fundamental demographic and economic headwinds. As debt levels continue to rise at an absolute level that has accelerated almost continuously for the past decade, China also faces a hollowing out of its working-age population. This critical segment peaked in 2010 and has since declined, with the rate from 2015 to 2020 nearing 0.6 percent annually—nearly twice the respective pace in the United States. While the United States faces demographic challenges of its own, the disparity between the respective paces of decline highlights its relative advantage compared to its chief geopolitical competitor. Moreover, the United States can choose to access a global demographic and talent dividend via immigration in a way China simply will not be able to do. Atop surging debt and worsening demographics, China also faces resource insecurity. China's dependence on imported food and energy has grown steadily over the past two decades. Projections from Tsinghua University make a compelling case that China's oil and gas imports will peak between 2030 and 2035. As China grapples with power shortages, Beijing has been reminded that supply shortfalls equal to even a few percentage points of total demand can have outsized negative impacts. Domestic resource insufficiency by itself does not hinder economic growth—as the Four Asian Tigers' multi-decade boom attests. But China is in a different position. Japan and South Korea never had to worry about the U.S. Navy interdicting inbound tankers or grain ships. In fact, the United States was avowedly willing to use military force to protect energy flows from the Persian Gulf region to its allies. Now, as an increasingly energy-secure United States pivots away from the Middle East toward the Indo-Pacific, there is a substantial probability that energy shipping route protection could be viewed in much more differentiated terms—with oil and liquefied natural gas cargoes sailing under the Chinese flag viewed very differently than cargoes headed to buyers in other regional countries. Each of these dynamics—demographic downshifts, rising debts, resource supply insecurity—either imminently threatens or is already actively interfering with the CCP's long-cherished goal of achieving a "moderately prosperous society." Electricity blackouts, real estate sector travails (like those of Evergrande) that show just how many Chinese investors' financial eggs now sit in an unstable $52 trillion basket, and a solidifying alignment of countries abroad concerned by aggressive Chinese behavior all raise questions about Xi's ability to deliver. With this confluence of adverse events only a year before the next party congress, where personal ambition and survival imperatives will almost drive him to seek anointment as the only Chinese "leader for life" aside from former leader Mao Zedong, the timing only fuels his sense of insecurity. Xi's anti-corruption campaigns and ruthless removal of potential rivals and their supporters solidified his power but likely also created a quiet corps of opponents who may prove willing to move against him if events create the perception he's lost the "mandate of heaven." Accordingly, the baseline assumption should be that Xi's crown sits heavy and the insecurity induced is thereby intense enough to drive high-stake, high-consequence posturing and action. While Xi is under pressure to act, the external risks are magnified because so far, he has suffered few consequences from taking actions on issues his predecessors would likely never have gambled on. Reactions to party predations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong have been restricted to diplomatic-signaling pinpricks, such as sanctioning responsible Chinese officials and entities, most of whom lack substantial economic ties to the United States. Whether U.S. restraint results from a fear of losing market access or a belief that China's goals are ultimately limited is not clear at this time. While the CCP issues retaliatory sanctions against U.S. officials and proclaims a triumphant outcome to its hostage diplomacy, these tactical public actions mask a growing private awareness that China's latitude for irredentist action is poised to shrink. Not knowing exactly when domestic and external constraints will come to bite—but knowing that when Beijing sees the tipping point in its rearview mirror, major rivals will recognize it too—amplifies Xi and the party's anxiety to act on a shorter timeline. Hence the dramatic acceleration of the last few years. Just as China is mustering its own strategic actions, so the United States must also intensify its focus and deployment of resources. The United States has taken too long to warm up and confront the central challenge, but it retains formidable advantages, agility, and the ability to prevail—provided it goes all-in now. Conversely, if Washington fails to marshal its forces promptly, its achievements after 2030 or 2035 will matter little. Seizing the 2020s would enable Beijing to cripple ~destroy~ the free and open rules-based order and entrench its position by economically subjugating regional neighbors (including key U.S. treaty allies) to a degree that could offset the strategic headwinds China now increasingly grapples with. Deterrence is never certain. But it offers the highest probability of avoiding the certainty that an Indo-Pacific region dominated by a CCP-led China would doom treaty allies, threaten the U.S. homeland, and likely set the stage for worse to come. Accordingly, U.S. planners should immediately mobilize resources and effort as well as accept greater risks to deter Chinese action over the critical next decade. The greatest threat is armed conflict over Taiwan, where U.S. and allied success or failure will be fundamental and reverberate for the remainder of the century. There is a high chance of a major move against Taiwan by the late 2020s—following an extraordinary ramp-up in People's Liberation Army capabilities and before Xi or the party state's power grasp has ebbed or Washington and its allies have fully regrouped and rallied to the challenge. So how should policymakers assess the potential risk of Chinese action against Taiwan reaching dangerous levels by 2027 or possibly even earlier—as emphasized in the testimonies of Adms. Philip Davidson and John Aquilino? In June, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley testified to the House of Representatives that Xi had "challenged the People's Liberation Army to accelerate their modernization programs to develop capabilities to seize Taiwan and move it from 2035 to 2027," although China does not currently have the capabilities or intentions to conduct an all-out invasion of mainland Taiwan. U.S. military leaders' assessments are informed by some of the world's most extensive and sophisticated internal information. But what's striking is open-source information available to everyone suggests similar things. Moving forward, a number of open-source indicators offer valuable "early warning lights" that can help policymakers more accurately calibrate both potential timetables and risk readings as the riskiest period of relations—from 2027 onward—approaches. Semiconductors supply self-sufficiency. Taiwan is the "OPEC+" of semiconductors, accounting for approximately two-thirds of global chip foundry capacity. A kinetic crisis would almost certainly disrupt—and potentially even completely curtail—semiconductor supplies. China presently spends even more each year on semiconductor imports (around $380 billion) than it does on oil, but much of the final products are destined for markets abroad. Taiwan is producing cutting-edge 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer chips, but China produces around 80 percent of the rest of the chips in the world. The closer China comes to being able to secure "good enough" chips for "inside China-only" needs, the less of a constraint this becomes. Crude oil, grain, strategic metals stockpiles—the commercial community (Planet Labs, Ursa Space Systems, etc.) has developed substantial expertise in cost-effectively tracking inventory changes for key input commodities needed to prepare for war. Electric vehicle fleet size—the amount of oil demand displaced by electric vehicles varies depending on miles driven, but the more of China's car fleet that can be connected to the grid (and thus powered by blockade-resistant coal), the less political burden Beijing will face if it has to weather a maritime oil blockade imposed in response to actions it took against Taiwan or other major revisionist adventures. China's passenger vehicle fleet, now approximately 225 million units strong, counts nearly 6.5 million electric vehicles among its ranks, the lion's share of which are full-battery electrics. China's State Council seeks to have 20 percent of new vehicles sold in China be electric vehicles by 2025. This target has already basically been achieved over the last few months, meaning at least 3.5 to 4 million (and eventually many more) new elective vehicles will enter China's car fleet each year from now on. Local concentration of maritime vessels—snap exercises with warships, circumnavigations, and midline tests with swarms of aircraft highlight the growing scale of China's threat to Taiwan. But these assets alone cannot invade the island. To capture and garrison, Beijing would need not only air, missile, naval, and special operations forces but also the ability to move lots of equipment and—at the very least—tens of thousands of personnel across the Taiwan Strait. As such, Beijing would have to amass maritime transport assets. And given the scale required, this would alter ship patterns elsewhere along China's coast in ways detectable with artificial intelligence-facilitated imagery analysis from firms like Planet Labs (or national assets). Only the most formidable, agile American and allied deterrence can kick the can down the road long enough for China's slowdown to shut the window of vulnerability. Holding the line is likely to require frequent and sustained proactive enforcement actions to disincentivize full-frontal Chinese assaults on the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. Chinese probing behavior and provocations must be met with a range of symmetric and asymmetric responses that impose real costs, such as publishing assets owned by Chinese officials abroad, cyber interference with China's technological social control apparatus, "hands on" U.S. Navy and Coast Guard enforcement measures against Maritime Militia-affiliated vessels in the South China Sea, intensified air and maritime surveillance of Chinese naval bases, and visas and resettlement options to Hong Kongers, Uyghurs, and other threatened Chinese citizens—including CCP officials (and their families) who seek to defect and/or leave China. U.S. policymakers must make crystal clear to their Chinese counterparts that the engagement-above-all policies that dominated much of the past 25 years are over and the risks and costs of ongoing—and future—adventurism will fall heaviest on China.
Nuclear war causes extinction – famine and climate change
Starr in 2015 ~(Steven, Director of the University of Missouri's Clinical Laboratory Science Program and a senior scientist at the Physicians for Social Responsibility) "Nuclear War, Nuclear Winter, and Human Extinction," Federation of American Scientists, 10/14/2015~ DD While it is impossible to precisely predict all the human impacts that would result from a nuclear winter, it is relatively simple to predict those which would be most profound. That is, a nuclear winter would cause most humans and large animals to die from nuclear famine in a mass extinction event similar to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. Following the detonation (in conflict) of US and/or Russian launch-ready strategic nuclear weapons, nuclear firestorms would burn simultaneously over a total land surface area of many thousands or tens of thousands of square miles. These mass fires, many of which would rage over large cities and industrial areas, would release many tens of millions of tons of black carbon soot and smoke (up to 180 million tons, according to peer-reviewed studies), which would rise rapidly above cloud level and into the stratosphere. ~For an explanation of the calculation of smoke emissions, see Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts.~ The scientists who completed the most recent peer-reviewed studies on nuclear winter discovered that the sunlight would heat the smoke, producing a self-lofting effect that would not only aid the rise of the smoke into the stratosphere (above cloud level, where it could not be rained out), but act to keep the smoke in the stratosphere for 10 years or more. The longevity of the smoke layer would act to greatly increase the severity of its effects upon the biosphere. Once in the stratosphere, the smoke (predicted to be produced by a range of strategic nuclear wars) would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70 of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35 of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia. ~For an explanation of nuclear winter, see Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences.~ Nuclear winter would cause average global surface temperatures to become colder than they were at the height of the last Ice Age. Such extreme cold would eliminate growing seasons for many years, probably for a decade or longer. Can you imagine a winter that lasts for ten years? The results of such a scenario are obvious. Temperatures would be much too cold to grow food, and they would remain this way long enough to cause most humans and animals to starve to death. Global nuclear famine would ensue in a setting in which the infrastructure of the combatant nations has been totally destroyed, resulting in massive amounts of chemical and radioactive toxins being released into the biosphere. We don't need a sophisticated study to tell us that no food and Ice Age temperatures for a decade would kill most people and animals on the planet. Would the few remaining survivors be able to survive in a radioactive, toxic environment?
Scoles 15 ~(Sarah Scoles, freelance science writer, contributor at Wired and Popular Science, author of the books Making Contact and They Are Already Here) "Dust from asteroid mining spells danger for satellites," New Scientist, May 27, 2015, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22630235-100-dust-from-asteroid-mining-spells-danger-for-satellites/~~ TDI Study this is citing – Javier Roa, Space Dynamic Group, Applied Physics Department AND 30 per cent (arxiv.org/abs/1505.03800).
Debris harms satellites
Intagliata 17 ~(Christopher Intagliata, MA Journalism from NYU, Editor for NPRs All Things Considered, Reporter/Host for Scientific American's 60 Second Science) "The Sneaky Danger of Space Dust," Scientific American, May 11, 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-sneaky-danger-of-space-dust/~~ TDI When tiny particles of space debris slam into satellites, the collision could cause the emission of hardware-frying radiation, Christopher Intagliata reports. Aside from all the satellites, and the space station orbiting the Earth, there's a lot of trash circling the planet, too. Twenty-one thousand baseball-sized chunks of debris, according to NASA. But that number's dwarfed by the number of small particles. There's hundreds of millions of those. "And those smaller particles tend to be going fast. Think of picking up a grain of sand at the beach, and that would be on the large side. But they're going 60 kilometers per second." Sigrid Close, an applied physicist and astronautical engineer at Stanford University. Close says that whereas mechanical damage—like punctures—is the worry with the bigger chunks, the dust-sized stuff might leave more insidious, invisible marks on satellites—by causing electrical damage. "We also think this phenomenon can be attributed to some of the failures and anomalies we see on orbit, that right now are basically tagged as 'unknown cause.'" Close and her colleague Alex Fletcher modeled this phenomenon mathematically, based on plasma physics behavior. And here's what they think happens. First, the dust slams into the spacecraft. Incredibly fast. It vaporizes and ionizes a bit of the ship—and itself. Which generates a cloud of ions and electrons, traveling at different speeds. And then: "It's like a spring action, the electrons are pulled back to the ions, ions are being pushed ahead a little bit. And then the electrons overshoot the ions, so they oscillate, and then they go back out again." That movement of electrons creates a pulse of electromagnetic radiation, which Close says could be the culprit for some of that electrical damage to satellites. The study is in the journal Physics of Plasmas. ~Alex C. Fletcher and Sigrid Close, Particle-in-cell simulations of an RF emission mechanism associated with hypervelocity impact plasmas~
Klein 14~(Naomi Klein, award-winning journalist, syndicated columnist, former Miliband Fellow at the London School of Economics, member of the board of directors of 350.org), This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate, pp. 12-14~ In a 2012 report, the World Bank laid out the gamble implied by that target. "As global warming approaches and exceeds 2-degrees Celsius, there is a risk of triggering nonlinear tipping elements. Examples include the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet leading to more rapid sea-level rise, or large-scale Amazon dieback drastically affecting ecosystems, rivers, agriculture, energy production, and livelihoods. This would further add to 21st-century global warming and impact entire continents." In other words, once we allow temperatures to climb past a certain point, where the mercury stops is not in our control. But the bigger problem—and the reason Copenhagen caused such great despair—is that because governments did not agree to binding targets, they are free to pretty much ignore their commitments. Which is precisely what is happening. Indeed, emissions are rising so rapidly that unless something radical changes within our economic structure, 2 degrees now looks like a utopian dream. And it's not just environmentalists who are raising the alarm. The World Bank also warned when it released its report that "we're on track to a 4-C warmer world ~by century's end~ marked by extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise." And the report cautioned that, "there is also no certainty that adaptation to a 4-C world is possible." Kevin Anderson, former director (now deputy director) of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, which has quickly established itself as one of the U.K's premier climate research institutions, is even blunter; he says 4 degrees Celsius warming—7.2 degrees Fahrenheit—is "incompatible with an organized, equitable, and civilized global community." We don't know exactly what a 4 degree Celsius world would look like, but even the best-case scenario is likely to be calamitous. Four degrees of warming could raise global sea levels by 1 or possibly even 2 meters by 2100 (and would lock in at least a few additional meters over future centuries). This would drown some island nations such as the Maldives and Tuvalu, and inundate many coastal areas from Ecuador and Brazil to the Netherlands to much of California and the northeastern United States as well as huge swaths of South and Southeast Asia. Major cities likely in jeopardy include Boston, New York, greater Los Angeles, Vancouver, London, Mumbai, Hong Kong, and Shanghai. Meanwhile, brutal heat waves that can kill tens of thousands of people, even in wealthy countries, would become entirely unremarkable summer events on every continent but Antarctica. The heat would also cause staple crops to suffer dramatic yield losses across the globe (it is possible that Indian wheat and U.S. could plummet by as much as 60 percent), this at a time when demand will be surging due to population growth and a growing demand for meat. And since crops will be facing not just heat stress but also extreme events such as wide-ranging droughts, flooding, or pest outbreaks, the losses could easily turn out to be more severe than the models have predicted. When you add ruinous hurricanes, raging wildfires, fisheries collapses, widespread disruptions to water supplies, extinctions, and globe-trotting diseases to the mix, it indeed becomes difficult to imagine that a peaceful, ordered society could be sustained (that is, where such a thing exists in the first place). And keep in mind that these are the optimistic scenarios in which warming is more or less stabilized at 4 degrees Celsius and does not trigger tipping points beyond which runaway warming would occur. Based on the latest modeling, it is becoming safer to assume that 4 degrees could bring about a number of extremely dangerous feedback loops—an Arctic that is regularly ice-free in September, for instance, or, according to one recent study, global vegetation that is too saturated to act as a reliable "sink", leading to more carbon being emitted rather than stored. Once this happens, any hope of predicting impacts pretty much goes out the window. And this process may be starting sooner than anyone predicted. In May 2014, NASA and the University of California, Irvine scientists revealed that glacier melt in a section of West Antarctica roughly the size of France now "appears unstoppable." This likely spells down for the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, which according to lead study author Eric Rignot "comes with a sea level rise between three and five metres. Such an event will displace millions of people worldwide." The disintegration, however, could unfold over centuries and there is still time for emission reductions to slow down the process and prevent the worst. Much more frightening than any of this is the fact that plenty of mainstream analysts think that on our current emissions trajectory, we are headed for even more than 4 degrees of warming. In 2011, the usually staid International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a report predicting that we are actually on track for 6 degrees Celsius—10.8 degrees Fahrenheit—of warming. And as the IEA's chief economist put it: "Everybody, even the school children, knows that this will have catastrophic implications for all of us." (The evidence indicates that 6 degrees of warming is likely to set in motion several major tipping points—not only slower ones such as the aforementioned breakdown of the West Antarctic ice sheet, but possibly more abrupt ones, like massive releases of methane from Arctic permafrost.) The accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers as also published a report warning businesses that we are headed for "4-C , or even 6-C" of warming. These various projections are the equivalent of every alarm in your house going off simultaneously. And then every alarm on your street going off as well, one by one by one. They mean, quite simply, that climate change has become an existential crisis for the human species. The only historical precedent for a crisis of this depth and scale was the Cold War fear that we were headed toward nuclear holocaust, which would have made much of the planet uninhabitable. But that was (and remains) a threat; a slim possibility, should geopolitics spiral out of control. The vast majority of nuclear scientists never told us that we were almost certainly going to put our civilization in peril if we kept going about our daily lives as usual, doing exactly what we were already going, which is what climate scientists have been telling us for years. As the Ohio State University climatologist Lonnie G. Thompson, a world-renowned specialist on glacier melt, explained in 2010, "Climatologists, like other scientists, tend to be a stolid group. We are not given to theatrical rantings about falling skies. Most of us are far more comfortable in our laboratories or gathering data in the field than we are giving interviews to journalists or speaking before Congressional committees. When then are climatologists speaking out about the dangers of global warming? The answer is that virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and present danger to civilization."
Communicative spaces such as debate are governed through biopolitical technologies of fluency which smooth over semiotic interruptions in search for stable and univocal operations. This bends bodies to align their speech patterns with compulsory able-bodiedness.
St. Pierre 17 Becoming Dysfluent: Fluency as Biopolitics and Hegemony Joshua St. Pierre Journal of Literary and Cultural Disability Studies, Volume 11, Issue 3, 2017, pp. 342-344 (Article) Published by Liverpool University Press UTDD Given that compulsory able-bodiedness emanates from everywhere and nowhere, it is perhaps AND event toward specific, technical ends through the logic of optimization and closure.
The figure of the better than able-bodied Child circulates happy affects of pride, hope, cure, and progress, which sustains a neoliberal order whereby the promise of happiness shapes our affective dispositions. This affective economy determines the value and circulation of social goods which allows biocapitalism to frame disability through a narrative of overcoming suffering. This produces disability as tragedy, pity, and disgust.
Fritsch 2 The Neoliberal Biopolitics of Disability: Towards Emergent Intracorporeal Practices by Kelly Fritsch JUNE 2015 pp. 82-84 UTDD Indebted to the work of Henri- Bergson, Baruch Spinoza, and Gilles Deleuze AND circulate, even in the face of contested understandings of disability or accessibility.
The affirmative is not merely a war waged on futurity – we recognize that the battle must be fought within relationality and the figure of the Child. Instead, the aff complicates neoliberalism's current investments in the future and negates the options it has offered us. The figure of the Child is understood for what it is, a regime of hygiene that co-constitutes disability, race, class, and queerness as sites of delimiting reproductive futurity. This is a demand for a better future, not for our children, but as an ethical call that affirms our relationality.
Fritsch 4 The Neoliberal Biopolitics of Disability: Towards Emergent Intracorporeal Practices by Kelly Fritsch JUNE 2015 pp.169-172 UTDD However, as this chapter has shown, disability cannot operate in a full negation AND to heterotopically and intracorporeally invest otherwise in social relations that complicate this horizon.
Voting affirmative engages in a heterotopic imagination of disability. This is a method of imagining disability differently outside of the current neoliberal conditions. The product is a figure of disability not as something to overcome but as a life worth living.
Fritsch 5 The Neoliberal Biopolitics of Disability: Towards Emergent Intracorporeal Practices by Kelly Fritsch JUNE 2015 pp. 174-175 UTDD Challenging the undesirability of disability is a shared responsibility and goes beyond the inclusion of AND disability is, how it is practiced, and what it can be.
Moral realism must start by being mind-independent –realism wouldn't make sense if our moral laws were based on an agent's cognitive thinking because then moral truths wouldn't exist outside of the ways we cohere them. Thus, the meta-ethic is substantive moral naturalism.
That outweighs on moral disagreement – ethics are regressive in principle since controversy prevents acting on moral laws. Prefer naturalism since there is no philosophical controversy on the correlation between moral facts and natural facts. Pleasure is an intrinsic good.
Moen 16 Ole Martin, PhD, Research Fellow in Philosophy at the University of Oslo. "An Argument for Hedonism." Journal of Value Inquiry 50(2). 2016. https://www.academia.edu/26656561/_An_Argument_for_Hedonism_by_Ole_Martin_Moen. PeteZ Let us start by observing, empirically, that a widely shared judgment about intrinsic AND places where we reach the end of the line in matters of value.
Thus, moral naturalism prima facie justifies hedonism through naturalism, empirical facts that are explained and physically verified from science should be used which only a theory of pain and pleasure can provide since there is a psychological grounding for why they are good and bad. Thus, the standard is consistency with hedonic act utilitarianism
1AC: Plan
Plan - Private entities ought not appropriate lunar heritage sites
Harrington 19, Andrea J. "Preserving Humanity's Heritage in Space: Fifty Years after Apollo 11 and beyond." J. Air L. and Com. 84 (2019): 299. (Associate Professor and Director of the Schriever Space Scholars at USAF Air Command and Staff College)Elmer The issue of humanity's cultural heritage in space has arisen as one of many unanswered AND destruction, loss, or private appropriation of our cultural heritage in space.
1AC: Lunar Heritage v3
The Advantage is Lunar Heritage:
Global Moon Rush by private actors is coming now.
Sample 19 Ian Sample 7-19-2019 "Apollo 11 site should be granted heritage status, says space agency boss" https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/19/apollo-11-site-heritage-status-space-agency-moon (PhD at Queens Mary College)Elmer But protecting lunar heritage may not be straightforward. On Earth, the United Nations AND artefacts that will undoubtedly sell for tremendous amounts of money here on Earth."
Corporate development, tourism, and looting will destroy scientifically rich Tranquility base artifacts.
Fessl 19 Sophie Fessl 7-10-2019 "Should the Moon Landing Site Be a National Historic Landmark?" https://daily.jstor.org/should-the-moon-landing-site-be-a-national-historic-landmark/ (PhD King's College London, BA Oxford)Elmer When Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon on July 20, 1969, the AND that's on the moon was affected by a decades-long stay there.
Private entities are a unique threat—-universal rules key.
Private Key Card – AT: Alt Causes AT: Unilat CP AT: Adv CP AT: Generic DA AT: OST DA
AND , commerce, and the use of the Moon and other celestial bodies.
Heritage Sites are critical for science research around Dust.
OSTP 18 Office of Science and Technology Policy March 2018 "PROTECTING and PRESERVING APOLLO PROGRAM LUNAR LANDING SITES and ARTIFACTS" (The Office of Science and Technology Policy is a department of the United States government, part of the Executive Office of the President, established by United States Congress on May 11, 1976, with a broad mandate to advise the President on the effects of science and technology on domestic and international affairs.)Elmer The Moon continues to hold great significance around the world. The successes of the AND to establish their appearance and condition at the time they were left behind.
Ding et al. 17 (, Y., Liu, G. and Guo, H., 2017. Moon-based Earth observation: scientific concept and potential applications. ~online~ Volume 11, 2018. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2017.1356879 ~Accessed 22 January 2022~ Yixing Ding - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China Guang Liu - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China Huadong Guo - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China.)-rahulpenu 4. Scientific goal of moon-based earth observation A basic question for moon AND numerical simulations are indispensable to validate the proposals and to address specific problems.
Moon Base is the only option and outweighs Satellites.
Ding et al. 17 (, Y., Liu, G. and Guo, H., 2017. Moon-based Earth observation: scientific concept and potential applications. ~online~ Volume 11, 2018. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2017.1356879 ~Accessed 22 January 2022~ Yixing Ding - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China Guang Liu - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China Huadong Guo - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China.) There are several characteristics of Moon-based Earth observation as listed below. ( AND target in measuring the altitude of sea surface and the thickness of vegetation.
Rood and Gibbons 21 Richard B. Rood and Elizabeth Gibbons 9-11-2021 "After a summer of weather horrors, adapting to climate change is an imperative" https://archive.is/VKac8~~#selection-391.0-413.1 (Richard B. (Ricky) Rood is a professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan. Elizabeth (Beth) Gibbons is executive director of the American Society of Adaptation Professionals.)Elmer This summer, the extraordinary heat in the Pacific Northwest, floods across the Northern AND we assert, will make the need for mitigation more real and urgent.
Earth's Atmosphere limits Neutrino Research – only a Moon base solves.
Crawford 12, I. A., et al. "Back to the Moon: The scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration." Planetary and Space Science 74.1 (2012): 3-14. (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Birkbeck College)Elmer A natural area to use the Moon as a platform for performing scientific experiments is AND and Zaldariaga 2004) would indeed be on the lunar far-side.
The Moon is key for Neutrino Research – would be involved in any return to the Moon.
Wilson 92, T. L. "Neutrino Astronomy of the Moon."Â Lunar and Planetary Science Conference. Vol. 23. 1992. https://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc1992/pdf/1757.pdf (Thomas L. Wilson, NASA Johnson Space CenterISN1)Elmer The notion of conducting neutrino astronomy on the Moon has had a very brief history AND neutrinos ~17, 181 as another interesting astrophysical source are not presented.
Neutrino Research key to Nuclear Detection that deters Proliferation – key to determine military usages.
Lee 20 Thomas Lee "Can tiny, invisible particles help stop the spread of nuclear weapons?" https://engineering.berkeley.edu/news/2020/03/can-tiny-invisible-particles-help-stop-the-spread-of-nuclear-weapons/ (Associate Adjunct Professor, Research Scientist Operations and IT Management.)Elmer The key to preventing nuclear proliferation may depend on a little bit of ghost hunting AND reality could prove to be a powerful deterrent to nuclear proliferation in itself.
Proliferation risks unravelling now due to inability to determine peaceful and military nuclear development.
Dalton and Levite 22 Toby Dalton and Ariel Levite 1-13-2022 "The Nonproliferation Regime is Breaking" https://archive.is/MQ4sC~~#selection-1881.0-1917.304 (TOBY DALTON is Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ARIEL (ELI) LEVITE is Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program and Cyber Policy Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.)Elmer The global system to prevent nuclear proliferation and promote disarmament is beginning to fray. AND now more easily hide their ambitions—and progress—in plain sight.
Nuclear Proliferation causes Nuclear War.
Kroenig 15 (Matthew Kroenig; Associate Professor and International Relations Field Chair in the Department of Government and School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University; 2015, "The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have a Future?"; Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 38, Issue 1-2)Re-cut by Elmer The spread of nuclear weapons poses at least six severe threats to international peace and AND , any one of those crises could result in a catastrophic nuclear exchange.
Nuke war causes extinction AND outweighs other existential risks
PND 16. internally citing Zbigniew Brzezinski, Council of Foreign Relations and former national security adviser to President Carter, Toon and Robock's 2012 study on nuclear winter in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Gareth Evans' International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Report, Congressional EMP studies, studies on nuclear winter by Seth Baum of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Martin Hellman of Stanford University, and U.S. and Russian former Defense Secretaries and former heads of nuclear missile forces, brief submitted to the United Nations General Assembly, Open-Ended Working Group on nuclear risks. A/AC.286/NGO/13. 05-03-2016. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/OEWG/2016/Documents/NGO13.pdfRe-cut by Elmer Consequences human survival 12. Even if the 'other' side does NOT launch in response AND course the immediate post-nuclear results for Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well.
1/28/22
JF - Lunar Heritage v2
Tournament: Barkley Forum | Round: 3 | Opponent: Immaculate Heart AW | Judge: Cale McCrary cites down again, sorry check open source please
if you want to cite box this and send it to me I would appreciate it
1/28/22
JF - Lunar Heritage v3
Tournament: Barkley Forum | Round: 5 | Opponent: Strake Jesuit KS | Judge: Jeffrey Swift cites are down sorry
Plan - Private entities ought not appropriate lunar heritage sites in outer space.
Harrington 19, Andrea J. "Preserving Humanity's Heritage in Space: Fifty Years after Apollo 11 and beyond." J. Air L. and Com. 84 (2019): 299. (Associate Professor and Director of the Schriever Space Scholars at USAF Air Command and Staff College)Elmer The issue of humanity's cultural heritage in space has arisen as one of many unanswered AND destruction, loss, or private appropriation of our cultural heritage in space.
1AC: ADV
The Advantage is Lunar Heritage:
Global Moon Rush by private actors is coming now.
Sample 19 Ian Sample 7-19-2019 "Apollo 11 site should be granted heritage status, says space agency boss" https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/19/apollo-11-site-heritage-status-space-agency-moon (PhD at Queens Mary College)Elmer But protecting lunar heritage may not be straightforward. On Earth, the United Nations AND artefacts that will undoubtedly sell for tremendous amounts of money here on Earth."
Corporate development, tourism, and looting will destroy scientifically rich Tranquility base artifacts.
Fessl 19 Sophie Fessl 7-10-2019 "Should the Moon Landing Site Be a National Historic Landmark?" https://daily.jstor.org/should-the-moon-landing-site-be-a-national-historic-landmark/ (PhD King's College London, BA Oxford)Elmer When Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon on July 20, 1969, the AND that's on the moon was affected by a decades-long stay there.
Private entities are a unique threat—-universal rules key.
Private Key Card – AT: Alt Causes AT: Unilat CP AT: Adv CP AT: Generic DA AT: OST DA
AND , commerce, and the use of the Moon and other celestial bodies.
Heritage Sites are critical for science research around Dust.
OSTP 18 Office of Science and Technology Policy March 2018 "PROTECTING and PRESERVING APOLLO PROGRAM LUNAR LANDING SITES and ARTIFACTS" (The Office of Science and Technology Policy is a department of the United States government, part of the Executive Office of the President, established by United States Congress on May 11, 1976, with a broad mandate to advise the President on the effects of science and technology on domestic and international affairs.)Elmer The Moon continues to hold great significance around the world. The successes of the AND to establish their appearance and condition at the time they were left behind.
Research for a moon base is coming now but preservation of the environment is key.
Shekhtman 21 ~Lonnie Shekhtman, Lonnie is a senior science writer for Nasa. She 1-26-2021, "NASA's Artemis Base Camp on the Moon Will Need Light, Water, Elevation," https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/nasa-s-artemis-base-camp-on-the-moon-will-need-light-water-elevation/ accessed 2/12/22~ Adam American astronauts in 2024 will take their first steps near the Moon's South Pole: AND samples of the far side from their base camp on the near side.
Lunar observatory solves warming adaptation.
Ding et al. 17 (, Y., Liu, G. and Guo, H., 2017. Moon-based Earth observation: scientific concept and potential applications. ~online~ Volume 11, 2018. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2017.1356879 ~Accessed 22 January 2022~ Yixing Ding - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China Guang Liu - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China Huadong Guo - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China.)-rahulpenu 4. Scientific goal of moon-based earth observation A basic question for moon AND numerical simulations are indispensable to validate the proposals and to address specific problems.
Moon Base is the only option and outweighs Satellites.
Ding et al. 17 (, Y., Liu, G. and Guo, H., 2017. Moon-based Earth observation: scientific concept and potential applications. ~online~ Volume 11, 2018. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2017.1356879 ~Accessed 22 January 2022~ Yixing Ding - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China Guang Liu - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China Huadong Guo - Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China.) There are several characteristics of Moon-based Earth observation as listed below. ( AND target in measuring the altitude of sea surface and the thickness of vegetation.
Rood and Gibbons 21 Richard B. Rood and Elizabeth Gibbons 9-11-2021 "After a summer of weather horrors, adapting to climate change is an imperative" https://archive.is/VKac8~~#selection-391.0-413.1 (Richard B. (Ricky) Rood is a professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan. Elizabeth (Beth) Gibbons is executive director of the American Society of Adaptation Professionals.)Elmer This summer, the extraordinary heat in the Pacific Northwest, floods across the Northern AND we assert, will make the need for mitigation more real and urgent.
Earth's Atmosphere limits Neutrino Research – only a Moon base solves.
Crawford 12, I. A., et al. "Back to the Moon: The scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration." Planetary and Space Science 74.1 (2012): 3-14. (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Birkbeck College)Elmer A natural area to use the Moon as a platform for performing scientific experiments is AND and Zaldariaga 2004) would indeed be on the lunar far-side.
The Moon is key for Neutrino Research – would be involved in any return to the Moon.
Wilson 92, T. L. "Neutrino Astronomy of the Moon." Lunar and Planetary Science Conference. Vol. 23. 1992. https://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc1992/pdf/1757.pdf (Thomas L. Wilson, NASA Johnson Space CenterISN1)Elmer The notion of conducting neutrino astronomy on the Moon has had a very brief history AND neutrinos ~17, 181 as another interesting astrophysical source are not presented.
Neutrino Research key to Nuclear Detection that deters Proliferation – key to determine military usages.
Lee 20 Thomas Lee "Can tiny, invisible particles help stop the spread of nuclear weapons?" https://engineering.berkeley.edu/news/2020/03/can-tiny-invisible-particles-help-stop-the-spread-of-nuclear-weapons/ (Associate Adjunct Professor, Research Scientist Operations and IT Management.)Elmer The key to preventing nuclear proliferation may depend on a little bit of ghost hunting AND reality could prove to be a powerful deterrent to nuclear proliferation in itself.
Proliferation risks unravelling now due to inability to determine peaceful and military nuclear development.
Dalton and Levite 22 Toby Dalton and Ariel Levite 1-13-2022 "The Nonproliferation Regime is Breaking" https://archive.is/MQ4sC~~#selection-1881.0-1917.304 (TOBY DALTON is Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ARIEL (ELI) LEVITE is Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program and Cyber Policy Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.)Elmer The global system to prevent nuclear proliferation and promote disarmament is beginning to fray. AND now more easily hide their ambitions—and progress—in plain sight.
Nuclear Proliferation causes Nuclear War.
Kroenig 15 (Matthew Kroenig; Associate Professor and International Relations Field Chair in the Department of Government and School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University; 2015, "The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have a Future?"; Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 38, Issue 1-2)Re-cut by Elmer The spread of nuclear weapons poses at least six severe threats to international peace and AND , any one of those crises could result in a catastrophic nuclear exchange.
Nuke war causes extinction AND outweighs other existential risks
PND 16. internally citing Zbigniew Brzezinski, Council of Foreign Relations and former national security adviser to President Carter, Toon and Robock's 2012 study on nuclear winter in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Gareth Evans' International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Report, Congressional EMP studies, studies on nuclear winter by Seth Baum of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Martin Hellman of Stanford University, and U.S. and Russian former Defense Secretaries and former heads of nuclear missile forces, brief submitted to the United Nations General Assembly, Open-Ended Working Group on nuclear risks. A/AC.286/NGO/13. 05-03-2016. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/OEWG/2016/Documents/NGO13.pdfRe-cut by Elmer Consequences human survival 12. Even if the 'other' side does NOT launch in response AND course the immediate post-nuclear results for Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well.
2/20/22
JF - Lunar Heritage v5
Tournament: TOC | Round: 2 | Opponent: Edgemont AA | Judge: Bennett Dombcik Cites down rn but its opensourced sorry
4/23/22
JF - Lunar Heritage v5
Tournament: TOC | Round: 2 | Opponent: Edgemont AA | Judge: Bennett Dombcik Cites down rn but its opensourced sorry
Welcome to the simulacrum of learning, an educational hall of mirrors in which all forms of knowledge are diluted to the point of non-recognition – once a site for the holistic development of the human psyche, education has reduced to a banal and homogenous machine in which all individuals are molded into passive, hyper-rational actors – this tragic process of standardization strips all classrooms of education, students of learning, and teachers of teaching, leaving a rotting carcass of knowledge where the university once stood
Rankin 16. William, explorer in emerging pedagogies and mobile learning activist, 9/11, "Beyond Modern Education: Simulacra and Simulation," https://unfoldlearning.net/2016/09/11/beyond-modern-education-2/ RECUT CHO "The real is produced from miniaturized cells, matrices, and memory banks, AND new kind of language — a new form of signification — to succeed.
It is through this precession of codification that the Code arises as a system of signification – a mode of social organization premised upon the erasure of symbolic exchange in favor of absolute transparency within the socius. Within the code, all difference is decided, reduced to information, and exchanged seamlessly as the very texture of being is eradicated from the body
Pawlett 13. William Pawlett, senior lecturer in media, communications, and cultural studies at the University of Wolverhampton, UK, Violence, Society and Radical Theory : Bataille, Baudrillard and Contemporary Society, pg. 132 RECUT CHO Baudrillard on Hatred and Difference In recent sociological literature, hatred is understood as the AND be indifferent to the other because it is through indifference that we tolerate.
Modern academia is grounded in the drive toward rationality contingent on the total transparency of the self and outside world, feeding the global fantasy of efficient communication and subject formation contingent on the complete eradication of radical alterity. This nature demands instead a fatal strategy, a conceptual suicide that pushes the logic of the system to the point of systemic implosion
Hoofd 10. Assistant Professor in the Communications and New Media Programme at the National University of Singapore, "The accelerated university: Activist-academic alliances and simulation of thought," Ephemera Journal, vol. 10 no. 1 Recut CHO But far from an 'a-disciplinary self-constitution' that supposedly overcomes any AND activist-research projects hopefully invite alterity can thankfully not yet be thought.
The role of debaters is to engage in hyperconformity – the only option is a radical mimicry of the forms of the system, accelerating them to the point of their obvious vacuity, proving the limit point of the system is paradoxically its own elimination. We affirm this strategy of duality and reversibility in a moment of semiotic rupture, maintaining the possibility of mystery and radical alterity
Pawlett 14. William Pawlett, senior lecturer in media, communications, and cultural studies at the University of Wolverhampton, UK, "Society At War With Itself," International Journal of Baudrillard Studies, Volume 11, Number 2 (May, 2014) Recut CHO It all depends on the ground we choose to fight on … most often … AND outsides because it was, in a sense, created from the outside.
Evaluate the aff as a response to the call of the topic as an act of mystery – by passionately playing the game, we can effectively parody the System.
Gerry Coulter 7, sociology at Bishop's University in Sherbrooke, Canada. He is the founding editor of the International Journal of Baudrillard Studies, '7 "Jean Baudrillard And The Definitive Ambivalence Of Gaming," Games and Culture, October 2007, Vol. 2, No. 4, p. 358-365, http://insomnia.ac/essays/baudrillard_on_gaming/ SLHS-RR Recut CHO The game comes from nowhere – "radical alterity" – idea of being something AND that our very passion for games and rules parodies all ideologies of liberty.
~1~ The existence of extrinsic goodness requires unconditional human worth – when someone makes a decision, they presuppose the goodness of that action. However, the source of that goodness cannot be temporal desires because those are conditional – thus, the rational will must be the unconditional source of value – we must treat others as ends in themselves because all agents can create value.
~2~ Performativity—freedom is the key to the process of justification of arguments. Willing that we should abide by their ethical theory presupposes that we own ourselves in the first place. Thus, it is logically incoherent to justify a standard without first willing that we can pursue ends free from others.
~3~ Regress – other theories result in a regress—they generate requirements conditional on some further principle, which must itself be derived. The AC framework escapes this because it is derivable from the concept of an unconditional law in general.
~4~ Self-ownership is the only conceptually coherent principle – either a group owns others which is repugnant or everyone owns everyone which is infinitely regressive because to act requires permission but the act of giving permission requires permission.
Property is bad
2/4/22
JF - Pragmatic Deliberation v1
Tournament: Strake | Round: 1 | Opponent: Memorial DX | Judge: Angela Zhong Cites are not working, I'm getting some 4 digit error code
12/18/21
JF - Pragmatic Deliberation v2
Tournament: Strake | Round: 5 | Opponent: West HS SLC ML | Judge: Phoenix Pittman
The Meta-Ethic is Moral Pluralism; Clashing viewpoints does not require the
exclusion of one over another but instead the acceptance that both can be valuable ethical tools. Prefer
1~ There are infinite worlds, the aff is logical in one which is sufficient.
Vaidman 2 Vaidman, Lev, 3-24-2002, "Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)," No Publication, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/ -MWI: Multiple Worlds Interpretation The reason for adopting the MWI is that AND There is no experimental evidence in favor of collapse and against the MWI.
2~ Dogmatism Paradox
Sorensen Sorensen, Roy, Professor of Philosophy at Washington University in St. Louis. "Epistemic Paradoxes." Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 21 June 2006. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemic-paradoxes/. PeteZ Saul Kripke's ruminations on the surprise test paradox led him to a paradox about dogmatism AND future evidence that seems to tell against h. (1973, 148)
Negative arguments presuppose the aff being true since they begin with a descriptive premise about the affirmative such as the aff does x, and then justify why x is bad. However, if the aff does not have truth value, that entails the descriptive premise would also not have truth value, which is contradictory.
3~ Vote aff because it's simple – evaluating responses to this is complicated so don't
Baker 04' ~Baker, Alan, 10-29-2004, "Simplicity (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)," https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/simplicity/~~ With respect to question (ii), there is an important distinction to be made AND simplicity principle can be found in the quotations given earlier in this section.
8~ Decision Making Paradox- in order to judge we need a decision-making procedure to determine it is a good decision. But to chose a decision-making procedure requires another meta level decision making procedure leading to infinite regress so just vote aff to break the paradox.
9~ Liar's Paradox – the resolution is always true
Camus ~Albert Camus (existentialist). "The Myth of Sisyphus." Penguin Books. 1975(originally published 1942). Accessed 12/11/19. Pg 22. Copy on hand. Houston Memorial DX~ The mind's first step is to distinguish what is true from what is false. AND assertion proclaims simultaneously that it is true, and so on ad infinitum."
====Only an agonistic deliberative model accepts ongoing confrontation as legitimate rather than oppositional. Thus, the standard is promoting agonistic deliberation.====
Additionally prefer
1~ Performativity- Responding to our framework concedes the validity of agonism since that in and of itself is a process of contestation that agonism would say is valuable and necessary for spaces like debate to function.
2~ TJFS- A~ Inclusion – Agonism definitionally is a procedural for allowing almost any argumentation in the debate space which controls the internal link to inclusion which is an impact multiplier B~ Resource Disparities- Discursive frameworks ensure big squads don't have a comparative advantage since debates become about quality of arguments rather than quantity and require a higher level of analytic thinking that small schools have.
3~ Value – procedural decisions have infinite value because they allow agents to take steps to reduce harms under any index. To shut down an avenue for pragmatic discourse necessitates foreclosing all possible decisions in that situation except a static theory we can't change. Kills the net most value – alternative theories with massive impacts can't be considered.
4~ Value Pluralism- Other ethical theories rely on minimalistic criteria as their foundation, our framework resolves this by using these criteria to better inform our judgments
5~ Rule Following Paradox- There is nothing inherent to a rule that tells us how we ought to follow it, regardless of how correct the rule is. Only deliberation accounts for the diversity of interpretations of our norms.
====6~ Resolves Skepticism- a) Discussion between many bodies means that moral uncertainty can be deliberated and resolved. ====
b) Truth only makes sense in groups of people so only they can prescribe action
7~ Negating affirms because it assumes that the 1ac is a statement that is worthy of contestation which means are arguments are legitimate.
1AC – Offense
The negative and I affirm the resolution Resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust. CX checks all spec interps.
Resolved is defined as firm in purpose or intent; determined and I'm determined.
Affirm means to express agreement and you already know I do.
1~ The appropriation of space by private entities isn't value neutral but is sutured in a discourse of the cosmic elite and unequal IR.
Stockwell 20 ~Samuel Stockwell (Research Project Manager, the Annenberg Institute at Brown University). "Legal 'Black Holes' in Outer Space: The Regulation of Private Space Companies". E-International Relations. Jul 20 2020. Accessed 12/7/21. https://www.e-ir.info/2020/07/20/legal-black-holes-in-outer-space-the-regulation-of-private-space-companies/Xu~ The US government's support for private space companies is also likely to lead to the AND private shareholders at the expense of the vast majority of the global population.
2~ Appropriation intrinsically guts deliberative procedures since it denies the owner's permission for property rights, blocking one possible experience/form of communication from other groups since it guts communal approaches
The Meta-Ethic is Moral Pluralism; Clashing viewpoints does not require the
exclusion of one over another but instead the acceptance that both can be valuable ethical tools. Prefer
1~ There are infinite worlds, the aff is logical in one which is sufficient.
Vaidman 2 Vaidman, Lev, 3-24-2002, "Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)," No Publication, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/ -MWI: Multiple Worlds Interpretation The reason for adopting the MWI is that AND There is no experimental evidence in favor of collapse and against the MWI.
2~ Dogmatism Paradox
Sorensen Sorensen, Roy, Professor of Philosophy at Washington University in St. Louis. "Epistemic Paradoxes." Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 21 June 2006. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemic-paradoxes/. PeteZ Saul Kripke's ruminations on the surprise test paradox led him to a paradox about dogmatism AND future evidence that seems to tell against h. (1973, 148)
Negative arguments presuppose the aff being true since they begin with a descriptive premise about the affirmative such as the aff does x, and then justify why x is bad. However, if the aff does not have truth value, that entails the descriptive premise would also not have truth value, which is contradictory.
3~ Empirics- Quantum superposition proves different ethics can exist simultaneously.
4~ Decision Making Paradox- in order to judge we need a decision-making procedure to determine it is a good decision. But to chose a decision-making procedure requires another meta level decision making procedure leading to infinite regress so just vote aff to break the paradox.
====Only an agonistic deliberative model accepts ongoing confrontation as legitimate rather than oppositional. Thus, the standard is promoting agonistic deliberation.====
5~ GCB- I am the greatest conceivable being so vote for me because I am infinitely good. To prove this, I will make them contest the aff and say they are not under my control.
Additionally prefer
1~ Performativity- Responding to our framework concedes the validity of agonism since that in and of itself is a process of contestation that agonism would say is valuable and necessary for spaces like debate to function.
2~ TJFS- A~ Inclusion – Agonism definitionally is a procedural for allowing almost any argumentation in the debate space which controls the internal link to inclusion which is an impact multiplier B~ Resource Disparities- Discursive frameworks ensure big squads don't have a comparative advantage since debates become about quality of arguments rather than quantity and require a higher level of analytic thinking that small schools have.
3~ Value Pluralism- Other ethical theories rely on minimalistic criteria as their foundation, our framework resolves this by using these criteria to better inform our judgments
====4~ Resolves Skepticism- a) Discussion between many bodies means that moral uncertainty can be deliberated and resolved. b) Truth only makes sense in groups of people so only they can prescribe action ====
5~ Negating affirms because it assumes that the 1ac is a statement that is worthy of contestation which means are arguments are legitimate.
1AC – Offense
The negative and I affirm the resolution Resolved: The appropriation of outer space by private entities is unjust. CX checks all spec interps.
Resolved is defined as firm in purpose or intent; determined and I'm determined.
Affirm means to express agreement and you already know I do.
1~ The appropriation of space by private entities isn't value neutral but is sutured in a discourse of the cosmic elite and unequal IR.
Stockwell 20 ~Samuel Stockwell (Research Project Manager, the Annenberg Institute at Brown University). "Legal 'Black Holes' in Outer Space: The Regulation of Private Space Companies". E-International Relations. Jul 20 2020. Accessed 12/7/21. https://www.e-ir.info/2020/07/20/legal-black-holes-in-outer-space-the-regulation-of-private-space-companies/Xu~ The US government's support for private space companies is also likely to lead to the AND private shareholders at the expense of the vast majority of the global population.
2~ Appropriation intrinsically guts deliberative procedures since it denies the owner's permission for property rights, blocking one possible experience/form of communication from other groups since it guts communal approaches
Tournament: TFA State | Round: 3 | Opponent: Vandeg Donovan Dickerson | Judge: Vincent Liu cites down weird character
3/10/22
ND - China v1
Tournament: Blue Key RR | Round: 2 | Opponent: Southlake Carroll EP | Judge: Panel
1AC: Plan
Plan – The People's Republic of China ought to recognize an unconditional right of workers to strike.
That solves worker liberation, labor reforms, and re-establishes credible Collective Bargaining in China – establishing legal protection for Labor Unions reduces overall labor-related discontent.
Dongfang 11 Han Dongfang 4-6-2011 "Liberate China's Workers" https://archive.md/7RvDG~~#selection-307.0-316.0 (director of China Labour Bulletin, a nongovernmental organization that defends the rights of workers in China.)Elmer HONG KONG — There is no legal right to strike in China, but there AND Communist Party's goal of creating a more prosperous, stable and harmonious society.
1AC: Soft Power Advantage
Lack of Chinese Right to Strike devastates Collective Bargaining – undermines any legal leverage for Strikes.
Friedman 17 Eli Friedman 4-20-2017 "Collective Bargaining in China is Dead: The Situation is Excellent" https://www.chinoiresie.info/collective-bargaining-in-china-is-dead-the-situation-is-excellent/ (Assistant Professor of International and Comparative Labour at Cornell University)Elmer For many years reform-oriented labour activists and scholars working in China have seen AND will be the necessary prelude to any institutional reform worthy of the name.
Any credible union power is under-cut by detentions of labor activists.
Merkley and McGovern 13 Jeff Merkley and James McGovern 12-20-2013 "Detention of Labor Representative Highlights Challenges for Collective Bargaining in China" https://www.cecc.gov/publications/commission-analysis/detention-of-labor-representative-highlights-challenges-for (Representative and Co-Chair of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China)Elmer Authorities in Shenzhen city, Guangdong province, detained migrant worker and labor representative Wu AND the "effective recognition" of the right to collective bargaining.~16~
The Right to Strike re-balances China's Economy.
Roberts 10 Dexter Roberts 8-5-2010 "Is the Right to Strike Coming to China" https://archive.md/hjNI7 (Editor at Bloomberg)Elmer The name gives no hint of the revolutionary changes afoot for mainland workers. Yet AND being debated in Guangdong could greatly strengthen the bargaining power of Chinese workers.
Enhanced Unions and Labor Reforms key to sustained Chinese Economic Growth.
Haack 21 Michael Haack 2-13-2021 "Could Biden Make US-China Trade Better for Workers?" https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/could-biden-make-us-china-trade-better-for-workers/ (Michael Haack currently a contractor with the China Labor Translation Project, a project of the Chinese Progressive Association. He previously worked with industrial workers in southern China. Michael holds master's degrees from SOAS, University of London and American University)Elmer Meanwhile, even as China grows, its wealth remains largely with companies and the AND unions were allowed to flourish — thus advancing their own stated policy aims."
China's Economy is hosed and threatened by rampant Inequality gaps that devastate consumption.
That's critical for Soft Power Projection BUT authoritarianism regarding activists puts efforts on the brink – re-establishing credibility of governance is important.
Albert 18 Eleanor Albert 2-9-2018 "China's Big Bet on Soft Power" https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-big-bet-soft-power (a third-year PhD student concentrating in international relations and comparative politics)Elmer China is a powerful international actor as the world's most populous country and its second AND nations so long as it muzzles its best advocates," writes the Economist.
Chinese Economic Decline leads to all-out War – specifically over Taiwan.
Joske 18 Stephen Joske 10-23-2018 "China's Coming Financial Crisis And The National Security Connection" https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/chinas-coming-financial-crisis-and-the-national-security-connection/ (senior adviser to the Australian Treasurer during the 1997–98 Asian crisis)re-cut by Elmer The biggest national security issues, however, arise from the unpredictable political impact of AND stall or even end China's rise as a global military and political power.
Taiwan goes Nuclear.
Talmadge 18 ~Caitlin, Associate Professor of Security Studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, "Beijing's Nuclear Option: Why a U.S.-China War Could Spiral Out of Control," accessible online at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-10-15/beijings-nuclear-option, published Nov/Dec 2018~re-cut by Elmer As China's power has grown in recent years, so, too, has the AND have considered unthinkable only months earlier. This pattern could unfold again today.
Nuke war causes extinction AND outweighs other existential risks
Checked PND 16. internally citing Zbigniew Brzezinski, Council of Foreign Relations and former national security adviser to President Carter, Toon and Robock's 2012 study on nuclear winter in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Gareth Evans' International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Report, Congressional EMP studies, studies on nuclear winter by Seth Baum of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Martin Hellman of Stanford University, and U.S. and Russian former Defense Secretaries and former heads of nuclear missile forces, brief submitted to the United Nations General Assembly, Open-Ended Working Group on nuclear risks. A/AC.286/NGO/13. 05-03-2016. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/OEWG/2016/Documents/NGO13.pdfRe-cut by Elmer Consequences human survival 12. Even if the 'other' side does NOT launch in response AND course the immediate post-nuclear results for Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well.
Chinese Economic Strength increases Economic Diplomacy Efforts, specifically OBOR, AND decreases need for Military Expansion.
Cai 18, Kevin G. "The one belt one road and the Asian infrastructure investment bank: Beijing's new strategy of geoeconomics and geopolitics." Journal of Contemporary China 27.114 (2018): 831-847. (Associate Professor at Renison University College, University of Waterloo, Canada)Elmer Fourthly, the OBOR and the AIIB were launched by Beijing as a diplomatic and AND broader sense, the initiatives could help further strengthen Beijing's third world diplomacy.
Solves Central Asian and South Asia War.
Muhammad et Al 19, Imraz, Arif Khan, and Saif ul Islam. "China Pakistan Economic Corridor: Peace, Prosperity and Conflict Resolution in the Region." (Lecturer, Department of Political Science, University of Buner)Elmer In the twenty first century, the geostrategic importance of South Asia is rising because AND peace and stability in the region and secure the CPEC from insecurity.15
Central Asia Instability explodes globally
Blank 2k ~Stephen J. - Expert on the Soviet Bloc for the Strategic Studies Institute, "American Grand Strategy and the Transcaspian Region", World Affairs. 9-22~ Thus many structural conditions for conventional war or protracted ethnic conflict where third parties intervene AND 5) neither has willing proxies capable of settling the situation.(77)
Even a limited Indo-Pak war causes extinction.
Menon 19 Prakash Menon, The nuclear cloud hanging over the human race, Nov 15, 2019, ~PhD from Madras University for his thesis "Limited War and Nuclear Deterrence in the Indo-Pak context"~ https://www.telegraphindia.com/opinion/the-nuclear-cloud-hanging-over-the-human-race/cid/1719608~~# SM The nuclear cloud hanging over the human race Even a limited India-Pakistan nuclear AND for its incredibility and the utter stupidity of the use of nuclear weapons.
10/28/21
ND - China v2
Tournament: Blue Key RR | Round: 3 | Opponent: American Heritage SS | Judge: Panel Check the osource, im getting Error 4605 when I try to upload cites
Lobo 21 Darren Lobo 1-8-2021 "By prohibiting strikes, India's new labour codes will make employees powerless" https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/prohibiting-strikes-india-s-new-labour-codes-will-make-employees-powerless-141083 (Lawyer with experience in contract drafting, negotiation, general corporate advisory, private equity and venture capital work.)Elmer On December 12 last year, thousands of workers ransacked machinery worth crores at a AND bargaining process, not be brushed aside by an inveterate and insidious bureaucracy.
Loss of Strike Protection effects 90 of India's workers who work with little to no pay.
Stopping rampant inequality is key to long-term economic growth
Ghosh 10/21 ~Nilanjan Ghosh, Dr. Nilanjan Ghosh is Director, ORF's Kolkata Centre, and heads the Inclusive Growth and SDG programme across the various centres of the Foundation. His previous positions at various points in time include Senior Fellow and Head of Economics at ORF Kolkata, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at MCX (I) Limited in Mumbai, and Professor of Econometrics at the TERI School of Advanced Studies in New Delhi. He had been a Visiting Fellow at the Linnaeus University, Sweden, in 2008 and 2015, and has visited Uppsala University (Sweden), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA), and Stanford University (USA), at various points in time. One of the leading ecological economists and development analysts of south Asia, he is considered a pioneer in the application of neoclassical and heterodox economics in water governance. A natural resource economist and econometrician by training, Dr. Ghosh obtained his PhD from the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Calcutta. Till recently, Dr Ghosh advised WWF India for setting up their Ecological Economics practice. Dr. Ghosh was Vice President of The Indian Society for Ecological Economics (INSEE)"Is increasing wealth inequality coming in the way of economic growth in India?," ORF, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/is-increasing-wealth-inequality-coming-in-the-way-of-economic-growth-in-india/ Accessed 11/4/21~ Adam The Indian growth (or the lack of it on recent counts) story over AND rather than looking at development through the reductionist lens of economic growth only.
Economic collapse ensures Modi puts all his eggs in the nationalist basket - the COVID blame won't save him again.
Gupta 21 (, S., 2021. It isn't the economy, genius. India proves it by voting for Modi again and again. ~online~ ThePrint. Available at: https://theprint.in/national-interest/it-isnt-the-economy-genius-india-proves-it-by-voting-for-modi-again-and-again/633329/ ~Accessed 25 October 2021~ Shekhar Gupta is an Indian journalist and author. He is the founder and the current editor-in-chief of ThePrint. He is also a columnist for the Business Standard and pens a weekly column which appears every Saturday. He has had long stints at The Indian Express and India Today. Shekhar Gupta has received assorted awards: the 1985 Inlaks award for young journalist of the year,~10~ G. K. Reddy Award for Journalism,~11~ and the Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed Memorial Award for National Integration.~12~ He was awarded Padma Bhushan by the then UPA Government in 2009 for his contribution to journalism.~13~ Under his leadership, The Indian Express won the Vienna-based International Press Institute's Award for Outstanding Journalism in the Public Interest thrice: The first time for its coverage of the Gujarat riots of 2002, the second time for uncovering the Bihar flood relief scam in 2009 and the third time for its sustained investigation into the Malegaon and Modasa blasts of 2008 and the alleged role of extremists and organisations.~14~.)-rahulpenu It isn't the economy, genius. India proves it by voting for Modi again AND prefer to say at this point: It isn't the economy, genius.
Greenlights diversionary war - overwhelming evidence.
Humayun et al. 20 (, F., Walt, Quinn, Tatar, Katerji, Crabtree, Agrawal, Maqsood, Walt, Gao and Moody, 2020. After India's Skirmish With China, Is Pakistan Next?. ~online~ Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/29/india-skirmish-china-modi-pick-fight-pakistan/ ~Accessed 25 October 2021~ Yale University, Ph.D., Political Science 2022 Dissertation: "Democratic Institutions and International Crisis Behaviour" Committee: Steven I. Wilkinson (Yale), Alexandre Debs (Yale), Vipin Narang (MIT) Yale University, M.A., Political Science 2019 University of Cambridge, M.Phil, International Relations 2013 London School of Economics, B.Sc, International Relations and History 2011. Research is supported by the MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies, the Yale South Asian Studies Council, and International Security Studies at Yale)-rahulpenu After India's Skirmish With China, Is Pakistan Next? Looking to reinvigorate support at AND the taking, South Asia's next crisis may happen sooner than we expect.
Nuke war causes extinction AND outweighs other existential risks
PND 16. internally citing Zbigniew Brzezinski, Council of Foreign Relations and former national security adviser to President Carter, Toon and Robock's 2012 study on nuclear winter in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Gareth Evans' International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Report, Congressional EMP studies, studies on nuclear winter by Seth Baum of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Martin Hellman of Stanford University, and U.S. and Russian former Defense Secretaries and former heads of nuclear missile forces, brief submitted to the United Nations General Assembly, Open-Ended Working Group on nuclear risks. A/AC.286/NGO/13. 05-03-2016. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/OEWG/2016/Documents/NGO13.pdfRe-cut by Elmer Consequences human survival 12. Even if the 'other' side does NOT launch in response AND course the immediate post-nuclear results for Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well.
Lobo 21 Darren Lobo 1-8-2021 "By prohibiting strikes, India's new labour codes will make employees powerless" https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/prohibiting-strikes-india-s-new-labour-codes-will-make-employees-powerless-141083 (Lawyer with experience in contract drafting, negotiation, general corporate advisory, private equity and venture capital work.)Elmer On December 12 last year, thousands of workers ransacked machinery worth crores at a AND bargaining process, not be brushed aside by an inveterate and insidious bureaucracy.
Loss of Strike Protection effects 90 of India's workers who work with little to no pay.
Stopping rampant inequality is key to long-term economic growth
Ghosh 10/21 ~Nilanjan Ghosh, Dr. Nilanjan Ghosh is Director, ORF's Kolkata Centre, and heads the Inclusive Growth and SDG programme across the various centres of the Foundation. His previous positions at various points in time include Senior Fellow and Head of Economics at ORF Kolkata, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at MCX (I) Limited in Mumbai, and Professor of Econometrics at the TERI School of Advanced Studies in New Delhi. He had been a Visiting Fellow at the Linnaeus University, Sweden, in 2008 and 2015, and has visited Uppsala University (Sweden), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA), and Stanford University (USA), at various points in time. One of the leading ecological economists and development analysts of south Asia, he is considered a pioneer in the application of neoclassical and heterodox economics in water governance. A natural resource economist and econometrician by training, Dr. Ghosh obtained his PhD from the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Calcutta. Till recently, Dr Ghosh advised WWF India for setting up their Ecological Economics practice. Dr. Ghosh was Vice President of The Indian Society for Ecological Economics (INSEE)"Is increasing wealth inequality coming in the way of economic growth in India?," ORF, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/is-increasing-wealth-inequality-coming-in-the-way-of-economic-growth-in-india/ Accessed 11/4/21~ Adam The Indian growth (or the lack of it on recent counts) story over AND rather than looking at development through the reductionist lens of economic growth only.
Economic collapse ensures Modi puts all his eggs in the nationalist basket - the COVID blame won't save him again.
Gupta 21 (, S., 2021. It isn't the economy, genius. India proves it by voting for Modi again and again. ~online~ ThePrint. Available at: https://theprint.in/national-interest/it-isnt-the-economy-genius-india-proves-it-by-voting-for-modi-again-and-again/633329/ ~Accessed 25 October 2021~ Shekhar Gupta is an Indian journalist and author. He is the founder and the current editor-in-chief of ThePrint. He is also a columnist for the Business Standard and pens a weekly column which appears every Saturday. He has had long stints at The Indian Express and India Today. Shekhar Gupta has received assorted awards: the 1985 Inlaks award for young journalist of the year,~10~ G. K. Reddy Award for Journalism,~11~ and the Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed Memorial Award for National Integration.~12~ He was awarded Padma Bhushan by the then UPA Government in 2009 for his contribution to journalism.~13~ Under his leadership, The Indian Express won the Vienna-based International Press Institute's Award for Outstanding Journalism in the Public Interest thrice: The first time for its coverage of the Gujarat riots of 2002, the second time for uncovering the Bihar flood relief scam in 2009 and the third time for its sustained investigation into the Malegaon and Modasa blasts of 2008 and the alleged role of extremists and organisations.~14~.)-rahulpenu It isn't the economy, genius. India proves it by voting for Modi again AND prefer to say at this point: It isn't the economy, genius.
Greenlights diversionary war - overwhelming evidence.
Humayun et al. 20 (, F., Walt, Quinn, Tatar, Katerji, Crabtree, Agrawal, Maqsood, Walt, Gao and Moody, 2020. After India's Skirmish With China, Is Pakistan Next?. ~online~ Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/29/india-skirmish-china-modi-pick-fight-pakistan/ ~Accessed 25 October 2021~ Yale University, Ph.D., Political Science 2022 Dissertation: "Democratic Institutions and International Crisis Behaviour" Committee: Steven I. Wilkinson (Yale), Alexandre Debs (Yale), Vipin Narang (MIT) Yale University, M.A., Political Science 2019 University of Cambridge, M.Phil, International Relations 2013 London School of Economics, B.Sc, International Relations and History 2011. Research is supported by the MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies, the Yale South Asian Studies Council, and International Security Studies at Yale)-rahulpenu After India's Skirmish With China, Is Pakistan Next? Looking to reinvigorate support at AND the taking, South Asia's next crisis may happen sooner than we expect.
PND 16. internally citing Zbigniew Brzezinski, Council of Foreign Relations and former national security adviser to President Carter, Toon and Robock's 2012 study on nuclear winter in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Gareth Evans' International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Report, Congressional EMP studies, studies on nuclear winter by Seth Baum of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Martin Hellman of Stanford University, and U.S. and Russian former Defense Secretaries and former heads of nuclear missile forces, brief submitted to the United Nations General Assembly, Open-Ended Working Group on nuclear risks. A/AC.286/NGO/13. 05-03-2016. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/OEWG/2016/Documents/NGO13.pdfRe-cut by Elmer Consequences human survival 12. Even if the 'other' side does NOT launch in response AND course the immediate post-nuclear results for Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well.
11/24/21
SO - Evergreening v2
Tournament: Valley | Round: 2 | Opponent: Eagan AE | Judge: Nigel bruh its fuill texting
1AC R2 Valley
1AC: Framework
Moral realism must start by being mind-independent – realism wouldn't make sense if there were a plethora of moral truths contingent on the agent's cognitively predisposed capacity because then moral truths wouldn't exist outside of the ways we cohere them. Thus, the meta-ethic is substantive moral naturalism.
1. The argument from supervenience is true and coherently explains the metaphysical grounding of morality.
Lutz, Matthew and Lenman, James, "Moral Naturalism", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fall 2018 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), URL = https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2018/entries/naturalism-moral/.Massa The first argument against normative non-naturalism concerns normative supervenience. The normative supervenes AND think that moral properties, if they exist, must be natural properties.
Thus, moral naturalism prima facie justifies hedonism as the only ethical theory that can guide action. Naturalism demands empirical facts that are explained and physically verified from science which only a theory of pain and pleasure can provide since there is a psychological grounding for why they are good and bad. Thus, the standard is consistency with hedonic act utilitarianism.
1AC: Innovation
Advantage 1 is Innovation:
We are in an innovation crisis – new drugs are not being developed in favor of re-purposing old drugs to infinitely extend patent expiration.
Feldman 1 Robin Feldman 2-11-2019 "'One-and-done' for new drugs could cut patent thickets and boost generic competition" https://www.statnews.com/2019/02/11/drug-patent-protection-one-done/ (Arthur J. Goldberg Distinguished Professor of Law, Albert Abramson '54 Distinguished Professor of Law Chair, and Director of the Center for Innovation)SidK + Elmer Drug companies have brought great innovations to market. Society rewards innovation with patents, AND look for new things, not to recycle existing drugs for minimal benefit.
We control Uniqueness – 78 of New Drugs aren't innovative.
PFAD 21 Patients for Affordable Drugs 2-3-2021 "BIG PHARMA'S BIG LIE: THE TRUTH ABOUT INNOVATION and DRUG PRICES" https://patientsforaffordabledrugs.org/2021/02/03/innovation-report/ (a patient advocacy and lobbying organisation based in Washington, D.C. founded by David Mitchell who suffers from multiple myeloma. Ben Wakana is the executive director. It focuses on policies to lower drug prices.)Elmer The drug industry talks a lot about how reforms to lower prices threaten cutting- AND that delivers meaningful clinical benefit to patients — instead of repurposing old drugs.
The only major study confirms our Internal Link – Evergreening decimates competition by resulting in functional monopolies
Arnold Ventures 20 9-24-2020 "'Evergreening' Stunts Competition, Costs Consumers and Taxpayers" https://www.arnoldventures.org/stories/evergreening-stunts-competition-costs-consumers-and-taxpayers/ (Arnold Ventures is focused on evidence-based giving in a wide range of categories including: criminal justice, education, health care, and public finance)Elmer In 2011, Elsa Dixler was diagnosed with multiple myeloma. That August, she AND billions of dollars while increasing the incentives for pharmaceutical companies to achieve breakthroughs."
Reject Negative Turns – they're pharmaceutical lies – the Plan isn't anti-Patent, just pro-innovation – breaking down secondary patents is key.
AT Advantage CPs to solve Drug Prices Radhakrishnan 16 Priti Radhakrishnan 6-14-2016 "Pharma's secret weapon to keep drug prices high" https://www.statnews.com/2016/06/14/secondary-patent-gilead-sovaldi-harvoni/ (Priti Radhakrishnan is cofounder and director of the Initiative for Medicines, Access and Knowledge (I-MAK), a US-based nonprofit group of scientists and lawyers working globally to get people lifesaving medicines. Before founding I-MAK, she worked as a health attorney in the US, Switzerland, and India.)Elmer Skyrocketing drug prices are forcing states to take unprecedented measures to rein in health care AND are unmerited and that unjustly prolong companies' market power and prevent legitimate competition.
Only innovation now solves AMR super-bugs — timeframe's key.
Sobti 19 ~Dr. Navjot Kaur Sobti is an internal medicine resident physician at Dartmouth-Hitchcock-Medical Center/Dartmouth School of Medicine and a member of the ABC News Medical Unit. May 1, 2019. "Amid superbug crisis, scientists urge innovation". https://abcnews.go.com/Health/amidst-superbug-crisis-scientists-urge-innovation/story?id=62763415~~ Dhruv The United Nations has called antimicrobial resistance a "global crisis." With the rise in superbugs across the globe, common infections are becoming harder to treat, and lifesaving procedures riskier to perform. Drug-resistant infections result in about 700,000 deaths per year, with at least 230,000 of those deaths due to multidrug resistant tuberculosis, according to a groundbreaking report from the World Health Organization (WHO). Given that antibiotic resistance is present in every country, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) now represents a global health crisis, according to the UN, which has urged immediate, coordinated and global action to prevent a potentially devastating health and financial crisis. With the rising rates of AMR — including antivirals, antibiotics, and antifungals — estimates from the WHO show that AMR may cause 10 million deaths every year by 2050, send 24 million people into extreme poverty by 2030, and lead to a financial crisis as severe as the on the U.S. experienced in 2008. Antimicrobial resistance develops when germs like bacteria and fungi are able to "defeat the drugs designed to kill them," according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Through a biologic "survival of the fittest," germs that are not killed by antimicrobials and continue to grow. WHO explains that "poor infection control, inadequate sanitary conditions and inappropriate food handling encourage the spread" of AMR, which can lead to "superbugs." Those superbugs require powerful and oftentimes more expensive antimicrobials to treat. Examples of superbugs are far and wide, and can range from drug-resistant bacteria like Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus to fungi like Candida. These bugs can cause illnesses that range from pneumonia to urinary tract and sexually transmitted infections. According to the WHO, AMR has caused complications for nearly 500,000 people with tuberculosis, and a number of people with HIV and malaria. The people at the highest risk for AMR are those with chronic diseases, people living in nursing homes, hospitalized in the ICU or undergoing life-saving treatments such as organ transplantation and cancer therapy. These people often develop infections, which can become antimicrobial-resistant, rendering them difficult, if not impossible, to treat. (MORE: Melissa Rivers talks about her father's suicide with Dr. Jennifer Ashton) The CDC notes that "antibiotic resistance has the potential to affect people at any stage of life," including the "healthcare, veterinary, and agriculture industries, making it one of the world's most urgent public health problems." AMR can cause prolonged hospital stays, billions of dollars in healthcare costs, disability, and potentially, death. "The most important thing is to understand and embrace the interconnectedness of all of this," said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, in a recent interview with ABC News' Dr. Jennifer Ashton. It's not just our countries that are connected." Research has shown that superbugs like Candida auris "came from multiple places, at the same time. It wasn't just one organism that ~evolved~" in a single location, Redfield added. Given longstanding concerns about antimicrobial misuse leading to AMR, physicians have embraced a medical approach called antibiotic stewardship. This encourages physicians to carefully evaluate which antibiotic is most appropriate for their patient, and discontinue it once it is no longer medically needed. WHO has also highlighted that the inappropriate use of antimicrobials in agriculture — such as on farms and in animals — may be an underappreciated cause of AMR. Noting these trends, the WHO has urged for "coordinated action...to minimize the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance." It urges all countries to make national action plans, with a focus on the development of new antimicrobial medications, vaccines, and careful antimicrobial use. Redfield emphasized the importance of vaccination during the global superbug crisis, stating that "the only way we have to eliminate an infection is vaccination." He added that investing in innovation is key to solving the crisis. While WHO continues to advocate for superbug awareness, they warn that AMR has reversed "a century of progress in health." The WHO added that "the challenges of antimicrobial resistance" are "not insurmountable," and that coordinated action will "help to save millions of lives, preserve antimicrobials for generations to come and secure the future from drug-resistant diseases."
Amin 18 Tahir Amin 6-27-2018 "The problem with high drug prices isn't 'foreign freeloading,' it's the patent system" High drug prices caused by US patent system, not 'foreign freeloaders' (cnbc.com) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/25/high-drug-prices-caused-by-us-patent-system.html (co-founder of nonprofit I-MAK.org)Elmer 'Evergreening' Instead of going to new medicines, the study finds that 74 percent of new patents during the decade went to drugs that already existed. It found that 80 percent of the nearly 100 best-selling drugs extended their exclusivity protections at least once, and 50 percent extended their patents more than once—with the effect of prolonging the time before generics could reach the market as drug prices continued to rise. The strategy is called "evergreening": drug makers add on new patents to prolong a drug's exclusivity, even when the additions aren't fundamentally new, non-obvious, and useful as the law requires. One of the most expensive cancer drugs on the market, Revlimid®, is a case in point: priced at over $125,000 per year of treatment, Celgene has sought 105 patents on Revlimid®, many of which have been granted, extending its monopoly until the end of 2036. That gives the Revlimid® patent portfolio a lifespan of 40 years, which is being used to block or deter generic competitors from entering the market. But a recent I-MAK analysis finds that several of Celgene's patents are mere add-ons—not fundamentally new to deserve a patent. And because of the thicket of patents around Revlimid®, payers are projected to spend $45 billion in excess costs on that drug alone as compared to what they could be paying if generic competitors were to enter when the first patent expires in 2019. Meanwhile, Celgene is also among the pharmaceuticals that have been recently scolded by the FDA for refusing to share samples with generic makers so they can test their own products against the brands in order to attain FDA approval. In the absence of genuine competition in the U.S. prescription drug market, monopolies are yielding reckless pricing schemes and prohibitively expensive drugs for Americans (and people around the world) who need them. In 2015, for example, U.S. Senators Wyden and Grassley found after an 18-month bipartisan investigation that the notorious $84,000 price tag for the hepatitis C drug made by Gilead was based on "a pricing and marketing strategy designed to maximize revenue with little concern for access or affordability." Gilead's subsequent hepatitis C drug Harvoni® was introduced to the market at a still higher cost of $94,500. Who benefits when drugs are priced so high? Not the 85 percent of Americans with hepatitis C who are still not able to afford treatment.
High Drug Prices forces patients to go underground for drugs.
AT Medicare CP – won't cover Drugs – CP can't fiat coverage Bryant 11 Clifton Bryant 2011 "The Routledge Handbook of Deviant Behaviour" (former professor of sociology at VA Tech)Elmer Now, the field of medicine is able to achieve seemingly miraculous results, through organ transplantation, reviving patients who have been "clinically" dead, and curing supposedly "incurable diseases." Medical miracles are not cheap, however, and the costs of medical care and drugs have risen (and continue to rise) at a near-astronomical rate. Consequently, neither private medical insurance plans nor Medicare will now cover certain procedures, treatments, and medicines. In the future, with continuing reform of the US healthcare system, even fewer procedures, treatments, and medications might will be covered. Certainly, some medical treatment will be "rationed," and particular categories of people (such as the elderly) may be systematically denied the coverage they need. As a result of all this, medical- and health-related crime and deviance will inevitably rise. Medical insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid fraud, which is already prevalent today, will increase exponentially. Smugglers will "bootleg" ever more pharmaceuticals into the US, and a large, thriving, nationwide black market will develop for those who cannot afford to buy uncovered medications. More medicines and diagnostic equipment will be stolen, and back- street medical procedures using such stolen equipment may well be offered for cash with no questions asked. Armed robberies of valuable pharmaceuticals from drug stores and super- markets will increase, too. Bribery to obtain insurance-uncovered or rationed medical care (or, indeed, any kind of medical care where demand exceeds supply) will likely mushroom. This is actually common in some countries around the world. Counterfeiting expensive pharmaceuticals will be prevalent, and medical frauds of all kinds will be very widespread. Many of these frauds will be directed at the elderly population as it continues to increase in size. The elderly will be particularly vulnerable because they are most likely to be denied coverage for certain medical procedures or treatments. For instance, private health insurance and Medicare will both refuse to cover a woman in her mid-80s for potentially life-saving heart-bypass surgery. As a result, she will be a prime candidate for victimization by medical fraud that offers her affordable, but bogus, treatment. There is already a thriving international black market in human organs (Schepper-Hughes 2009). Kidneys are obtained from poor individuals in impoverished countries for relatively modest sums of money. This cash allows the donors to purchase luxuries, such as a small automobile, educate their children, or simply sustain their families for a few months. The organs are sometimes transferred quickly to a hospital in the donor's own country for transplant surgery. But on other occasions they are transported to the US or another Western country. In the US, obtaining an organ for transplantation in this fashion is illegal. Nevertheless, the practice will undoubtedly increase greatly in the future. Where medical care and medicines become exorbitantly expensive, cheaper ways to obtain them, even when these are illicit, will be sought. Where there are shortages of medical care or medicines, perhaps because of rationing, other means of obtaining them, even if deviant, will surely be employed. As the cost and the difficulty of obtaining medical care and medicines increase, the implications for increased crime and deviance become almost limitless.
That kills Millions.
Greenberger 20 Phyllis E. Greenberger 12-3-2020 "Counterfeit Medicines Kill People" https://www.healthywomen.org/health-care-policy/counterfeit-medicines-kill-people/who-suffers-because-of-counterfeit-drugs (HealthWomen's Senior Vice President of Science and Health Policy)Elmer Over 1 million people die each year from fake drugs. COVID-19 Have you ever had a hard time getting a prescription filled? Or maybe you've had to wrestle with your insurance provider to get them to pay for a medication vital for your health? Worse, maybe you're one of the 27.5 million uninsured Americans who find it difficult to get health care, let alone obtain the prescription drugs you may need. If you've had any of these experiences, then perhaps you've turned to the internet to buy medications that would require a prescription. While legal online pharmacies do exist, many online pharmacies are fraudulent, selling counterfeit medications, and millions of people have fallen victim to these scammers. Make no mistake: Counterfeit medicine is not real. The active ingredients that help you stay healthy may be missing or diluted to levels that are no longer potent. This can be dangerous and even life-threatening, as people rely on their medications to keep them well, and sometimes even alive. Many counterfeit medicines aren't even drugs at all, but rather snake oil cures that make people sick — they may even contain dangerous ingredients such as heavy metals, highway paint or even rat poison. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that over 1 million people die each year from these substandard drugs. It's estimated that more than 10 of all pharmaceuticals in the global supply chain are counterfeit in normal times, and during COVID-19, the increased use of telehealth and the appearance of fraudulent doctors has led to a surge in drug fraud. In October of this year, Peter Pitts, president of the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest, a nonpartisan research organization, said pharmaceutical fakery was a "spreading cancer." Counterfeiting is a major problem that requires the federal government to step up to slow — and eventually prevent — its spread. It's also vital that consumers know exactly what's at stake when taking these fake drugs. Who suffers because of counterfeit drugs? Expensive prescription medications and generic drugs in nearly every therapeutic class may be counterfeited. Out of $4.3 billion worth of counterfeit medications seized between 2014 and 2016, 35 were marked as antibiotics. Some of the other most common culprits in counterfeit medicine are used to "treat" HIV/AIDS, erectile dysfunction and weight loss. No matter what condition or disease the counterfeit medication is intending to treat, the outcome can be disastrous. Counterfeit medications exacerbate other existing health crises. The United States, for example, is in the midst of an opioid epidemic that is killing 130 people per day. As of 2018, counterfeit drugs containing illegally imported fentanyl (a powerful opioid) had contributed to this tragedy by causing deaths in 26 states. The U.S. Department of Justice found that, in at least one case, these counterfeit drugs had been sold through a fraudulent online pharmacy.
Counterfeit Drugs cause Anti-Biotic Resistance.
Jahnke 19 Art Jahnke 1-14-2019 "How Bad Drugs Turn Treatable Diseases Deadly" https://www.bu.edu/articles/2019/how-bad-drugs-turn-treatable-diseases-deadly/ (Senior editor Art Jahnke began his career at the Real Paper, a Boston area alternative weekly. He has worked as a writer and editor at Boston Magazine, web editorial director at CXO Media, and executive editor in Marketing and Communications at Boston University, where his work was honored with many awards. Art has served on the editorial board of the Boston Review and has taught at Harvard University summer school and Emerson College.)Elmer Four decades later as a Boston University professor of biomedical engineering and materials science and engineering, Zaman was reminded of the dangers of low-quality drugs in his native country when he learned that more than 200 people in the city of Lahore died after being treated with an adulterated version of a hypertension drug. That event, in 2012, altered the course of Zaman's research. Now, he focuses on the global problem of "substandard drugs," poorly made medicines containing ingredients that are either ineffective or toxic. His most recent discovery has startling implications for our understanding of drug resistance: a low-quality version of rifampin, a broad spectrum antibiotic typically used as the first line of defense to treat tuberculosis, can greatly contribute to the development of drug-resistant infections. The findings, published in Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, are particularly pressing because drug-resistant TB is an increasing problem worldwide. Of the 10 million new cases of tuberculosis in 2016, about 600,000 were rifampin resistant, requiring second-line treatments which come with increased toxicity. "There had not been a definitive study showing that lack of ~antibiotic~ quality leads to resistance," says Zaman, who is also a Howard Hughes Medical Institute Professor of Biomedical Engineering and International Health. "Now we are sure that it does, and it does with TB, a global problem that has become stubbornly hard to resolve." "We had always thought of this a scientific issue, but now it is also an ethical issue."Muhammad Zaman Zaman says substandard drugs, as well as drugs that are deliberate counterfeits, are all too common in developing nations. A recent survey by the World Health Organization found that in low- and middle-income countries, one in ten medicines is substandard or falsified. One contributing factor could be that government enforcement of safe manufacturing practices is feeble or nonexistent. In Pakistan, for example, a country of nearly 200 million people, only a handful of federal inspectors monitor the quality of drug manufacturing.
High Drug Prices pushes people into poverty – our internal is causal.
Hoban 10 Rose Hoban 9-13-2010 "High Cost of Medicine Pushes More People into Poverty" https://www.voanews.com/science-health/high-cost-medicine-pushes-more-people-poverty (spent more than six years as the health reporter for North Carolina Public Radio – WUNC, where she covered health care, state health policy, science and research with a focus on public health issues. She left to start North Carolina Health News after watching many of her professional peers leave or be laid off of their jobs, leaving NC with few people to cover this complicated and important topic. ALSO cites Laurens Niens who is a Health Researcher at Erasmus University Rotterdam)Elmer Health economist Laurens Niëns found that drugs needed to treat chronic diseases could be considered unaffordable for many people in poor countries. Medicines can be expensive and often make up a large portion of any family's health care budget. And the burden can be even greater for people in poor countries, where the cost of vital medicines can push them into poverty. The problem is growing as more people around the world are diagnosed with chronic diseases such as high blood pressure and diabetes. Being diagnosed with a chronic disease usually compells patients to seek treatment for a prolonged period of time. That increases the eventual price tag for health, says health economist Laurens Niëns at Erasmus University in the Netherlands. Niëns examined medication pricing data from the World Health Organization and also looked at data from the World Bank on household income in many countries. Using the data, he calculated how much people need to spend on necessities such as food, housing, education and medicines. "The medicines we looked at are medicines for patients who suffer from asthma, diabetes, hypertension and we looked at an adult respiratory infection," Niëns says. "Three conditions are for chronic diseases, which basically means that people need to procure those medicines each and every day." Niëns focused on the cost of medicine for those conditions. He found the essential drugs could be considered unaffordable for many people in poor countries - so much so that their cost often pushes people into abject poverty. "The proportion of the population that is living below the poverty line, plus the people that are being pushed below the poverty line, can reach up to 80 percent in some countries for some medicines," Niëns says. He points out that generic medicines - which are more affordable than brand-name medications - are often not available in the marketplace. And, according to Niëns, poor government policies can drive up the cost of medications. "For instance, a lot of governments actually tax medicines when they come into the country," he says. "~They~ have no standard for the markups on medicines through the distribution chain. So often, governments think they pay a good price for the medicines when they procure them from the producer. However, before such a medicine reaches a patient, markups are sometimes up to 1,000 percent."
This is a form of pharmaceutical capitalism – exploiting marginalized groups in the third world.
Lift Mode 17 3-10-2017 "Pharmaceutical Colonialism" https://medium.com/@liftmode/pharmaceutical-colonialism-3-ways-that-western-medicine-takes-from-indigenous-communities-3a9339b4f24f (We at Liftmode.com are a team of professionals from a variety of backgrounds, dedicated to the mission of providing the highest quality and highest purity nutritional health supplements on the market. We look specifically for the latest and most promising research in the fields of cognition enhancement, neuroscience and alternative health supplements, and develop commercial strategies to bring these technologies to the marketplace.)Elmer 3. Cost of medicine as a form of debt One of the biggest methods of extracting money from rural and indigenous communities is through increased costs of medication. Pharmaceutical colonialism often uses the premise of providing cheap medication for the world's neediest to acquire local knowledge and natural resources. This premise is pushed into society through advertising campaigns and processes like lobbying. However, those who benefit most are often the shareholders, and not the people who need help. An example was the 2009 Reuters report which found that nearly a million people were dying from malaria dying every year due to overly expensive medication. According to the report, Artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) can cost up to 65 times the daily minimum wage in countries that are most affected by malaria. These high prices come after the government subsidies which push them down as low as possible.~19~ Another famous and recent example was the businessman Martin Shkreli, who pushed the cost of an AIDS drug up from $13.50 to over $700 per pill. This created an outrage on social media and it highlighted the underlying mindset behind most pharmaceutical companies — profit above all. An interesting and disturbing source of information about this is the film Fire in the Blood, which documents how western pharmaceutical companies blocked the sale of cheap antiretroviral drugs to AIDS patients in Sub-Saharan Africa.~20~ "There is indeed a sense in which all modern medicine is engaged in a colonizing process… It can be seen in the increasing professionalization of medicine and the exclusion of 'folk' practitioners, in the close and often symbiotic relationship between medicine and the modern state, in the far-reaching claims made by medical science for its ability to prevent, control, and even eradicate human diseases."~21~ — D Arnold, Colonizing the Body, 1993 Pharmaceutical companies have been responsible for saving millions of lives due to their advances in medicine. However, the number of lives that have been lost due to the lack of affordability of medicine and the lack of equity and sharing of profits is estimated to be extremely high. Western capitalism has the potential to act as a new form of colonialism, and the modern medical method is one great way to extend the branches of capitalism into developing countries. The slums in Brazil highlight the blatant inequality between nations and people.
The Alternative to the Aff isn't no medicine but exploitive medicine – the Plan's orientation is a sequencing strategy to resistance.
Ahmed 20 A Kavum Ahmed 6-24-2020 "Decolonizing the vaccine" https://africasacountry.com/2020/06/decolonizing-the-vaccine (A. Kayum Ahmed is Division Director for Access and Accountability at the Open Society Public Health Program in New York and teaches at Columbia University Law School.)Duong+Elmer Reflecting on a potential COVID-19 vaccine trial during a television interview in April, a French doctor stated, "If I can be provocative, shouldn't we be doing this study in Africa, where there are no masks, no treatments, no resuscitation?" These remarks reflect a colonial view of Africa, reinforcing the idea that Africans are non-humans whose black bodies can be experimented on. This colonial perspective is also clearly articulated in the alliance between France, The Netherlands, Germany and Italy to negotiate priority access to the COVID-19 vaccine for themselves and the rest of Europe. In the Dutch government's announcement of the European vaccine coalition, they indicate that, "… the alliance is also working to make a portion of vaccines available to low-income countries, including in Africa." In the collective imagination of these European nations, Africa is portrayed as a site of redemption—a place where you can absolve yourself from the sins of "vaccine sovereignty," by offering a "portion of the vaccines" to the continent. Vaccine sovereignty reflects how European and American governments use public funding, supported by the pharmaceutical industry and research universities, to obtain priority access to potential COVID-19 vaccines. The concept symbolizes the COVID-19 vaccine (when it eventually becomes available) as an instrument of power deployed to exercise control over who will live and who must die. In order to counter vaccine sovereignty, we must decolonize the vaccine. Africans have a particular role to play in leading this decolonization process as subjects of colonialism and as objects of domination through coloniality. Colonialism, as an expansion of territorial dominance, and coloniality, as the continued expression of Western imperialism after colonization, play out in the vaccine development space, most notably on the African continent. So what does decolonizing the vaccine look like? And how do we decolonize something that does not yet exist? For Frantz Fanon, "Decolonization, which sets out to change the order of the world, is, obviously, a program of complete disorder." Acknowledging that the COVID-19 vaccine has been weaponized as an instrument of power by wealthy nations, decolonization requires a Fanonian program of radical re-ordering. In the context of vaccine sovereignty, this re-ordering necessitates the dismantling of the profit-driven biomedical system. This program starts with de-linking from Euro-American constructions of knowledge and power that reinforce vaccine sovereignty through the profit-driven biomedical system. Advocacy campaigns such as the "People's Vaccine", which calls for guaranteed free access to COVID-19 vaccines, diagnostics and treatments to everyone, everywhere, are a good start. Other mechanisms, such as the World Health Organization's COVID-19 Technology Access Pool, similarly supports universal access to COVID-19 health technologies as global public goods. Since less than 1 of vaccines consumed in Africa are manufactured on the continent, regional efforts to develop vaccine manufacturing capacity such as those led by the Africa Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as the Alliance of African Research Universities, must be supported. These efforts collectively advance delinking and move us closer toward the re-ordering of systems of power. The opportunity for disorder is paradoxically enabled by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has permitted moments of existential reflection in the midst of the crisis. A few months ago, a press release announcing the distribution of "a portion of the vaccines" to Africans, may have been lauded as European benevolence. But in the context of a pandemic that is more likely to kill black people, Africa's reliance on Europe for vaccine handouts is untenable, necessitating a re-examination of the systems of power that hold this colonial relationship in place. The Black African body appears to be good enough to be experimented on, but not worthy of receiving simultaneous access to the COVID-19 vaccine as Europeans. Consequently, Africans continue to feel the effects of colonialism and white supremacy, and understand the pernicious nature of European altruism. By reinforcing the current system of vaccine research, development and manufacturing, it has become apparent that European governments want to retain their colonial power over life and death in Africa through the COVID-19 vaccine. Resistance to this colonial power requires the decolonization of the vaccine.
1AC: Plan
Plan – The member nations of the World Trade Organization ought to reduce intellectual property protections for medicines by implementing a one-and-done approach for patent and exclusivity protection.
The Plan solves Evergreening.
Feldman 3 Robin Feldman 2-11-2019 "'One-and-done' for new drugs could cut patent thickets and boost generic competition" https://www.statnews.com/2019/02/11/drug-patent-protection-one-done/ (Arthur J. Goldberg Distinguished Professor of Law, Albert Abramson '54 Distinguished Professor of Law Chair, and Director of the Center for Innovation)SidK + Elmer I believe that one period of protection should be enough. We should make the legal changes necessary to prevent companies from building patent walls and piling up mountains of rights. This could be accomplished by a "one-and-done" approach for patent protection. Under it, a drug would receive just one period of exclusivity, and no more. The choice of which "one" could be left entirely in the hands of the pharmaceutical company, with the election made when the FDA approves the drug. Perhaps development of the drug went swiftly and smoothly, so the remaining life of one of the drug's patents is of greatest value. Perhaps development languished, so designation as an orphan drug or some other benefit would bring greater reward. The choice would be up to the company itself, based on its own calculation of the maximum benefit. The result, however, is that a pharmaceutical company chooses whether its period of exclusivity would be a patent, an orphan drug designation, a period of data exclusivity (in which no generic is allowed to use the original drug's safety and effectiveness data), or something else — but not all of the above and more. Consider Suboxone, a combination of buprenorphine and naloxone for treating opioid addiction. The drug's maker has extended its protection cliff eight times, including obtaining an orphan drug designation, which is intended for drugs that serve only a small number of patients. The drug's first period of exclusivity ended in 2005, but with the additions its protection now lasts until 2024. That makes almost two additional decades in which the public has borne the burden of monopoly pricing, and access to the medicine may have been constrained. Implementing a one-and-done approach in conjunction with FDA approval underscores the fact that these problems and solutions are designed for pharmaceuticals, not for all types of technologies. That way, one-and-done could be implemented through legislative changes to the FDA's drug approval system, and would apply to patents granted going forward. One-and-done would apply to both patents and exclusivities. A more limited approach, a baby step if you will, would be to invigorate the existing patent obviousness doctrine as a way to cut back on patent tinkering. Obviousness, one of the five standards for patent eligibility, says that inventions that are obvious to an expert or the general public can't be patented. Either by congressional clarification or judicial interpretation, many pile-on patents could be eliminated with a ruling that the core concept of the additional patent is nothing more than the original formulation. Anything else is merely an obvious adaptation of the core invention, modified with existing technology. As such, the patent would fail for being perfectly obvious. Even without congressional action, a more vigorous and robust application of the existing obviousness doctrine could significantly improve the problem of piled-up patents and patent walls. Pharmaceutical companies have become adept at maneuvering through the system of patent and non-patent rights to create mountains of rights that can be applied, one after another. This behavior lets drug companies keep competitors out of the market and beat them back when they get there. We shouldn't be surprised at this. Pharmaceutical companies are profit-making entities, after all, that face pressure from their shareholders to produce ever-better results. If we want to change the system, we must change the incentives driving the system. And right now, the incentives for creating patent walls are just too great.
Reforming the Patent Process would lower Drug Prices and incentivize Pharma Innovation by revitalizing the Market.
Stanbrook 13, Matthew B. "Limiting "evergreening" for a better balance of drug innovation incentives." (2013): 939-939. (MD (University of Toronto) PhD (University of Toronto))Elmer At issue in the Indian case was "evergreening," a now widespread practice by the pharmaceutical industry designed to extend the monopoly on an existing drug by modifying it and seeking new patents.2 Currently, half of all drugs patented in Canada have multiple subsequent patents, extending the lifetime of the original patent by about 8 years.3 Manufacturers, in defence of these practices, predictably tout the advantages of new versions of their products, which often represent more potent isomers or salts of the original drugs, longer-lasting formulations or improved delivery systems that make adherence easier or more convenient. But the new versions are by definition "me too" drugs, and demonstration that the resulting incremental benefits in efficacy and safety are clinically meaningful is often lacking. Moreover, the original drugs have often been "blockbusters" used for years to improve the health of millions of patients. It seems hard to argue convincingly why such beneficial drugs require an upgrade, often just before their patents expire. Rather than the marginal benefits accrued from tinkering with already effective agents, patients worldwide are in desperate need of new classes of pharmaceuticals for the great many health conditions for which treatments are presently inadequate or entirely lacking. But developing truly innovative drugs is undeniably a high-risk venture. It is important and necessary that pharmaceutical companies continue to take these risks, because they are usually the only entities with sufficient resources to do so. Therefore, companies must continue to perceive sufficient incentives to continue investing in innovation. Indeed, there is evidence that the prospect of future evergreening has become part of the incentive calculation for innovative drug development.4 But surely it is perverse to extend unpredictably a period of patent protection that the government intended to be clearly defined and predictable, and to maintain incentives that drive companies to divert their drug-development resources away from innovation. Current patent legislation may not be optimal for striking the right balance between encouraging innovation and facilitating profiteering. Given the broad societal importance of patent legislation, ongoing research to enable active governance of this issue should be a national priority. In the last decade, Canada's laws have been among the friendliest toward evergreening in the world.5 We should now reflect on whether this is really in our national interest. Governments, including Canada's, would do well to take inspiration from India's example and tighten regulations that currently facilitate evergreening. This might involve denying future patents for modifications that currently would receive one. An overall reduction in the duration of all secondary patents on a therapy might also be considered. Globally, a more flexible and individualized approach to the length of drug patents might be a more effective strategy to align corporate incentives with population health needs. Limits on evergreening would likely reduce the extensive patent litigation that contributes to the high prices of generic drugs in Canada.3 Reducing economic pressure on generic drug companies may facilitate current provincial initiatives to lower generic drug prices. As opportunities to generate revenue from evergreening are eliminated, research-based pharmaceutical companies would be left with no choice but to invest more in innovative drug development to maintain their profits.
1AC: Method
Debate is imperfect, but only our interpretation can harness legal education to understand the law's strategic reversibility paired with intellectual survival skills.
Archer 18, Deborah N. "Political Lawyering for the 21st Century." Denv. L. Rev. 96 (2018): 399. (Associate Professor of Clinical Law at NYU School of Law)Elmer Political justice lawyers must be able to break apart a systemic problem into manageable components. The complexity of social problems, can cause law students, and even experienced political lawyers, to become overwhelmed. In describing his work challenging United States military and economic interventions abroad, civil rights advocate and law professor Jules Lobel wrote of this process: "Our foreign-policy litigation became a sort of Sisyphean quest as we maneuvered through a hazy maze cluttered with gates. Each gate we unlocked led to yet another that blocked our path, with the elusive goal of judicial relief always shrouded in the twilight mist of the never-ending maze."144 Pulling apart a larger, systemic problem into its smaller components can help elucidate options for advocacy. An instructive example is the use of excessive force by police officers against people of color. Every week seems to bring a new video featuring graphic police violence against Black men and women. Law students are frequently outraged by these incidents. But the sheer frequency of these videos and lack of repercussions for perpetrators overwhelm those students just as often. What can be done about a problem so big and so pervasive? To move toward justice, advocates must be able to break apart the forces that came together to lead to that moment: intentional discrimination, implicit bias, ineffective training, racial segregation, lack of economic opportunity, the over-policing of minority communities, and the failure to invest in non-criminal justice interventions that adequately respond to homelessness, mental illness, and drug addiction. None of these component problems are easily addressed, but breaking them apart is more manageable—and more realistic—than acting as though there is a single lever that will solve the problem. After identifying the component problems, advocates can select one and repeat the process of breaking down that problem until they get to a point of entry for their advocacy. 2. Identifying Advocacy Alternatives As discussed earlier, political justice lawyering embraces litigation, community organizing, interdisciplinary collaboration, legislative reform, public education, direct action, and other forms of advocacy to achieve social change. After parsing the underlying issues, lawyers need to identify what a lawyer can and should do on behalf of impacted communities and individuals, and this includes determining the most effective advocacy approach. Advocates must also strategize about what can be achieved in the short term versus the long term. The fight for justice is a marathon, not a sprint. Many law students experience frustration with advocacy because they expect immediate justice now. They have read the opinion in Brown v. Board of Education, but forget that the decision was the result of a decades-long advocacy strategy.145 Indeed, the decision itself was no magic wand, as the country continues to work to give full effect to the decision 70 years hence. Advocates cannot only fight for change they will see in their lifetime, they must also fight for the future.146 Change did not happen over night in Brown and lasting change cannot happen over night today. Small victories can be building blocks for systemic reform, and advocates must learn to see the benefit of short-term responsiveness as a component of long-term advocacy. Many lawyers subscribe to the American culture of success, with its uncompromising focus on immediate accomplishments and victories.147 However, those interested in social justice must adjust their expectations. Many pivotal civil rights victories were made possible by the seemingly hopeless cases that were brought, and lost, before them.148 In the fight for justice, "success inheres in the creation of a tradition, of a commitment to struggle, of a narrative of resistance that can inspire others similarly to resist."149 Again, Professor Lobel's words are instructive: "the current commitment of civil rights groups, women's groups, and gay and lesbian groups to a legal discourse to legal activism to protect their rights stems in part from the willingness of activists in political and social movements in the nineteenth century to fight for rights, even when they realized the courts would be unsympathetic."150 Professor Lobel also wrote about Helmuth James Von Moltke, who served as legal advisor to the German Armed Services until he was executed in 1945 by Nazis: "In battle after losing legal battle to protect the rights of Poles, to save Jews, and to oppose German troops' war crimes, he made it clear that he struggled not just to win in the moment but to build a future."151 3. Creating a Hierarchy of Values Advocates challenging complex social justice problems can find it difficult to identify the correct solution when one of their social justice values is in conflict with another. A simple example: a social justice lawyer's demands for swift justice for the victim of police brutality may conflict with the lawyer's belief in the officer's fundamental right to due process and a fair trial. While social justice lawyers regularly face these dilemmas, law students are not often forced to struggle through them to resolution in real world scenarios—to make difficult decisions and manage the fallout from the choices they make in resolving the conflict. Engaging in complex cases can force students to work through conflicts, helping them to articulate and sharpen their beliefs and goals, forcing them to clearly define what justice means broadly and in the specific context presented. Lawyers advocating in the tradition of political lawyering anticipate the inevitable conflict between rights, and must seek to resolve these conflicts through a "hierarchy of values."152 Moreover, in creating the hierarchy, the perspectives of those directly impacted and marginalized should be elevated "because it is in listening to and standing with the victims of injustice that the need for critical thinking and action become clear."153 One articulation of a hierarchy of values asserts "people must be valued more than property. Human rights must be valued more than property rights. Minimum standards of living must be valued more than the privileged liberty of accumulated political, social and economic power. Finally, the goal of increasing the political, social, and economic power of those who are left out of the current arrangements must be valued more than the preservation of the existing order that created and maintains unjust privilege."154 C. Rethinking the Role of the Clinical Law Professor: Moving From Expert to Colleague Law students can learn a new dimension of lawyering by watching their clinical law professor work through innovative social justice challenges alongside them, as colleagues. This is an opportunity not often presented in work on small cases where the clinical professor is so deeply steeped in the doctrine and process, the case is largely routine to her and she can predict what is to come and adjust supervision strategies accordingly.155 However, when engaged in political lawyering on complex and novel legal issues, both the student and the teacher may be on new ground that transforms the nature of the student-teacher relationship. A colleague often speaks about acknowledging the persona professors take on when they teach and how that persona embodies who they want to be in the classroom—essentially, whenever law professors teach they establish a character. The persona that a clinical professor adopts can have a profound effect on the students, because the character is the means by which the teacher subtly models for the student—without necessarily ever saying so— the professional the teacher holds herself to be and the student may yet become. In working on complex matters where the advocacy strategy is unclear, the clinical professor makes himself vulnerable by inviting students to witness his struggles as they work together to develop the most effective strategy. By making clear that he does not have all of the answers, partnering with his students to discover the answers, and sharing his own missteps along the way, a clinical law professor can reclaim opportunities to model how an experienced attorney acquires new knowledge and takes on new challenges that may be lost in smaller case representation.156 Clinical law faculty who wholeheartedly subscribe to the belief that professors fail to optimize student learning if students do not have primary control of a matter from beginning to end may view a decision to work in true partnership with students on a matter as a failure of clinical legal education. Indeed, this partnership model will inevitably impact student autonomy and ownership of the case.157 But, there is a unique value to a professor working with her student as a colleague and partner to navigate subject matter new to both student and professor.158 In this relationship, the professor can model how to exercise judgment and how to learn from practice: to independently learn new areas of law; to consult with outside colleagues, experts in the field, and community members without divulging confidential information; and to advise a client in the midst of ones own learning process.159 III. A Pedagogical Course Correction "If it offends your sense of justice, there's a cause of action." - Florence Roisman, Professor, Indiana University School of Law160 In response to the shifts in my students' perspectives on racism and systemic discrimination, their reluctance to tackle systemic problems, their conditioned belief that strategic litigation should be a tool of last resort, and my own discomfort with reliance on small cases in my clinical teaching, I took a step back in my own practice. How could I better teach my students to be champions for justice even when they are overwhelmed by society's injustice; to challenge the complex and systemic discrimination strangling minority communities, and to approach their work in the tradition of political lawyering. I reflected not only on my teaching, but also on my experiences as a civil rights litigator, to focus on what has helped me to continue doing the work despite the frustrations and difficulties. I realized I was spending too much time teaching my students foundational lawyering skills, and too little time focused on the broader array of skills I knew to be critical in the fight for racial justice. We regularly discussed systemic racism during my clinic seminars in order to place the students' work on behalf of their clients within a larger context. But by relying on carefully curated small cases I was inadvertently desensitizing my students to a lawyer's responsibility to challenge these systemic problems, and sending the message that the law operates independently from this background and context. I have an obligation to move beyond teaching my students to be "good soldiers for the status quo" to ensuring that the next generation is truly prepared to fight for justice.161 And, if my teaching methods are encouraging the reproduction of the status quo it is my obligation to develop new interventions.162 Jane Aiken's work on "justice readiness" is instructive on this point. To graduate lawyers who better understand their role in advancing justice, Jane Aiken believes clinics should move beyond providing opportunities for students to have a social justice experience to promoting a desire and ability to do justice.163 She suggests creating disorienting moments by selecting cases where students have no outside authority on which to rely, requiring that they draw from their own knowledge base and values to develop a legal theory.164 Disorienting moments give students: experiences that surprise them because they did not expect to experience what they experienced. This can be as simple as learning that the maximum monthly welfare benefit for a family of four is about $350. Or they can read a ~ ~ Supreme Court case that upheld Charles Carlisle's conviction because a wyer missed a deadline by one day even though the district court found there was insufficient evidence to prove his guilt. These facts are often disorienting. They require the student to step back and examine why they thought that the benefit amount would be so much more, or that innocence would always result in release. That is an amazing teaching moment. It is at this moment that we can ask students to examine their own privilege, how it has made them assume that the world operated differently, allowing them to be oblivious to the indignities and injustices that occur every day.165 Giving students an opportunity to "face the fact that they cannot rely on 'the way things are' and meet the needs of their clients" is a powerful approach to teaching and engaging students.166 But, complex problems call for larger and more sustained disorienting moments. Working with students on impact advocacy in the model of political lawyering provides a range of opportunities to immerse students in disorienting moments. A. Immersing Students in "Disorienting Moments": Race, Poverty, and Pregnancy Today, I try to immerse my students in disorienting moments to make them justice ready and move them in the direction of political lawyering. My clinic docket has always included a small number of impact litigation matters. However, in the past these cases were carefully screened to ensure that they involved discrete legal issues and client groups. In addition, our representation always began after our outside co-counsel had already conducted an initial factual investigation, identified the core legal issues, and developed an overall advocacy strategy, freeing my students from these responsibilities. Now, my clinic takes on impact matters at earlier stages where the strategies are less clear and the legal questions are multifaceted and ill- defined. This mirrors the experiences of practicing social justice lawyers, who faced with an injustice, must discover the facts, identify the legal claims, develop strategy, cultivate allies, and ultimately determine what can be done—with the knowledge that "nothing" is not an option. This approach provides students with the space to wrestle with larger, systemic issues in a structured and supportive educational environment, taking on cases that seem difficult to resolve and working to bring some justice to that situation. They are also gaining experience in many of the fundamentals of political lawyering advocacy. Recently, my students began work on a new case. Several public and private hospitals in low-income New York City neighborhoods are drug testing pregnant women or new mothers without their knowledge or informed consent. This practice reflects a disturbing convergence between racial and economic disparities, and can have a profound impact on the lives of the poor women of color being tested at precisely the time when they are most in need of support. We began our work when a community organization reached out to the clinic and spoke to us about complaints that hospitals around New York City were regularly testing pregnant women—almost exclusively women of color—for drug use during prenatal check ups, during the chaos and stress of labor and delivery, or during post-delivery. The hospitals report positive test results to the City's Administration for Children's Services ("ACS"), which is responsible for protecting children from abuse and neglect, for further action.167 Most of the positive tests are for marijuana use. After a report is made, ACS commences an investigation to determine whether child abuse or neglect has taken place, and these investigations trigger inquiries into every aspect of a family's life. They can lead to the institution of child neglect proceedings, and potentially to the temporary or permanent removal of children from the household. Even where that extreme result is avoided, an ACS investigation can open the door to the City's continued, and potentially unwelcome, involvement in the lives of these families. These policies reflect deeply inequitable practices. Investigating a family after a positive drug test is not necessarily a bad thing. After all, ACS offers a number of supportive services that can help stabilize and strengthen vulnerable families. And of course, where children's safety is at risk, removal may sometimes be the appropriate result. However, hospitals do not conduct regular drug tests of mothers in all New York City communities. Private hospitals in wealthy areas rarely test pregnant women or new mothers for drug misuse. In contrast, at hospitals serving poor women, drug testing is routine. Race and class should not determine whether such testing, and the consequences that result, take place. Investigating the New York City drug-testing program immersed the students in disorienting moments at every stage of their work. During our conversations, the students regularly expressed surprise and discomfort with the hospitals' practices. They were disturbed that public hospitals— institutions on which poor women and women of color rely for something as essential as health care—would use these women's pregnancy as a point of entry to control their lives.168 They struggled to explain how the simple act of seeking medical care from a hospital serving predominantly poor communities could deprive patients of the respect, privacy, and legal protections enjoyed by pregnant women in other parts of the City. And, they were shocked by the way institutions conditioned poor women to unquestioningly submit to authority.169 Many of the women did not know that they were drug tested until the hospital told them about the positive result and referred them to ACS. Still, these women were not surprised: that kind of disregard, marginalization, and lack of consent were a regular aspect of their lives as poor women of color. These women were more concerned about not upsetting ACS than they were about the drug testing. That so many of these women could be resigned to such a gross violation of their rights was entirely foreign to most of my students. B. Advocacy in the Face of Systemic Injustice Although the students are still in the early stages of their work, they have already engaged in many aspects of political justice lawyering. They approached their advocacy focused on the essence of political lawyering— enabling poor, pregnant women of color who enjoy little power or respect to claim and enjoy their rights, and altering the allocation of power from government agencies and institutions back into the hands of these women. They questioned whose interests these policies and practices were designed to serve, and have grounded their work in a vision of an alternative societal construct in which their clients and the community are respected and supported. The clinic students were given an opportunity to learn about social, legal, and administrative systems as they simultaneously explored opportunities to change those systems. The students worked to identify the short and long term goals of the impacted women as well the goals of the larger community, and to think strategically about the means best suited to accomplish these goals. And, importantly, while collaborating with partners from the community and legal advocacy organizations, the students always tried to keep these women centered in their advocacy. In breaking down the problem of drug testing poor women of color, the students worked through an issue that lives at the intersection of reproductive freedom, family law, racial justice, economic inequality, access to health care, and the war on drugs. In their factual investigation, which included interviews of impacted women, advocates, and hospital personnel, and the review of records obtained through Freedom of Information Law requests, the students began to break down this complex problem. They explored the disparate treatment of poor women and women of color by health care providers and government entities, implicit and explicit bias in healthcare, the disproportionate referral of women of color to ACS, the challenges of providing medical services to underserved communities, the meaning of informed consent, the diminished rights of people who rely on public services, and the criminalization of poverty. The students found that list almost as overwhelming as the initial problem itself, but identifying the components allowed the students to dig deeper and focus on possible avenues of challenge and advocacy. It was also critically important to make the invisible forces visible, even if the law currently does not provide a remedy. Working on this case also gave the students and me the opportunity to work through more nuanced applications of some of the lawyering concepts that were introduced in their smaller cases, including client-centered lawyering when working on behalf of the community; large-scale fact investigation; transferring their "social justice knowledge" to different contexts; crafting legal and factual narratives that are not only true to the communities' experience, but can persuade and influence others; and how to develop an integrated advocacy plan. The students frequently asked whether we should even pursue the matter, questioning whether this work was client- centered when it was no longer the most pressing concern for many of the women we met. These doubts opened the door to many rich discussions: can we achieve meaningful social change if we only address immediate crises; can we progress on larger social justice issues without challenging their root causes; how do we recognize and address assumptions advocates may have about what is best for a client; and how can we keep past, present, and future victims centered in our advocacy? The work on the case also forced the clinic students to work through their own understanding of a hierarchy of values. They struggled with their desire to support these community hospitals and the public servants who work there under difficult circumstances on the one hand, and their desire to protect women, potentially through litigation, from discriminatory practices. They also struggled to reconcile their belief that hospitals should take all reasonable steps to protect the health and safety of children, as well as their emotional reaction to pregnant mothers putting their unborn children in harms way by using illegal drugs against the privacy rights of poor and marginalized women. They were forced to pause and think deeply about what justice would look like for those mothers, children, and communities. CONCLUSION America continues to grapple with systemic injustice. Political justice lawyering offers powerful strategies to advance the cause of justice—through integrated advocacy comprising the full array of tools available to social justice advocates, including strategic systemic reform litigation. It is the job of legal education to prepare law students to become effective lawyers. For those aspiring to social justice that should include training students to utilize the tools of political justice lawyers. Clinical legal offers a tremendous opportunity to teach the next generation of racial and social justice advocates how to advance equality in the face of structural inequality, if only it will embrace the full array of available tools to do so. In doing so, clinical legal education will not only prepare lawyers to enact social change, they can inspire lawyers overwhelmed by the challenges of change. In order to provide transformative learning experiences, clinical education must supplement traditional pedagogical tools and should consider political lawyering's potential to empower law students and communities.
Reject monocausal explanations of the world: they ignore complexity/are the product of epistemic closure
Sil and Katzenstein, 10(Rudra, PoliSci@Penn, Peter J., Gov@Cornell, Analytic Eclecticism in the Study of World Politics: Reconfiguring Problems and Mechanisms across Research Traditions Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 8, No. 2 (June 2010), pp. 411-431) recut CVHS SR This is not the first call for something resembling eclecticism. In addition to Lindblom and Cohen, numerous scholars have issued pleas for a more practically useful social scienceor, following Aristotle, a "phronetic" social science oriented more toward social commentary and political action than toward inter-paradigm debates.3 In international relations, prominent scholars, some even identified with particular research traditions, have acknowledged the need for incorporating elements from other approaches in order to fashion more usable and more comprehensive forms of knowledge. For example, Kenneth Waltz, whose name would become synonymous with neo realism, argued in his earlier work: "The prescriptions directly derived from a single image ~of international rela tions~ are incomplete because they are based upon partial analyses. The partial quality of each image sets up a tension that drives one toward inclusion of the others . . . One is led to search for the inclusive nexus of causes."4 An ardent critic of realist theory, Andrew Moravcsik, would have to agree with Waltz on this point: "The outbreak of World Wars I and II, the emergence of international human rights norms, and the evolution of the European Union, for example, are surely important enough events to merit comprehensive explanation even at the expense of theoretical parsimony."5 Similarly, in an important symposium on the role of theory in comparative politics, several prominent scholars emphasized the virtues of an "eclectic combination" of diverse theoretical perspectives in making sense of cases, cautioning against the excessive "simplifications" required to apply a single theoretical lens to grasp the manifold complexities on the ground.6 As far as programmatic statements go, these views are all consistent with the spirit of analytic eclecticism. Whether these positions are readily evident in research practice, how ever, is quite another matter. For the most part, social scientific research is still organized around particular research traditions or scholarly communities, each marked by its own epistemic commitments, its own theoretical vocabulary, its own standards, and its own conceptions of "progress." A more effective case for eclectic scholarship requires more than statements embracing intellectual pluralism or multicaiisal explanation. It requires an alternative understanding of research practice that is coherent enough to be distinguishable from conventional scholarship and yet flexible enough to accommodate a wide range of problems, concepts, methods, and causal arguments. We have sought to systematically articulate such an understanding in the form of "analytic eclecticism," emphasizing its pragmatist ethos, its orientation towards preexisting styles and schools of research, and its distinctive value added in relating aca demic debates to concrete matters of policy and practice. Below, we first offer a brief discussion of the benefits and limitations of research traditions and consider how analytic eclecticism complements existing traditions by seeking to leverage and integrate conceptual and theoret ical elements in multiple traditions. In the next three sec tions, we elaborate on three distinguishing features of eclectic scholarship: its pragmatist ethos; its open-ended approach to identifying problems; and its expansive under standing of causal mechanisms and their complex inter actions in diverse contexts. We then consider a small sample of work in comparative politics and international rela tions that illustrates the combinatorial potential of eclec tic scholarship. The conclusion considers the risks and costs of analytic eclecticism, but views these as acceptable in light of the potential gains of accommodating eclectic approaches that complement and engage tradition-bound research in the social sciences.7 (412)
Colonialism isn't inevitable – your theory foreclose liberation and reify Settler Dominance
Busbridge 18—Research Fellow at the Centre for Dialogue, La Trobe University (Rachel, "Israel-Palestine and the Settler Colonial 'Turn': From Interpretation to Decolonization," Theory, Culture and Society Vol 35, Issue 1, 2018, dml)Re-cut by Elmer The prescription for decolonisation—that is, a normative project committed to the liberation of the colonised and the overturning of colonial relationships of power (Kohn and McBride, 2011: 3)—is indeed one of the most counterhegemonic implications of the settler colonial paradigm as applied to IsraelPalestine, potentially shifting it from a diagnostic frame to a prognostic one which offers a 'proposed solution to the problem, or at least a plan of attack' (Benford and Snow, 2000: 616). What, however, does the settler colonial paradigm offer by way of envisioning decolonisation? As Veracini (2007) notes, while settler colonial studies scholars have sought to address the lack of attention paid to the experiences of Indigenous peoples in conventional historiographical accounts of decolonisation (which have mostly focused on settler independence and the loosening of ties to the 'motherland'), there is nevertheless a 'narrative deficit' when it comes to imagining settler decolonisation. While Veracini (2007) relates this deficit to a matter of conceptualisation, it is apparent that the structural perspective of the paradigm in many ways closes down possibilities of imagining the type of social and political transformation to which the notion of decolonisation aspires. In this regard, there is a worrying tendency (if not tautological discrepancy) in settler colonial studies, where the only solution to settler colonialism is decolonisation—which a faithful adherence to the paradigm renders largely unachievable, if not impossible. To understand why this is the case, it is necessary to return to Wolfe's (2013a: 257) account of settler colonialism as guided by a 'zero-sum logic whereby settler societies, for all their internal complexities, uniformly require the elimination of Native alternatives'. The structuralism of this account has immense power as a means of mapping forms of injustice and indignity as well as strategies of resistance and refusal, and Wolfe is careful to show how transmutations of the logic of elimination are complex, variable, discontinuous and uneven. Yet, in seeking to elucidate the logic of elimination as the overarching historical force guiding settler-native relations there is an operational weakness in the theory, whereby such a logic is simply there, omnipresent and manifest even when (and perhaps especially when) it appears not to be; the settler colonial studies scholar need only read it into a situation or context. It thus hurtles from the past to the present into the future, never to be fully extinguished until the native is, or until history itself ends. There is thus a powerful ontological (if not metaphysical) dimension to Wolfe's account, where there is such thing as a 'settler will' that inherently desires the elimination of the native and the distinction between the settler and native can only ever be categorical, founded as it is on the 'primal binarism of the frontier' (2013a: 258). It is here that the differences between earlier settler colonial scholarship on Israel-Palestine and the recent settler colonial turn come into clearest view. While Jamal Hilal's (1976) Marxist account of the conflict, for instance, engaged Palestinians and Jewish Israelis in terms of their relations to the means of production, Wolfe's account brings its own ontology: the bourgeoisie/proletariat distinction becomes that of settler/native, and the class struggle the struggle between settler, who seeks to destroy and replace the native, and native, who can only ever push back. Indeed, if the settler colonial paradigm views history in similar teleological terms to the Marxist framework, it does not offer the same hopeful vision of a liberated future. After all, settler colonialism has only one story to tell—'either total victory or total failure' (Veracini, 2007). Veracini's attempt to disaggregate different forms of settler decolonisation is revealing of the difficulties that come along with this zero-sum perspective. It is significant to note that beyond settler evacuation (which may decolonise territory, he cautions, but not necessarily relationships) the picture he paints is a relatively bleak one. For Veracini (2011: 5), claims for decolonisation from Indigenous peoples in settler societies can take two broad forms: an 'anticolonial rhetoric expressing a demand for indigenous sovereign independence and self-determination… and an "ultra"-colonial one that seeks a reconstituted partnership with the ~settler state~ and advocates a return to a relatively more respectful middle ground and "treaty" conditions'. While both, he suggests, are tempting strategies in the struggle for change, though 'ultimately ineffective against settler colonial structures of domination' (2011: 5), it is the latter strategy that invites Veracini's most scathing assessment. As he writes, under settler colonial conditions the independent polity is the settler polity and sanctioning the equal rights of indigenous peoples has historically been used as a powerful weapon in the denial of indigenous entitlement and in the enactment of various forms of coercive assimilation. This decolonisation actually enhances the subjection of indigenous peoples… it is at best irrelevant and at worst detrimental to indigenous peoples in settler societies (2011: 6-7). The 'primal binarism of the frontier' plays a particularly ambivalent role in Veracini's (2011: 6) formulation, where the categorical distinction between settler and native obstructs the 'possibility of a genuinely decolonised relationship' (by virtue of its lopsidedness) yet is a necessary political strategy to guard against the absorption of Indigenous people into the settler fold, which would represent settler colonialism's final victory. The battle here is between a 'settler colonialism ~that~ is designed to produce a fundamental discontinuity as its "logic of elimination" runs its course until it actually extinguishes the settler colonial relation' and an anti-colonial struggle that 'must aim to keep the settler-indigenous relationship going' (2011: 7). In other words, the categorical distinction produced by the frontier must be maintained in order to struggle against its effects. Given the lack of options presented to Indigenous peoples by Veracini (2014: 315), his conclusion that settler decolonisation demands a 'radical, post-settler colonial passage' is perhaps not surprising – although he has 'no suggestion as to how this may be achieved and ~is~ pessimistic about its feasibility'. Scholars have long reckoned with the ambivalence of the settler colonial situation, which is simultaneously colonial and postcolonial, colonising and decolonising (Curthoys, 1999: 288). Given the generally dreadful Fourth World circumstances facing many Indigenous peoples in settler societies, it could be argued that there is good reason for such pessimism. The settler colonial paradigm, in this sense, offers an important caution against celebratory narratives of progress. Wolfe (1994), it must be recalled, wrote the original articulation of his thesis precisely against the idea of 'historical rupture' that dominated in Australia post-Mabo, and was thus as much a scholarly intervention as it was a political challenge to the idea of Australia having broken with its colonial past. Nonetheless, the fatalism of the settler colonial paradigm—whereby decolonisation is by and large put beyond the realms of possibility—has seen it come under considerable critique for reifying settler colonialism as a transhistorical meta-structure where colonial relations of domination are inevitable (Macoun and Strakosch, 2013: 435; Snelgrove et al., 2014: 9). Not only does Wolfe's ontology erase contingency, heterogeneity and (crucially) agency (Merlan, 1997; Rowse, 2014), but its polarised framework effectively 'puts politics to death' (Svirsky, 2014: 327). In response to such critiques, Wolfe (2013a: 213) suggests that 'the repudiation of binarism' may just represent a 'settler perspective'. However, as Elizabeth Povinelli (1997: 22) has astutely shown, it is in this regard that the totalising logic of Wolfe's structure of invasion rests on a disciplinary gesture where 'any discussion which does not insist on the polarity of the ~settler~ colonial project' is assimilationist, worse still, genocidal in effect if not intent. Any attempt to 'explore the dialogical or hybrid nature of colonial subjectivity'—which would entail working beyond the bounds of absolute polarity—is disciplined as complicit in the settler colonial project itself, leaving 'the only nonassimilationist position one that adheres strictly and solely to a critique of ~settler~ state discourse'. This gesture not only disallows the possibility of counter-publics and strategic alliances (even limited ones), but also comes dangerously close to 'resistance as acquiescence' insofar as the settler colonial studies scholar may malign the structures set in play by settler colonialism, but only from a safe distance unsullied by the messiness of ambivalences and contradictions of settler and Native subjectivities and relations. Opposition is thus left as our only option, but, as we know from critical anti-colonial and postcolonial scholarship, opposition in itself is not decolonisation.